Seeking Alpha

Apple tops $100 following bullish Morgan Stanley note

  • "We believe iWatch is an underappreciated market opportunity with the potential for up to 60M shipments in the first year," writes Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, bullish as ever on Apple (AAPL +1.2%).
  • Not surprisingly (given the watch industry's traditional margins), she thinks the iWatch will carry a 40%+ gross margin, thus boosting Apple's total GM.
  • Huberty also praises Apple's hiring of "over a dozen leaders in key areas of competency, including fashion, medical research, digital content & marketing, and wearables," and believes Tim Cook "now has the bench in place to execute on new product categories."
  • Shares have topped $100 for the first time since the split, and are close to a split-adjusted Sep. 2012 high of $100.72.
Comments (118)
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    60 million is simply not going to happen unless the thing is utterly beautiful, which it being somewhat rectangular precludes.
    19 Aug, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    It's likely to not look like a 'watch'.
    19 Aug, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • IGUART
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    They said the same thing about the iMac, the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad.... maybe some of you pundits should sit back and enjoy iWatching real innovators work for a change instead of yelling from the couch. SMH!!
    19 Aug, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    IGUART, the Mac, iPad and iPhone did not sell 60 million units in their first year. Not sure about the iPod but likely it didn't, either, so what is your point?
    19 Aug, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • aardvark3
    , contributor
    Comments (394) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, none of those had the interconnectivity potential that an iWatch has now. Apple is busy building something that is revolutionary. It's not relevant to look backward when making predictions about Apple.
    19 Aug, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • IGUART
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, my point is their making money hand over fist and are one of if not THE largest most profitable companies in the world. My guess is they know a little something about what they're doing. OK, so what if they only sell.... say, 45 MILLION units in their first year... in your eyes is that a miss?? BTW, they said "POTENTIAL of selling 60 millions units the first year". Isn't that like saying "in the Stock Market there's a POTENTIAL of becoming wealthy"? Guess what, Apple is just that... WEALTHY!! Again, just sit back and watch the fireworks in the next few months... maybe even cook up a little crow for a Thanksgiving feast.
    19 Aug, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    It's not going to sell 45 million, either. That's what makes 60 million so impossible ...

     

    We'll see how many it sells, but a square thing in the wrist is still not mass-market. Never was, actually.
    19 Aug, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • IGUART
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, and that's YOUR opinion... and from what I've heard from you on Apple it's not something I've banked on. And until it comes out all we're doing here is speculating on something we've only seen and heard RUMORS about. But again... my money is on Apple hitting it out of the park, again! Oh, I'm sure you and the rest of the bears will find something to scoff at.... never fails. But for me I can agree to disagree and just sit back and watch my money double over and over. I've been long Apple products since the Mac Plus (bought used in '89) and AAPL shares when it split @ $44.00 in 1999/2000 (?) I'll happily let you opine about Apple's poor judgement all day but in the end my lifestyle bank rolled by Apple tells me you don't have a clue. Good luck.
    19 Aug, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations, but you were defending your position based on false facts (namely that those other products had sold more than 60 million in their first year).

     

    I am just pointing out that it's very unlikely to sell those 60 million units in the first year.
    19 Aug, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • IGUART
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    My apologies Paulo, you are correct.... my comment was based on a more general basis. Apple has been making fools of naysayers for years with products people just can't wrap their heads around. Silly me.
    19 Aug, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Hank890
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, this is not about watches or the traditional watch market,....it just happens that an instrument is worn on the wrist-coincidence.
    19 Aug, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    Hank, that makes it less, not more, likely to sell.

     

    Anyway, I actually have an interesting idea to make a watch smarter and more useful than they are today, that's not yet being contemplated in these new products.
    19 Aug, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Hank890
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, why are you being intentionally thick? You undoubtedly see his valid point perfectly well. AAPL is introducing a new type of product,...not a watch.

     

    As for numbers, since 2007, when the iPhone first gained traction, the volume of AAPL device sales has ballooned rather remarkably, each year.

     

    60 mm in a year is not impossible; but I'd be pleased to see half that many in the initial year. Remember too, the revenue is nt entirely dependent on the device sale---but ill include subscription services associated with the device.
    19 Aug, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Hank890
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    and if they sell 45 mm,..how will you apologize to us for your consistent misdirection and braggadocio?
    19 Aug, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    Hank, if you said 30 million would sell in the first year, you'd be saying about the same thing as I - that it ain't gonna sell 60 million.
    19 Aug, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • justice98
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    But let's not act like they're batting 1.000. Even the mighty Apple has had come failures, or at minimum, not huge hits. The last thing people need to do is be cocky.
    19 Aug, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • drax7
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    Paulo your comments are never helpful.
    19 Aug, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • duhaus
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    @Paulo
    " . . which it being somewhat rectangular precludes." Rectangular ? Really ? " . . but a square thing in the wrist is still not mass-market." Square now ? Since noone outside of Apple actually knows anything concrete about this product I can only assume your crystal ball is getting foggy. Besides, your point is weak support for your assertion, complete speculation and personal opinion.
    19 Aug, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    The speculation regarding the shape is not mine. But we'll know soon enough. I don't believe ANY of these rectangular devices in the wrist will find a mass market for itself no matter how good, they're too geeky.
    19 Aug, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • JasonMiles
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    Having an idea and executing it are 2 different things. I personally think it's always easy for people to comment and criticize until it's time to put ones cards on the table to prove the point. If you have this great idea lets see you pull it together. apple has been building an incredible team over the last 3 years to prepare for the future. I don't and won't say anything until I see exactly what they have going on. I will agree that 60 Mil is alot of units but nobody knows what the product is or how much it will cost
    19 Aug, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • NWCats404
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    @Paulo: 60 million does sound ambitious, perhaps overly so, but Apple's distribution channels are far, far larger than they were when any of those other items debuted. iPod didn't initially work with Windows, iPhone was only on ATT, Mac was prohibitively expensive, iPad wasn't available on CHL or NTT DoCoMo, etc. It is quite possible that we'll see iWatch surpass iPad as Apple's fastest roll-out to date, surpassing iPad. Until we see what it is and does though, and how much it costs, it's impossible to make any valid concrete predictions.
    19 Aug, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Hardog
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    hank
    AAPL going higher no I want to buy more.
    19 Aug, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Hardog
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    just

     

    agree
    19 Aug, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Hardog
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    P

     

    like the back and forth here.
    19 Aug, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • mrphil49
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    It isn't a watch. Why can't that be understood? It is a medical device that they also hired some really smart design people to make it look like something you would want to wear. If it non-invasively reads your blood sugar levels and automatically records that on your phone or tablet, then don't you think everyone who is a Diabetic will want one. Also, how many who don't know that they have diabetes will find out by wearing one? World wide that alone is a lot of people. If Apple gets FDA approval as they have applied for, then it is very reasonable that insurance companies will subsidize the device just as the cell phone services have for phones. (Just one example)
    I wish Apple would just buy the rights to name it a "Tricorder".
    19 Aug, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • bobhartin
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    Square, round, rectangular, oval, triangular.

     

    Did I not see that there will be variations of device size and band types available across a spectrum of budgets? Did you consider the possibility of some shape options, too?

     

    The only thing I'm sure of is that this product will be beautiful, functional, innovative, and something that people will lust after immediately, as they've done in the past for new Apple items.
    19 Aug, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • watermark302
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, it's more than a "watch". Just like iPhone is more than just a phone. These are concepts you and Blair refuse to consider.
    19 Aug, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    If it appeals to diabetics, it will automatically not appeal to the wider population. People don't want to carry a symbol saying "hey, I'm a diabetic!".
    19 Aug, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    watermark, we'll see when it starts being sold, and also when they unveil it.
    19 Aug, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • FATUGLY
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    @paulo......Black Berry has designed a square smart phone.
    19 Aug, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, Are you going to short AAPL?
    19 Aug, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Dingwell88
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Like Medic Alert Paulo? They only really have one benefit, yet 1 million Canadians use them (pop 32 mil). Now think of this. If the iWatch or whatever they call it has the ability to monitor insulin levels then I am sure that a large percentage of the 342 million people worldwide with diabetes will want one. That is just diabetes. Now start considering other conditions or diseases. Saying that it "will automatically not appeal to the wider population" is erroneous and alarmist. Once again you prove to the masses why your advice is best taken with a massive grain of salt. (I should pick myself up an iWatch to monitor my blood pressure I suppose.)
    19 Aug, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    How many people worldwide have diabetes?

     

    366 million and counting....http://huff.to/1tk9G6p

     

    And that was three years ago.
    19 Aug, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Renmycat!
    , contributor
    Comments (637) | Send Message
     
    i like how many fanboys there are! that just means apple is nearing another top... a double top! no one is left to buy because it seems everyone and their grandma is long at the moment. we all know where this will end at some point!

     

    im not short, nor considering a short, at least until the iphone 6 announcement on sept 9 (i think) and maybe some light on the iwatch thing will be then also!

     

    hope its a buy the rumor sell the news event!
    20 Aug, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    I expect the iWatch will not only be beautiful but customized to the individual. Apple's patent design is for a cell fone battery sized mini computer watch which slides into any number of bands, from utility to ultra luxury. That may be why they hired away Tag Heuer's best guy.

     

    I expect it will be a hit and sell at least 50 million.

     

    Also, Morgan Stanley is one of the only firms whose opinions I trust. All the other seem to be biased, playing games, corrupt or stupid, at least when it comes to Apple. Barclays analyst did a big mea culpa on CNBC admitting he had been dead wrong on Apple and now gives it a strong buy. SO he was saved IMHO, but Morgan Stanley is always right. Watch David Darch from MS every Friday on CNBC at the end of the day. If you follow his advice you will make money, And MS is big into Apple now. So is Fidelity after poo-pooing it 18 months ago. The worm has turned, and I believe we will see 150 or close within a year. Plus a fatter dividend.
    20 Aug, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, Apple is no longer in its first year. it is now taking over the world. It is at its peak. They could sell 250 million iPhones every quarter if they could make enough and sell them for $400. Everywhere in the world everyone wants an iPhone or Mac or iPad. They want Apple. So the iWatch will be a huge seller. 50 million in one year is not too much. it is more or less accurate.
    20 Aug, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Paulo I would not p[it yourself against Morgan Stanley. They may be a little optimistic, but 40 million would probably be in the bag. And it will be a brilliant beautiful product which could save your life. So do not underestimate Tim COok's likely first big product launch. Remember Jonny Ives is still there, the guy who designed the iPhone and iPad. Steve Jobs and a partner and is is now Tim Cook's partner, adding dozens more for this product, all the smartest best in the world.

     

    Plus they will run seamlessly on IOS with your other Apple products.

     

    No other brand has this kind of excellence.
    20 Aug, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Paoulo, you are ill informed about the iWatch credible rumors. Read Appleinsider and educate yourself before you spout off bearish comments for no rational reason. If you are short AAPl you are in big trouble so cover tomorrow. But do not BS APple experts about how measly their products might be. Please. You know nothing.
    20 Aug, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (559) | Send Message
     
    not really concerned about year 1 numbers....but it will be utterly beautiful. Of course it will.
    It won't look like a samsung dog's dinner smartwatch or zoom, it will be utterly beautiful, and will be the first iteration in a major part of the second industrial revolution
    20 Aug, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    I am not short. If I were to short it would be on Sept 8,9.

     

    The iWatch won't track insulin. When it does, other devices will do as well.
    20 Aug, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • aardvark3
    , contributor
    Comments (394) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, you assume you understand a revolutionary design that has yet to be shown. I am delighted that Mr. Ives is in charge of inventive design, not you. To think a watch has to be conventionally attached to a wrist is like thinking that phones must be attached to a wall.
    20 Aug, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    Well, we haven't seen it yet, and for now the rumors in the Apple sites point to something rectangular. Rectangular won't do.
    20 Aug, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • mrphil49
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    And how would anyone else know?
    Will it have a sign on it saying I am a diabetic?
    Is being a diabetic contagious?

     

    And no, I don't want to wear a device that may tell me that I am having a heart attack before I can feel it!

     

    Oh, I get it, it may be like being Gay is contagious.
    I had more respect for you than to expect such a comment?
    20 Aug, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    You don't seem to know how society works...
    20 Aug, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Why not short right now?
    20 Aug, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    There's no catalyst.
    20 Aug, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1472) | Send Message
     
    Huberty would be Numero Uno in my book, if I were ranking analysts to listen to on Apple! They are all guessing, so it is sort of like baseball batting averages, but she has been very good for the last few years. Her note today is a must read for Apple longs and shorts imho. She makes some great points.
    19 Aug, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Napoleon25
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    I have a Rolex is still beautiful but doesnt keep time very well. Will buy an apple if it isn't to big. Cost is not much of a factor
    19 Aug, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • ArnieW
    , contributor
    Comments (1441) | Send Message
     
    I knew this would happen, since starting to accumulate Apple in late 2012.
    19 Aug, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8857) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations to the longs here, though I agree with Paulo -- 60 million seems unrealistic.
    19 Aug, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4467) | Send Message
     
    It all depends on the price...how can analysts make volume predictions with a straight face when NOBODY outside of Apple has seen the design, feature set or knows the price range?

     

    Let's wait two more months until the announcement likely takes place, talking about 60M units before that date is hogwash.

     

    PS: With over half of NOPAT currently coming from the iPhone family, this launch in September looks more important to me anyway in the short-term for AAPL earnings.
    19 Aug, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    It's not going to sell 45-60 million even if it comes at the moto 360's $249 ...
    19 Aug, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1472) | Send Message
     
    What if one of the models is a fitness type band that measures distance, speed, heartrate, plays music, and it keeps you connected when you get close to your phone again...and all for $179? I agree with waiting to see what they bring out. Maybe it is an $800 sapphire watch, and maybe it is more like the band. Maybe it is all of the above. Huberty is usually pretty good. When she talks, I will at least listen. Not that I would invest on that metric alone. However, assuming an installed base of 300-400 million phones, it wouldn't take but 20%.
    19 Aug, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • IGUART
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    I agree Tales... and again the comment in question here is "POTENTIAL of 60 Million units sold." I had the potential of being 6'2" but ended up 6'0", I'll take close for 1000 Alex! I wish I made a living predicting vapor.... LOL. I don't know about you folks here but if MY company sold anywhere near 60 million of anything I'd be a happy camper! Even if it was only HALF or 25% of that. We're talking MILLIONS of high profit gizmos..... some of you people kill me. LOL. When was the last time Apple tanked on a release? The Cube is the closest thing that comes to mind for me.... and they still sold a ton of those!
    19 Aug, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Hank890
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Depending on how many markets it is sold in, it does have an outside chance to move 45 mm units in one year.

     

    But frankly, I'd be quite pleased with 20-30 mm in one year at a price in the $300 range. The associated subscription revenue will add substantially.
    19 Aug, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4467) | Send Message
     
    Also, the iWatch could be announced in 2014 but its actual launch could be postponed to 2015...

     

    http://bit.ly/1tk6jMR

     

    The quoted analyst had quite a good track record on AAPL in the past.
    19 Aug, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    NO way they are delaying the Iwatch until next yer. They have had the best team in the world working on it all year and Nike exited the market knowing what was coming. Nike knows more than your analyst. Tim COok is on the board of Nike and he hired away their top Fuelband designer. You think they did that to delay a year?
    20 Aug, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4467) | Send Message
     
    Never say never, this is a complex product and ecosystem. Apple better wants to get it right than to be first. (E.g. look at the dismal sales numbers and reviews of the first Samsung Gear)

     

    I follow Apple and analysts quite closely and it could be that they announce the wearable this year in October as rumored (no cannibalization in sales doing an early announcement since it's a new category *) but may need to delay the sales launch until early 2015.

     

    Kuo has a good track record and short-term the iPhone6 is more important for revenues anyway.

     

    ------
    * "While it may seem like a 2015 launch date contradicts rumors that have pointed towards an October debut for the device, it is entirely possible that Apple will introduce the iWatch months before it is available to ship to customers. Historically, Apple has introduced some products in new categories ahead of their ship date.
    The Mac Pro, for example, was introduced at WWDC in June before sales began in December. Steve Jobs also unveiled the original iPhone six months before it launched, and the iPad was shown at an Apple event more than two months ahead of its sale date."
    20 Aug, 03:39 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1472) | Send Message
     
    But, we also had strong rumors that the iPhone was delayed this year, too. On the watch, some pretty reliable media outlets have corroborated Huberty's numbers. The Nikkei quoted supply chain partners that Apple's production rate would be (annualized) 36-60MM per year on the watch--that was a couple of months ago. I don't think Apple would be hiring expensive CEOs/execs from other companies if they didn't see a huge market here. Kuo is very good, but he has been prone to timing mistakes (although he could certainly be right this time).
    20 Aug, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4641) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1oOdSMm
    .60 million very probable in a years time, multiple wrist devices...
    19 Aug, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    One million for sure, maybe 10 million or 20 million in a huge success. Not 45 or 60 million, though.
    19 Aug, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mtwarren
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    I'll buy an iWatch for each arm and use whichever one is closest. If she means 60 million people then maybe she should double it!!
    19 Aug, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Langstraat
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I bought into Apple in 1999 after I saw what a game changer the iMac would be. Every product since then has changed our world in-spite of what the cynics have negatively predicted.
    19 Aug, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • IGUART
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    I as well Langstraat! When it split 2 for 1. Now I'm a very Happy Camper.
    19 Aug, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rickly
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    I will stick with the New Nokia since 7/12 :) A lot better future than Apple watch and learn.Waiting for the Stealth Product
    19 Aug, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • IGUART
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Riiiight....
    19 Aug, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Walker
    , contributor
    Comments (295) | Send Message
     
    Holding my shares for $1000/7 = $142.86

     

    And am going to be a rich(er) man for it.
    19 Aug, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fartface64
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Got AAPL at $398 and am very happy.
    MB, how is it going for you?
    19 Aug, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Bradmol
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    There are hundreds of millions of iphone users. They bought the iphone even though there are cheaper alternatives. These are the loyal apple customers we hear about. The ones who continually buy apple products and can't wait for the launch of their next product. iPad sold more in first year than iphone. It is possible that an iwatch (if it proves to be great functionality) can outsell the iphone and iPad in its first year. Remember that apple has gained more and more customers since they came out with the phone. These are the new loyal apple customers and I can see them and the old fan boys grabbing up an iwatch. 60 million is a lot, but the potential is there. Even if they fall short and only do 40 million, that is still a huge amount of new revenue. Combine that with the launch of a new phone and size, loaded with new fitness and medical features, I see a hell of a lot potential for the stock.
    19 Aug, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Bradmol
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    There are hundreds of millions of iphone users. They bought the iphone even though there are cheaper alternatives. These are the loyal apple customers we hear about. The ones who continually buy apple products and can't wait for the launch of their next product. iPad sold more in first year than iphone. It is possible that an iwatch (if it proves to be great functionality) can outsell the iphone and iPad in its first year. Remember that apple has gained more and more customers since they came out with the phone. These are the new loyal apple customers and I can see them and the old fan boys grabbing up an iwatch. 60 million is a lot, but the potential is there. Even if they fall short and only do 40 million, that is still a huge amount of new revenue. Combine that with the launch of a new phone and size, loaded with new fitness and medical features, I see a hell of a lot potential for the stock.
    19 Aug, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • gdinero
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    The issue for me is not whether they sell 6MM or 60mm watches. My issue is that the "market" will predict how many they sell with no input from the Company. And then punish the stock when it falls short of their own, made up predictions. Who knows?? Just focus on their incredible financial performance and cash flow and stop trying to predict the whims of the consumer...
    19 Aug, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • IGUART
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    gdinero, unfortunately you're preaching to the choir here my friend. The pundits believe they have all the answers.... of course most are wrong but that doesn't stop them from making comments and assumptions based on personal agenda vs. seeing the proof of past accomplishments.
    19 Aug, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • mphill47
    , contributor
    Comments (508) | Send Message
     
    $110 or BUST !!!
    19 Aug, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Hank890
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    60 mm in the first year, ... I doubt it. Even with worldwide distribution.

     

    45 mm 1st year - outside possibility, with broadest distribution

     

    30 mm 1st year - strongly successful, developed markets only

     

    20 mm -- decent success, ...narrower distribution (US, CA, Europe)

     

    10 mm -- starting to get traction (let's see how year 2 goes)

     

    For me the big questions is this, on average, how much recurring subscription revenue per iWatch ? This is the metric that can move the needle, because of the scalability of the low COGS associated with the service.
    19 Aug, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • xxavatarxx
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    That analyst must have neglected to look at how the Samsung watch did.

     

    60 Million is ridiculous.

     

    1/3rd of wearable tech gets abandoned within 6 months of use.
    It's just not sustainable right now.
    19 Aug, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Deja Vu
    , contributor
    Comments (1202) | Send Message
     
    Opened a small position in January 2016 put spreads with a 10X payoff. Let us see if the news of the iPhone 6 will be sold.
    19 Aug, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    Shoudln't that be closer to Sept 9? The news will probably be sold, but what between now and then?
    19 Aug, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Deja Vu
    , contributor
    Comments (1202) | Send Message
     
    Good point, I plan to scale into the position, I believe the market cap based all time high is around $110 (because of all the buy backs). Just in case AAPL starts a retreat now, I'll have at least a small position...
    19 Aug, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    If traders sell AAPL on Sept 9, then be ready to buy for a discount, because historically it only lasts a few days then back up to even higher levels. Check the charts. Traditionally the peak times for AAPl stock are in early december then in late January. Not September.

     

    But of course this year is different, the old trade might not work, as many more announcements than usual and Tim Cook is running on all cylinders. Very difficult to replace an Icon. But give him credit, he has done so very succcessfully after a fitful first 9 months,m during which time he learned lessons then corrected prior errors, the main one which was to ignore the stock price and not take care of his shareholders. He then re-negotiated his contract to be based on the stock price and hired a new CFGO whose specialty is rewarding stockholders. He also put a woman on the board who is a founder of Blackrock, whose specialty it is to grow a global powerhouse. And inked a great deal with IBM the market has yet to acknowledge.
    20 Aug, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Warren Buffet007
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I forgot my Magic Glass Ball at office!.
    Tomorrow when I back in office ,I will predict the future.
    19 Aug, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4641) | Send Message
     
    Iwatch i bracelet whatever could easily match ipod sales of yesteryears, 15 million a quarter reasonable if priced right...
    19 Aug, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • RobertLeh
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    I think the iWatch will create the same shock and surprise just as iPhone did back in 2007. Having analysed Apple's wearables-related patents and the design philosophy behind their hit products, my take is the iWatch will offer revolutionary use cases in a revolutionary form factor. A groundbraking human body - app interaction thanks to a large number of biometric sensors and their software integration is likely to be one of the flagship use cases. A flexible wrap-around display would bring the crucial screen real estate needed for modern apps while at the same time offering a unique design with an essential wow factor and potential for marketing buzz.

     

    All-in-all, do not underestimate Apple and their ability to deliver revolutionary new product categories with compelling use cases, unique design and huge mass-market appeal.
    19 Aug, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • donmcint
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Belief, smartwatch comparison to watches, 40% imaginary margins, etc...Apple seems to be still a very emotional investment!

     

    I think the stock price has more possibilities of breaking out over $100 due to the love for the company and its products than for reason, analysis, and math!

     

    The stock market is a mysterious place.
    19 Aug, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • theantiantihero
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    Negative bets on AAPL over the past year and a half have given new meaning to the phrase "losing their shorts". LOL.
    19 Aug, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    There have been almost no negative bets, even the puts trade 1/4 of the calls ... what there are, are massive long bets both in options and stock.
    19 Aug, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • theantiantihero
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    You wouldn't know it by the amount of bearish articles that have appeared over that time-span on SA.
    19 Aug, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    Short interest isn't even 2% of common.
    19 Aug, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1472) | Send Message
     
    Let's not forget that Apple is still cheap, and that Huberty's better point was that it is significantly under-owned relative to its index weight. If it was simply priced the same as the Nasdaq 100, it would be ~$35 higher! At any rate, $110+ is actually the adjusted all time high when buybacks are accounted for. Several differences from 2012: the valuation of the surrounding market is higher, making Apple relatively cheaper; Apple is growing, and they could grow significantly. (Assuming the WSJ and Digitimes and others are correct on 14 iPhone production.) The buyback isn't factored into estimates very well. As long as valuations stay low, the buyback will continue to have a large effect. They are likely bringing two large screens, along with lowering the price on the 5S and 5C. They have added NTT DCM and China Mobile since the 5 rolled out. And the cash isn't going down...
    19 Aug, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Cygnusx3
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    The 60 million figure is ridiculous. Maybe they misplaced the decimal place and meant 6 million. And I am not a naysayer, Apple is by far my greatest holding - it is just common sense.
    19 Aug, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1472) | Send Message
     
    Cyg, Huberty might have gone off her rocker, but she has been one of the best recently! Her iPhone sales prediction model relies heavily on the supply chain, and I suspect she is probably using this same group to come up with her wearable estimates. Think about it; Apple can't snap their fingers and produce the guts of the electronics we buy--they have to work on them months in advance. She is likely seeing heavy ordering to produce those numbers! Also, her best point was that big institutions own about half (as a %) of what they owned two years ago, and they own significantly less than Apple's index weight, unlike two years ago when they owned more. IOW, if they simply owned like an S&P 500 index fund they would have to buy a lot of AAPL. GLTA.
    19 Aug, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • jaj@infocrest.com
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    AAPL tops $100!!! Has anyone seen Michael Blair ? Early hibernation up north?
    19 Aug, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • MI_underpants
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    @xxavatarxx and others - I caution against pre-judging the Apple wearable tech based on the previous offerings from other companies -

     

    "That analyst must have neglected to look at how the Samsung watch did."

     

    "1/3rd of wearable tech gets abandoned within 6 months of use. It's just not sustainable right now."

     

    I think it is unlikely that, after all this time and investment, and after all the "best and brightest" minds they have hired in to work on wearable tech, that they'll come out with anything that is remotely similar to what has come before. Granted, the general public could still respond with a collective "meh," there is no guarantee for how people will react to something they have never seen before. What I can guarantee is that when Apple does release their wearable tech offering, it will be radically different in look and function than anything that has come before it.
    19 Aug, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • xxavatarxx
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    ye I guess we'll see MI_underpants.

     

    But even some of the things mentioned like bio-metrics.
    I honestly only know one or two people that would want that daily.
    These people run 10k marathons and work out a lot.

     

    Most people don't give "2 cents" about monitoring their daily bio-metrics.
    And aren't going to wear a wrist watch to do it.

     

    I think this is why you see a lot of the wearables fail, or are unable to gain momentum.
    There isn't anything compelling yet that will make people want to use them permanently aside from special use cases (medical, working out, etc).
    19 Aug, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • mrphil49
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Oh, and the medical industry isn't doing a lot of business!
    How old are you?? Taking care of your body is kind of important and quite a lot of us have to pay attention. Even more would live longer or healthier if we could diagnose problems sooner. Yes, physical training/exercise is a decent market but it pales compared to knowing what your blood pressure is or blood/oxygen content.
    19 Aug, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • xxavatarxx
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    No, I don't know 60 million people with medical issue's that would want a wearable device 24/7. ; )
    20 Aug, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • xxavatarxx
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    mrphil49, I'm an apple fan.
    Since I see a lot of apple rhetoric in the comments here.
    I'm not hating on Apple.

     

    Just dont see how they could sell 60 Million watches in a year.
    20 Aug, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • mrphil49
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Neither do I in the first year. Such complex software needs time to learn just like maps. Even Google Maps had to teach itself. Modern programming works that way.
    So does Apple. The humans who designed it will have to adjust what it does based upon sales and the feedback from the software (no, not your personal data).
    Yet, considering who they brought into this project, it deserves more respect than I am seeing here.
    And, I don't care who makes the "real Tricorder", ask any MD if they wouldn't want one.

     

    If they call it a watch, then I agree that they have seriously damaged the perception of what it is.
    60 million in the third year is more likely, if it works and that is a big if.
    20 Aug, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • pocohonta
    , contributor
    Comments (555) | Send Message
     
    This is how they will sell $60M+ just to start: different models with specific usage. A model for sports enthusiasts, a model for business, and a model for medical monitoring, and more to come as demands warrant. People will buy not one, but several.
    19 Aug, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • mrphil49
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Now you're thinking. Better yet, they will be able to buy just the biometric sensors that they want and have the option to upgrade later? I think the sensors will be in the straps. Sensor sales will be like apps only they are hardware.
    19 Aug, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • a alto
    , contributor
    Comments (140) | Send Message
     
    If this can be used by diabetics , I don't they will give a damn what it looks like . All I know is if it can be used by diabetics this is a massive disruptive game changing device . Stock will skyrocket on news of that . The test strip monopoly should be real nervous .
    19 Aug, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    If it's to be used by diabetics it won't sell much. Thankfully, it isn't.
    19 Aug, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • pocohonta
    , contributor
    Comments (555) | Send Message
     
    on the contrary, if it can measure blood sugar on a continuous basis without the painful poking of fingers, it will sell like hot cake. If it does that plus other vital signs (heart rate, body temp, blood pressure), then it will sell like hot cake with whipped cream. If it also measures caffeine level, it will sell like hot cake with whipped cream and cheery on top. I'm getting hungry just thinking about it.

     

    All of above features are either rumored, or already on other products, or as described in patent filings, so it is no fantasy.
    19 Aug, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4467) | Send Message
     
    One short-term issue could be FDA (and similar bodies internationally) testing and approval times. It may take months until Apple's device gets all regulatory approvals on a global scale (especially because Apple is so secretive before a product launch).

     

    Maybe Apple is playing it safe and the wearable is "just" acting as a display and UI for other specialized devices doing the actual measurements.

     

    I agree that the health and fitness aspect could be huge long-term (aging population in Western countries with high income per capita).
    19 Aug, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • nooseah
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    If it had been anybody other than Katy Huberty that wrote this piece, I'd have dismissed it as complete nonsense.
    19 Aug, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • harm ax
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    It simply amazes me seeing all of the "experts" here voicing nothing but opinion. No one knows how many products will be sold on day one, or through day 365, so why take any speculation as anything but that, uttered speculation. These "experts" have gotten AAPL right all along ? SA has lost any cred it may have had long ago as it continues to allow these dribblings to continue.
    19 Aug, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • mrphil49
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Still calling it a watch?
    By that reasoning, your cell phone is a pocket watch or a clock.
    By my reasoning, the most used part of your cell phone is when you look at it to see what time it is. Does that make it a watch/clock?

     

    We are talking about possibly breaking serious new ground on a personal medical health monitoring device. Certainly, Apple has put together the "Dream Team" of medical device designers, medical help from the best of hospitals, a great watch designer, two of the best fashion people on the planet and a bunch of patents.
    If they do break "new ground" then the sky is the limit. So what if 60 million in the first year is way too high. Most Apple devices that do break new ground take a year to finish the design faze. The first one is a Public Beta. But still, if it does have sensors that no one else has that can make a difference to anyone's health, then it will sell. If it gets FDA approval and insurance subsidies then it could cost as much as the phones do. How much was your last hearing aid??? $3,000 per ear...I think they sell a bunch of those (and yes there is a bottom tier and a premium tier).
    19 Aug, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • biondo898
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Paulo Santos - We know how you feel. Its like talking to a brick wall. Short AAPL please and lose money. You are betting against the world's most valuable company, a company that has had the largest buyback of stock, increasing dividends, and not to mention, an array of new innovative products, the Iphone 6, Iwatch, along with Ipayments coming soon. Good luck and happy trading!
    20 Aug, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • eenk
    , contributor
    Comments (188) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, two questions:

     

    1.) I want to hear what your idea is to make a watch type product more productive! Are you willing to reveal?

     

    2.) Either way, how would you feel about the iwatch if they happen to have come up with the same exact idea? 45 million possible in that scenario?
    20 Aug, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    I doubt they have the idea - it's borne out of practical living and it's clearly useful for the regular joe. It's probably easy to implement, and no watch presently has it.

     

    I don't wear a watch. I would, if it had this thing.
    20 Aug, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • Goldtean
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    I love Apple both as a company and stock - currently my biggest holding and my house is filled with Apple products, but a watch from them will not sell 60mln units in its first year. I don't even want one - I really hope they surprise the market and have the watch as a verb and release sunglasses.
    20 Aug, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • MattZN2
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    I think the iwatch speculation is crud too. But I don't care because iphone-6 sales are likely to blow our socks off.

     

    -Matt
    20 Aug, 02:56 AM Reply Like
  • Piptief
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Well I have never listened to analysts of any variety on apple since it topped the pre-split price of 700. Their analysis and market reaction tells me they know nothing, including a lot of so called SA writers. Everyone pretends they know how to run apple better than Tim Cook and company. So for me, I bought at pre split 570 on the way down and then reloaded at 400 and again at 525 and most recently at post split 92.

     

    My philosophy is simple. I am not a trader. I am buying and holding for retirement. With an amazing set of executives, a huge cash moat....well...the largest cash moat, a premium brand and God knows what in the product pipeline, i should be able to ride out many a market boom and bust as analysts overhype the stock in some instances and underwhelm in others. Right now everyone is simply guessing...if they can't predict one quarter of earnings correctly, why should I listen to anything they have to say about apple's longer term price target? Long and loving it all the way to the bank, buying on pullbacks. Very bankable retirement strategy when balanced with a few other similar type investments.

     

    By the way, where is Michael Blair? Lol! Man I can't get enough of these analysts who are certain how many of what product apple is going to sell or not sell. Lots of stupidity on the bullish and bearish sale predictions...Comedy Central. Bet they not risking any capital on their views!
    20 Aug, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • ArnieW
    , contributor
    Comments (1441) | Send Message
     
    What is the AAPL price that will represent a $T market cap. That's what I am looking forward to? Anybody?
    20 Aug, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • nooseah
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    Here's a simple credibility test for wannabe traders/analysts:

     

    Do you cheer stock buy-backs when they're announced? In other words, do stock buybacks represent a positive development for a company or a negative development?

     

    The answer here is critical given that stock buybacks are one of the most repeated reasons under the 'positive development' banner to buy a stock.

     

    My inclination, having read a plethora of comments over past months is that there is an extraordinary amount of ignorance in this regard.
    20 Aug, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Johnwoods41
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    Anyone know how many Swatch watches are sold each year ? And they are nowhere near the price point of an iwatch ! I don't know the exact number but a few google searches returned 20-25 million a year, so 60 million for an iwatch 1st gen for a "new product" seems a bit rich, and I don't see many of the apple iphone owners with Cartier and Rolex owners switching fast:)
    20 Aug, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    Obviously, it won't sell 60 million - but saying it will is very easy.
    20 Aug, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • a alto
    , contributor
    Comments (140) | Send Message
     
    Wow , Santos can predict the future , amazing .
    20 Aug, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18241) | Send Message
     
    I don't really need to - first, those saying it will sell 60 million in the first year are predicting the future, second, no new AAPL product sold 60 million in its first year.
    20 Aug, 07:52 PM Reply Like
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