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The VIX (VXX -4.7%) at multi-year lows may suggest investor complacency ... or maybe not, posits...

The VIX (VXX -4.7%) at multi-year lows may suggest investor complacency ... or maybe not, posits Conor Sen. The term structure of the VIX shows expectations for a sharp rise in volatility in coming months, as opposed to this time last year when continued smooth sailing was baked in. "(It's) why I'm still bullish," he says.
Comments (2)
  • mikeinnyc
    , contributor
    Comments (65) | Send Message
     
    I wish one could predict Low Volatility with contango but you can't. You can only make a projection with Sky High Volatility. Based on the above chart expectations can't be determined top or bottom or sideways.

     

    However, the VIX P/C ratios on 3/13/2012 have been inching up to 1.21 = 245869-203064-448933 which means that Volatility is getting sold hard which is Bullish.

     

    While over at the total exchange Puts and Calls more calls are being bought! P/C at 0.86. While its not strong it tells me that more people are becoming BULLISH.

     

    And of course, the thrashing of the redheaded Vix child..... all bullish indicators.

     

    Now, when enough people become BULLISH its usually the exact opposite that happens. While the above are weak indicators used in conjunction it's something to go with the crystal ball.

     

    You have some time enjoy it..... for now. :)
    13 Mar 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Trader Monk
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    There is no investor complacency..they are too busy being bullish..just watch CNBC..
    14 Mar 2012, 04:35 AM Reply Like
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