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Barron's cover story this weekend basically calls a bottom to the bear, though not in quite so...

Barron's cover story this weekend basically calls a bottom to the bear, though not in quite so many words.
Comments (6)
  • DW Reid
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    But the WSJ's headline article currently says this: Dow 5000? It's a Bet
    That Looks Possible.
    8 Mar 2009, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • bearfund
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    The levels of indexes are becoming less and less relevant as companies sort themselves into winners and zombies. We're getting pretty close to the point at which the Citigroups and GMs of the world are obviously going to lose 100% more while a lot of quality companies have been beaten up excessively. The major indexes will fluctuate as the losers go to zero, the winners bounce, and the occasional big bankruptcy scares traders out of even healthy companies.

     

    Right now my benchmark is not $SPX but FLS, a smallish company that makes pumps and fluid control systems. Why would I choose something so obscure? Because it's an extremely profitable company (trailing P/E around 6) with a modest debt load that is showing growth and improvement in its business even through the recession. It's also down about 70% from its highs. To me that exemplifies an overshoot to the downside after some frothiness was removed. When FLS starts recovering to a more reasonable P/E in the 8-10 range, I'll be satisfied that the bottom is in for good companies even if BAC and C and GM keep falling and dragging down the indexes.

     

    Don't get caught watching the forest and miss out on the recovery in trees.
    8 Mar 2009, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • bricki
    , contributor
    Comments (1099) | Send Message
     
    Barron's calling a bottom is a bearish indicator.

     

    8 Mar 2009, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2000) | Send Message
     
    If they could come out to call a bottom, that ultimate bottom is probably somewhere below, when we'll look back and look down.

     

    As I related in SA last fall, and hopefully not to be fulfilled (as with almost most of my predictions), the bottom for the Dow is ~ 2000; in which case we will have truly witnessed a Depression.
    8 Mar 2009, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • maximummarketeye
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Good chance of going to 5000 on the DOW, too soon to tell for much else. I will be ready to make the call 2-3 months after we have hit 5000 and the market has rallied off of that low. maximummarketeye.blogs...
    9 Mar 2009, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • sickofthehype
    , contributor
    Comments (426) | Send Message
     
    Any article even mentioning the word 'bottom' gets ridiculed immediately on all websites. That in itself is a good bet that a rebound is in the cards..
    9 Mar 2009, 12:10 AM Reply Like
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