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Barron's: Today's bubble is in private market

Dec. 07, 2014 10:20 AM ETQQQ, SPY, DIA, XLK, IGM, IYW, XNTK, VGT, QQEW, QTEC, PSQ, QLD, QID, RSPT, REW, ROM, QQXT, FXL, TECL, TECS, TQQQ, SQQQ, QQQE, FTECBy: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor36 Comments
  • Patting itself on the back for ringing a bell at the top in 2000, Barron's looks at today's market and concludes, "This time is different." First up are valuations: The DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA) sells for 15x next year's expected earnings vs. 18x then, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) at 17x vs. 30x, and the Nasdaq at 22x vs. 2000's 102x.
  • Secondly, as a group newly public tech names are actually making money as opposed to 2000 when they were burning through billions of dollars per quarter.
  • The biggest change in Silicon Valley since 2000, however, is entrepreneurs no longer need to take their babies' public to cash out and/or raise massive amounts of capital. And it's in the private market - where venture-capital firms have been joined by mutual and hedge funds - that valuations have become bubbly, with example #1 being Uber's funding round last week valuing it at $41B. That's higher than all but 31 companies on the Nasdaq, and stands against a $17B valuation just a few months back.
  • There are 60 private companies with valuations above $1B today, according to tech-IPO godfather Bill Hambrecht. "Those 60 companies would have been public in the '90s."
  • ETFs: QQQ, XLK, PSQ, TQQQ, QID, VGT, SQQQ, QLD, TECL, IYW, ROM, FTEC, TECS, RYT, QQEW, QTEC, IGM, QQQE, FXL, MTK, REW, QQXT

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