China is already in a hard landing, says JPMorgan analyst Adrian Mowat. "If you look at the...


China is already in a hard landing, says JPMorgan analyst Adrian Mowat. "If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing... Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact."

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Comments (4)
  • User 353732
    , contributor
    Comments (5158) | Send Message
     
    Turning points come suddenly whether it is the reversal of a multi decade trend or in inflation or in bubbles bursting.

     

    The conventional wisdom that China can grow indefinitely at high rates despite massive bad real estate debt and a Regime that despises both personal and property rights for 90% of its subjects while exploiting their labor is now so endemic that it is bound to be wrong.

     

    Demographically and in terms of engineered real estate and infrastructure bubbles China is approaching or is already at the cusp.
    15 Mar 2012, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • Garfield23
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    falling knife - Mowat is spot on, a hard landing, its gonna get ugly
    15 Mar 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    As you dig into that story, they define a "hard-landing" as less than 6% GDP growth which I guess in their case would feel like a mini-depression based upon the prior levels of growth.

     

    Maybe it's because the news on China hits SA so early in the morning but I am finding that the China slowdown story hasn't really received much attention.

     

    China currently also has an inverted yield curve which would normally forecast an actual recession if it were in a developed economy. In the US's case it is pretty close to a lock that an inverted yield curve leads to recession.

     

    Not knowing the Chinese history with this metric I am not sure how meaningful it is in their context but it certainly seems to have been ignored.
    15 Mar 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Garfield23
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    Conv. Wzdm,

     

    I agree with you post.

     

    People are not paying much attention to this inverted yield curve and you are correct , in a developed country this is a recession.

     

    On another note, people are not realizing that previous years super growth will become/and is becoming its own enemy, too much investment now show tons of factories sitting vacant.

     

    The Hang Seng and ShgHai Comp are going to correct in a major way in the next week or two as people realize everything that is going on and the people get scared as they see through the China leaders lies and excuses.

     

    It is amazing how the China leaders use excuses and tell lies and people believe it, for example:

     

    1. they say they are cooling the Real estate market on purpose, - what this really means is our real estate bubble popped and is now crashing

     

    2. they say they are cancelling the Airbus plane orders because of a small fee dispute, -- what this really means is our economy is crashing and we really dont have a need for any more planes, but we will use this a an excuse

     

    3. they say their GDP is targeted at 7.5%, -- what this really means is when our GDP comes in at 3-4% it wont be so hard to stretch to the 7.5% instead of the 8-9%

     

    4. they say their factories can't find workers and they are sitting empty - this means they new order phone isnt inging anymore and now all the factories we built are sitting empty and everyone went back to the countryside because there is no more work

     

    5. they say there are enviromental concerns with rare metals thats why we lowered the quota, -- what this really means is they need to keep rare earths high overseas, so they are cheap here in China so people will have to buy our Chinese goods and not their home countries, (when this WTO complaint gets settled and China has to open the rare earth markets, their goods now get more of a level playing field and this will hurt exports even more)

     

    6. when they say oh it was the lunar new year holiday why exports reduced, --- what this really means is holy c**p our country is falling off a cliff and we need any excuse...

     

    China is doomed. plain and simple.

     

    this is a recipe for disaster!
    16 Mar 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
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