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Valero best positioned for upcoming turnaround activity, Morgan Stanley says

  • Valero Energy (VLO +2.3%) has dropped 3% during the past three months and has underperformed its closest peers Marathon Petroleum (MPC +1.6%) and Phillips 66 (PSX +2.1%), but Morgan Stanley’s Evan Calio and Manav Gupta think it’s time for a turnaround.
  • While MPC, PSX and Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.2%) have major planned turnaround scheduled for Q4, VLO will be operating at a meaningfully higher utilization rate and is best positioned to capture any widening Gulf Coast differentials resulting from high turnaround activity, the analysts say.
  • In addition to VLO's Q4 earnings revision upside, the firm estimate VLO has $800M in MLP-able EBITDA, including organic growth projects, which can be dropped into Valero Energy Partners (VLP +0.7%) in the foreseeable future.
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    vLO
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