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TSMC up 8% on Q4 beat, strong guidance

  • In addition to beating Q4 EPS estimates, TSMC (NYSE:TSM) has guided for Q1 revenue of NT$221B-NT$224B ($6.94B-$7.04B), above a $6.71B consensus.
  • Also: Co-CEO Mark Liu says 2015 revenue growth will likely be "several percentage points" above an estimated industry average of 12%; that would put it well above an 11.2% consensus. Growth in U.S. dollars could be slightly lower, given the U.S. dollar's strength against its Taiwanese counterpart.
  • As expected, strong orders for Apple's 20nm A8 CPU provided a big lift to Q4 sales: 20nm production made up 21% of wafer revenue, up from 9% in Q3. 28nm fell to 30% from 34%.
  • Gross margin was 49.7%, -80 bps Q/Q but +520 bps Y/Y and near the high end of a 48%-50% guidance range. GM in seasonally weak Q1 is expected to be in a 48.5%-50.5% range. Op. margin is expected to be in a 38.5%-40.5% range, after coming in at 39.6% in Q4.
  • With TSMC investing heavily in its 16nm FinFET and FinFET+ processes, as well as making 10nm investments ahead of an expected 2016 launch, the 2015 capex budget has been set at $11.5B-$12B, well above 2014 spending of $9.52B. In October, the world's biggest foundry only said 2015 capex would top $10B.
  • Chairman Morris Chang admits TSMC will lose some orders to Samsung this year, as the latter rolls out its 14nm FinFET process. But this has been widely expected.
  • Q4 results, PR

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited