Seeking Alpha

Pandora, Yelp soar following CFO presentations

  • Pandora (P +10.2%) CFO Mike Herring presented today at conferences hosted by Oppenheimer and Canaccord. Along the way, he declared his company refuses to comment on M&A rumors.
  • Yelp (YELP +6.8%), which had CFO Rob Krolik present at the Oppenheimer conference, is also up sharply.
  • Stifel started both Pandora and Yelp at Buy today, along with several other Internet names posting far more moderate gains. 10.5% of Pandora's float was shorted as of July 31, and 14% of Yelp's float was shorted.
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Comments (13)
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1282) | Send Message
     
    Glad to know bubble stocks go up on fake rumors, speculation, 500th analyst upgrade.

     

    Yet they always drop on fundamentals and real news. Why is that?

     

    YELP and Pandora moving the same pattern (which proves these stocks have nothing to do with fundamentals). Both stocks have rejected bullish breakouts in the past two pumps on a well defined bearish channel and I don't see recent one to have any weight. The game is 3 strikes and you're out. They will reverse very soon both have high institutional ownership and any squeeze will be responded by funds exiting stock as we get closer to end of QE.

     

    Like a ticking timebomb, Bears have time on their side.
    13 Aug 2014, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    I disagree, P shares still cheap even after today's rally.
    13 Aug 2014, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • AngleSideSide
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Apparently the CFO has learned not to comment on how improbable M&A is. Those statements about the 80% royalty bump for an acquirer were as boneheaded as it gets.

     

    Now we're back to the Pandora that I knew! Hellaciously volatile as we fly blind between earnings calls; instead moving on momentum which is totally disconnected from underlying business model fundamentals.
    13 Aug 2014, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • blake303
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    P is not cheap on any metric
    13 Aug 2014, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • NLTInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (345) | Send Message
     
    lol what a joke Pandora has been around for 5+ years and has yet to return a positive eps
    13 Aug 2014, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (1813) | Send Message
     
    @AngleSideSide,
    "80% royalty bump"
    That was merely a quote of CRB vs. pureplay costs. He went on to note that not one of Pandora's major competitors (Apple, iHeartRadio, etc) pays the high rate, they instead do a direct deal with record labels (as would a potential P buyer).

     

    @blake303,
    My DCF says it is, something echoed by many analysts. Though many assumptions are required and a wide range of price targets result, your look at "metrics", e.g., a look in the rear-view mirror, or at best 1 yr forward, is far worse. Here's a list of analysts price-targets and potential upside for P:

     

    Analyst Price_Target Difference from today
    ----------------------...
    PacificCrest 45 +59%
    FBN 45 +59%
    Canaccord 43 +52%
    GoldmanSachs 43 +52%
    J.P.Morgan 42 +48%
    BofA 41 +45%
    Needham 41 +45%
    Barrington 41 +45%
    BMO 38 +34%
    RBC 38 +34%
    Cowen 38 +34%
    B.Riley 38 +34%
    WellsFargo 37 +31%
    PiperJaffray 37 +31%
    Zachs 37 +31%
    MKM 35 +23%
    Wedbush 35 +23%
    Oppenheimer 35 +23%
    Maxim 35 +23%
    StifelNicholaus 34 +20%
    Suntrust 34 +20%
    CRT 32 +13%
    CreditSuisse 32 +13%
    RaymondJames 31 +9%
    Susquehanna 30 +6%
    Nomura 29 +2%
    MorganStanley 28 -1%
    FBR 28 -1%
    AlbertFried 20 -29%
    SingularResearch 17 -40%
    BTIG 10 -65%
    -------------- --- ---
    Average 34.5 +22%

     

    @NLTInvestor,
    Look forward. You must admit their monetization on mobile has been quite impressive (2013 full year mobile RPM was up +45% yoy), and P's continued pursuit of high CPM local ad market (double the price of nationals) will continue to eat into traditional radio ad dollars.
    13 Aug 2014, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1282) | Send Message
     
    Yet even Dgulick lowered his random price target from 70$ to 50$.

     

    Sounds bearish!
    13 Aug 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • blake303
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    You need cash flow before you can discount it. Cash is generated by strong business models, not unrealistic assumptions.

     

    Analysts are salesmen that are still owned by investment bankers despite Sarbanes Oxley. How else can you explain why only 6% of analyst recommendations are sell/underperform? Follow the cheerleaders at your own peril.
    13 Aug 2014, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Time & Model
    , contributor
    Comments (149) | Send Message
     
    @blake303,

     

    That is a fantastic statistic: "only 6% of analyst recommendations are sell/underperform"

     

    You don't happen to remember the source of that, do you?

     

    Best,
    T&M
    13 Aug 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1282) | Send Message
     
    According to this analyst tracking website:

     

    Ratings Breakdown: 3 Sell Rating(s), 5 Hold Rating(s), 18 Buy Rating(s)

     

    http://bit.ly/1rsJtR4

     

    Also whats wrong with this picture?

     

    http://bit.ly/1rsK2uf
    13 Aug 2014, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • blake303
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    T&M - My source: http://bit.ly/1pPxqhs
    14 Aug 2014, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1282) | Send Message
     
    The irony is that the fake takeover rumor ADDED 1 BILLION to market cap, now 6B. Definitely someone would buy this garbage now! What's an extra billion to make this garbage around 6-10x more expensive compared to Songza and beats acquisition.

     

    Anyone find that comedic?
    13 Aug 2014, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Time & Model
    , contributor
    Comments (149) | Send Message
     
    @manicdvln,

     

    It's comic now, it will be tragicomic later.

     

    Best,
    T&M
    13 Aug 2014, 06:30 PM Reply Like
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