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Wedge Partners' Brian Blair tells Apple (AAPL -0.4%) investors to stay on the sidelines until...

Wedge Partners' Brian Blair tells Apple (AAPL -0.4%) investors to stay on the sidelines until the company releases its FQ2 report. Blair is worried new iPad sales will miss the Street's high expectations in spite of a strong opening week, noting Apple Stores have ample supplies. Moreover, he now thinks 2012 iPad shipments will likely be at the low end of a forecast range of 56M-60M. A Chinese site recently reported Apple has slashed production of new iPads.
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Comments (18)
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1275) | Send Message
    That's a tough call, could be an isolated incident in slowing production.
    29 Mar 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • muoio
    , contributor
    Comments (2957) | Send Message
    This just may be the moment to short AAPL.


    Place your bets.....
    29 Mar 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • musiccomposer
    , contributor
    Comments (1018) | Send Message
    I am still waiting for my iPad 3
    29 Mar 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Stan Low
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
    For what its worth, I went into an Office Depot on the weekend, and they said they had the new iPads in stock, which surprised me given the previous hype over 1st weekend sales.
    29 Mar 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • rnhuch
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
    I saw iPad ad on the TV yestarday. I felt it was weird. Why did they need the ads? Maybe they are not selling enough...
    29 Mar 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • sglaney
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
    there are ads for apple products on TV all the time
    29 Mar 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • flumeride
    , contributor
    Comments (289) | Send Message
    I think the heat issue is going to hurt the ipad 3. I know I don't want to buy one until I know a little more, but is sounds like it gets too hot, even though it is within the design specs. Some people are not comfortable with electronic gadgets that get hot. The other features are not sufficient for me to want to pay more to deal with the heat. However, I do think the lowered price on the ipad 2 will drive up it's sales. I'm long aapl and I think they will recover, but I believe they messed up on this one and I wouldn't be surprised for them to miss next quarters expectations.
    29 Mar 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • richard McDonough
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
    I have had the new iPad since release. Never noticed any heat and use it constantly.
    29 Mar 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • flumeride
    , contributor
    Comments (289) | Send Message
    I haven't used one, but I've read some of the initial reviews. It's good to hear that you haven't noticed any heat issues. Maybe it only warms up when playing a game or something that gives the display a workout. Or maybe the review overstated the heat issue.
    29 Mar 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • ItsAllGreek
    , contributor
    Comments (547) | Send Message
    Every time an Apple product comes out there is a potential defect which gets blown out of proportion. Usually someone benefits from the bad news (read shorts).


    As an iPad 3 user I have not noticed any heating or wifi issues indeed the wifi range appears stronger than on the iPad 3. The benefit of Apple is you can rely on the quality of their products and know that they will replace any defective items no questions asked.
    29 Mar 2012, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • what do I know
    , contributor
    Comments (1049) | Send Message
    I remember the same thing when ipad2 was coming out. The company said that people were waiting for new ipad and the pent up demand resulted in sky busting sale the next quarter. But what would be the explanation this time if ipad (new ) sale really comes at the low end!
    29 Mar 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
    AAPL is a great company - there is no question about that. I just wonder if at some point the competition is going to catch up or even get in front of them. This is what always happens in the world. I don't trade AAPL - either long or short but would be surprised if they manage to maintain their margins + stay ahead of the competition as much as they have done so far.
    29 Mar 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tradevestor
    , contributor
    Comments (4076) | Send Message
    1. iPad2 did not have pre-orders online- new iPad did


    2. Did Target and Walmart sell iPads the last time ? More outlets = less sold per outlet but end number will be the same
    29 Mar 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • ShadowTS
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
    I think Brian Blair is totally wrong. It has no sense stay on the sideline now, one month before earnings results. The usual strategy "buy the rumors" fits perfectly in this case. I think we will see nice greens in AAPL the week before earnings. Obviously, it's possible that iPad sales were not good, and it could be a good strategy to sell the stock on the day before announcement. However, considering the jump around 7,5% on the opening the day after last results (420 - 450), it's not a good idea do not try to play earnings! A good strategy will include a cover (puts?) to reduce stock losses in case of very bad news. Moreover, the best strategy to play AAPL earning results, further to cover, if it will be another (little) monster quarter, is to sell everything the day of the jump and to buy again some days later, at lower leves, after people take profits.
    29 Mar 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • air tango
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
    Same story with those bears...first the name iPad was a joke, then the batteries, now the temperature...they are probably speculating or they don't understand anything...I can't believe the later...same story with the iPhone...those shorties still playing the wrong game...
    29 Mar 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • bailinnumberguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
    3 million were sold in 3 days from its release date AND there was inventory left over on the shelves. Sounds to me like Apple's done a better job of stocking the shelves and assuring that inventory is available to meet demand. If they can sell 3 million of these in 3 days, I WON'T be waiting until Q2 earnings to decide what to do, I'll be buying on every sell-off from the sheep who panic over any news.
    29 Mar 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Wall Street Smart
    , contributor
    Comments (474) | Send Message
    The logic that Bair is using is sheer nonsense. AAPL is just prepared better to meet the demand than they were for Ipad2. Going by their logic Iphone should have had horrendous sales last quarter because I could walk in to any store and get an Iphone the last quarter. Guess what, they sold 37 mn iphones. Availability of stock means better Supply Chain Mangement in AAPLs case not weak channel.
    29 Mar 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • douglabc
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    If there are excesses in some markets there sure aren't where I live: a community of about 160K. Best Buy, Office Depot, Simply Mac, Staples, etc. have only 64G 4g white iPads in stock.


    All I need is a 32G WiFi (preferably black) Ipad because my Ipad 1 is too slow.
    30 Mar 2012, 07:05 AM Reply Like
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