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Global auto sales up 1.5% in July

Comments (9)
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (1543) | Send Message
     
    Yearly rate of 85.71 millions units sold world wide. Now if Tesla Motors was to get just 10% market share, that would be 8.57 million vehicles a year.

     

    I think that is possible in 10 years.

     

    What do you think?
    29 Aug, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • JDoe20
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    Probably right - sounds like a bet your house on it stock. Heck, they may overtake Ford and GM in ten years. Go for it!
    29 Aug, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (1543) | Send Message
     
    I do have all my $$ in TSLA. It isn't much, but I got in at 38 and am still holding.
    29 Aug, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • JDoe20
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    Tongue in cheek response but your 8.57M number would be past Honda, Hyundai, Ford and Nissan. If they get 1/3 these numbers the law of large numbers kick in whacking your large growth.

     

    In addition, if the liberals stay in power they will totally kill coal which gives us cheap electricity through a dismal electric power grid.

     

    Glad it has been a good investment for you but I wouldn't get too complacent on this one. All long time investors have ridden stocks up and then down again.

     

    The toughest call is when to take profit or dollar cost out. With this said, I have owned numerous stocks for 10 or 20 years and more.
    29 Aug, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • chipdoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    At 7000 cells per vehicle, we would need over 60 Billion cells for each year's production (roughly 10 cells for each person in the world). What's next about Giga, Tera? That's the factory needed.
    29 Aug, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4767) | Send Message
     
    "I think that is possible in 10 years.What do you think?"

     

    Yes, if the batteries are made by aliens using advanced alien production methods....which is unlikely unless Seti picks up a signal soon ;)

     

    So no, it's not possible since theat would require 20 Gigafactories and $100 billion in capex, by 2020 there will only be one for just 500k cars/year.

     

    Battery production will remain a bottleneck for long-range EVs for decades - including raw material price spikes.

     

    Even the biggest Wall St. bulls only have Tesla at 1% marketshare in 10 years from now.

     

    PS: Car production is estimated by most analysts at up to 100 million units by 2020-2025, not "only" 85 million.
    2 Sep, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (593) | Send Message
     
    That's a pretty good calculation, however I believe it will be much higher simply because your not figuring in the TV coverage.
    Right now Tesla does zero advertising and they are selling pretty good with very expensive cars i.e. the Model X, but if you were to figure the Model E at 35K each with just 1/3 the amount of TV public advertising the plant in California would be running 24 hours a day and three to four shifts to build those cars.
    I also believe that many would be Tesla customers have never heard of an EV like Tesla with FREE mileage at a Tesla Supercharging station, so they are in for a big learning curve first, but when they learn it, I feel sorry for the guy opening the doors at a Tesla store.
    29 Aug, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • hneumann
    , contributor
    Comments (613) | Send Message
     
    10% market share for Tesla in 10 years ? Very optimistic. More probably 10-15% for hybrids and 100% electric cars from all brands together. Difficult situation with world oilproduction at or near its peak
    29 Aug, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert.from.Ct
    , contributor
    Comments (515) | Send Message
     
    Long FIATY
    29 Aug, 06:32 PM Reply Like
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