- Alcoa (AA -0.9%) is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a $20 price target, up from $16, at Deutsche Bank, which says the company's “metamorphosis [is] on track.”
- DB admits it is now "eating crow" after misjudging the turnaround now apparent in Alcoa's upstream primary smelting business due to still rising U.S. premia plus an improved global aluminum price; "the net effect has been a resurrection of a business unit that had heretofore been a headwind for Alcoa's overall finances," the firm says.
- DB sees a continued earnings turnaround with upside driven mainly by Primary Metals EBITDA, which could recover from a 2013 cyclical low of $475M to $1.8B by 2016 despite a lower capacity footprint.