Known as the God of Crude Oil in the business, trader Andrew Hall's bet that oil prices would continue to rise has run into the shale revolution. Has the man who bagged a $98M bonus in 2008 first riding oil higher than going short ahead of the crash lost his touch?
Based on his investor letters, Hall is unfazed by recent losses and makes a sport of mocking those who think the shale boom means cheap energy over the long term. "When you believe something, facts become inconvenient obstacles," wrote Hall in April about an analyst who saw oil going to $75 per barrel over the next five years.
Hall instead sees a rise to $150 and is making his bet by buying up cheap call options for oil to be delivered as far out as 2019, reports Bloomberg.
“You can’t play the game without bumping into the wall every now and then,” says chairman of PBF Energy Tom O’Malley (who recruited Hall to a trading job 32 years ago). “Anybody who bets against Andy Hall might be making a poor bet."
"He has three gears: long, longer, and really long," says an energy consultant and economist.