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OLED -5.4%; Canaccord expects S5 green host share loss

  • Canaccord's Jonathan Dorsheimer believes Universal Display (NASDAQ:OLED) is set to lose OLED green host material share to Samsung affiliate Cheil industries for the Galaxy S5, and also sees Samsung using Cheil as a supplier for future phones.
  • In a base case scenario, Dorsheimer sees Universal losing 33% of its 2H14 green host sales, and 50% in 2015 and beyond. He estimates such a loss would respectively affect 2H14, 2015, and 2016 sales by $8.4M, $30.4M, and $29.4M. A bear-case scenario of 100% share loss yields estimated revenue losses of $16.7M, $60.8M, and $58.8M.
  • Dorsheimer does note Universal could benefit from Apple Watch-related materials sales - Apple Watch is believed to feature an OLED display, and Universal client LG Display (LPL -0.3%) is the rumored supplier. But he thinks the device might only yield $1M-$2M in quarterly revenue for Universal.
  • Q3 results are due on Thursday. Universal plunged in July in response to news Samsung/Cheil is buying German OLED materials provider Novaled, but rebounded after analysts argued Novaled's offerings are complementary.

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