Andrew Hall sticks with bullish oil bet

Known as the God of Crude Oil in the business, trader Andrew Hall's bet that oil prices would continue to rise has run into the shale revolution. Has the man who bagged a $98M bonus in 2008 first riding oil higher than going short ahead of the crash lost his touch?

Based on his investor letters, Hall is unfazed by recent losses and makes a sport of mocking those who think the shale boom means cheap energy over the long term. "When you believe something, facts become inconvenient obstacles," wrote Hall in April about an analyst who saw oil going to $75 per barrel over the next five years.

Hall instead sees a rise to $150 and is making his bet by buying up cheap call options for oil to be delivered as far out as 2019, reports Bloomberg.

“You can’t play the game without bumping into the wall every now and then,” says chairman of PBF Energy Tom O’Malley (who recruited Hall to a trading job 32 years ago). “Anybody who bets against Andy Hall might be making a poor bet."

"He has three gears: long, longer, and really long," says an energy consultant and economist.


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Comments (2)
  • asammar6
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
    Oil is the only commodity on earth where oversupply means higher prices. The more the market is announced to be in a state of oversupply or overbought, the higher the price of oil goes. You will NEVER see oil going back down to $75 a barrel, whether it is Brent or WTI. The least little bit of good economic news sends oil on yet another rally, regardless of oversupply. The least little indication of supply disruption, anywhere in the world, sends oil skyrocketing, regardless of supply levels. Realistically, supply simply does not matter, all that matters is keeping oil prices sky high. You will never see oversupply keeping prices down. You can bet your life on that. The days of cheap gas are DEAD.
    4 Sep 2014, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • convoluted
    , contributor
    Comments (2489) | Send Message
    Oil swims in a channel-so basic betting rules work quite well. I suggested shorting oil (stocktalk) during the most recent iraq panic. I also confessed to getting out early-but nonetheless made a wad of cash.
    I think it's just a 'tad' too early to jump back in-but that day will come with absolute certainty. It may not be too early to sell some LEAP puts-will have to contemplate.
    Oil is highly manipulated. I haven't looked at 'fundamentals' since I was a child.
    4 Sep 2014, 12:46 PM Reply Like
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