Valero best positioned for upcoming turnaround activity, Morgan Stanley says


Valero Energy (VLO +2.3%) has dropped 3% during the past three months and has underperformed its closest peers Marathon Petroleum (MPC +1.6%) and Phillips 66 (PSX +2.1%), but Morgan Stanley’s Evan Calio and Manav Gupta think it’s time for a turnaround.

While MPC, PSX and Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.2%) have major planned turnaround scheduled for Q4, VLO will be operating at a meaningfully higher utilization rate and is best positioned to capture any widening Gulf Coast differentials resulting from high turnaround activity, the analysts say.

In addition to VLO's Q4 earnings revision upside, the firm estimate VLO has $800M in MLP-able EBITDA, including organic growth projects, which can be dropped into Valero Energy Partners (VLP +0.7%) in the foreseeable future.

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