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Gold slides to two-month low; summer gain erased

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Comments (18)
  • Liam Garrity-Rokous
    , contributor
    Comments (192) | Send Message
     
    So much of this was due to the extremely strong dollar that we've seen recently. The negative correlation between the USD and gold puts downward pressure on gold in the short-term. The good news for gold bulls is that gold has historically sold off much harder when the dollar was as strong as it is now. Long-term physical demand trends for gold still remain extremely positive, and I stand behind my position that gold bottomed in 2013 and it is headed higher in the months/years to come http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Aug 2014, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (4375) | Send Message
     
    I agree. I submitted a Seeking Alpha PRO article today reviewing the WGC gold report for Q2'14. Physical demand is officially down from Q1 and that drags H1'14 below H1'13, but last year was abnormal. H1'13 demand was higher than H2'13, leading me to believe that the "bargain basement" prices in H1 were pulling demand forward from the second half into the first. Normally H2 is stronger than H1, and I expect that again this year. Furthermore, Q3 and Q4 will be compared to the abnormally low Q3'13 and Q4'13. This stronger appearance of demand should win back some investors who bailed in 2013 for stocks.
    21 Aug 2014, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Liam Garrity-Rokous
    , contributor
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    I agree completely. People very rarely talk about a GLD/SPY ratio or something of that sort, and it's back at multi-year lows. I honestly expect that any sell-off in the market, which I believe will take place in the near future, will have a positive impact on the price of gold as investors sell stocks and buy gold. This plays into my "finite amount of money" idea, which is that people (generally speaking) have a finite amount of money and need to choose where they invest it. It isn't necessarily realistic, and obviously there are tons of external factors to consider, but it makes sense if you think about it generally.

     

    Long story short, I would much rather be long gold than stocks for the short-term, because I believe that gold has a lot of upward potential for short-term while stocks have a lot of risk at these prices.
    21 Aug 2014, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • pfscudieri
    , contributor
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    Looking for a pop tomorrow
    21 Aug 2014, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
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    Hmm, $1200 of FRNs or 1oz of Au?
    21 Aug 2014, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • wally1200
    , contributor
    Comments (344) | Send Message
     
    go with FRN
    21 Aug 2014, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • divestor
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    I sure hope gold and silver keep going down for a while. I would love to get the chance that others had buying in the early 2000's.
    21 Aug 2014, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Smith AKA Big Foot
    , contributor
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    Yup, gold will sink for a bit. Till FEDS find out just how big of a mess they have made. Also the Feds will just have to continue to print money & offer new types of bills so people will want to deal in it. Right now 20$ bill is so worthless it's too much hassle to even carry cash around anymore. All I use now is debt cards. This is horrible for the U.S. Dollar. So much cash floating around is soon to be considered the poor mans currency. Sorry, but that is what it will be known as.

     

    Gold is the renown champion of currencies. I just see so much coming up in the near future. Gold isn't going to be the only game in town; however, it will be a one of the big players. Maybe bitcoin to some extent. Stocks and backing in bonds is all I see. Work wont even be worth the effort for cash income. I just don't know how it will all work out. But, over the countless of times I think about it. I will definitely have it figured out before it all happens.
    21 Aug 2014, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • MrEng
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Liam, most of the recent weakness can be traced to a surge in the dollar. The fact remains that war has come to Eastern Europe. Mr. Putin isn't going away and he won't stop until he has gotten what he wants. His attempt at unconventional warfare has failed, therefore, I fully expect Russian troops to annex the Eastern half of Ukraine before November. This should be more than a plus for the metals complex. If I am wrong about Herr Putin, then Gold is just basing, just above the "all in" production cost and until Ms. Yellen provides us with a strong dose of wage inflation in the U.S. gold may will continue to flatline. I'm not long or short gold right now, but I am long some palladium and cocoa beans. Simply put, the charts on these are more positive. I would expect support to hold at $1,200 per oz.
    21 Aug 2014, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Smith AKA Big Foot
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    GOLD is going to drop to just under 1200 per ounce around Sep,when QE gives the big scare in Oct gold will rally. This is the game plan I am thinking of off the top of my head. How the FED responds in OCT will make up my mind on how to play out my hand.
    21 Aug 2014, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9050) | Send Message
     
    Is it a global conspiracy again to suppress the price of gold?
    22 Aug 2014, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Liam Garrity-Rokous
    , contributor
    Comments (192) | Send Message
     
    I prefer to look at cold hard facts, rather than speculate about conspiracies. That's why I talked about the USD's correlation to gold, and the fact that physical demand is still very strong.
    22 Aug 2014, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Leroyboy66
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Big Foot, you might read Avi the EW (ELLIOT WAVE) GURU, He will give you some perspectives to THINK ABOUT....
    22 Aug 2014, 03:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. Smith AKA Big Foot
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    Leroyboy Alright, thanks man. & to Macro Investor, Conspiracy theories? Come on drop that TV bill buddy. That is saying the diamond market is trying to kill off the Ruby price. Just because gold and cash is fighting on the same level as currency doesn't mean there is a conspiracy. It's just they both play on the same field so one impacts the other no matter what. US right now has a strong dollar for some ridiculous reasons.
    22 Aug 2014, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9050) | Send Message
     
    I thought the Fed was behind the heinous plan to push down gold prices so that people are hoodwinked into believing that we do not have 100% inflation. Per Day.

     

    No?
    22 Aug 2014, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • gbcox
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    It is the worlds exchange currency for now. End of story. However the brics are hoarding gold. They all produce a lot themselves except for India. You don't imagine that they may have visions of the world's commerce being conducted with gold as payment master, now would you? If one would consider that the one trillion US Dollars plus in China's treasury could be directed at purchasing excess gold on the free market in order to make the price of gold act like it was leaving the planet, I wonder what affect that would have on the dollar? ( I am not that good at math,but I believe that would buy somewhere in the neighborhood 0f 30000 tons of gold.) It seems to my little brain that the brics may be in the driver seat sooner than you think.
    26 Aug 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9050) | Send Message
     
    Then America better sell everything right now and buy gold, right? Can we start by selling the red states to Mexico?
    29 Aug 2014, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • james.
    , contributor
    Comments (893) | Send Message
     
    Peter Shiff is correct in his excellent article today on yahoo.com. The reason the U.S. Dollar will decline sharply is the manner in which the Russian Federation will implement its next Retaliatory Sanction, namely, a Surcharge on all of its Oil & Gas Exports to EU & U.S. as follows: 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, and 35% for payments made in Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Yuan, Yen , and U.S. Dollar, resprectively. The resulting drop in DXY down to challenge its 4 year lows at 73 will also cause a 30% rapid decline in the U.S. Stock market Indexes of DJIA, DJT, DJU, and COMP, while simultaneously causing a sharp rise in Gold and Silver prices along with a sharp rise in the Gold & Silver Stock equities in the UAU and HUI Indexes. That process has already started today with a $7 gain in Gold price, a $0.13 rise in Silver price, and a 1% rise in XAU and HUI. Look to it ! Aug 28, 2014 at 12:29 pm PDT
    28 Aug 2014, 03:29 PM Reply Like
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