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Official Chinese PMI, which highlights larger factories, 53.1 in March vs. 51 in February and...

Official Chinese PMI, which highlights larger factories, 53.1 in March vs. 51 in February and forecasts of 50.5, marking the fourth straight month of gains. However, HSBC PMI, which measures smaller factories, 48.3 in March (flash reading was 48.1) vs. February's 49.6, marking the fifth successive month of contraction.
Comments (13)
  • Who do you believe here?

     

    Private analysis or government (Communist to boot!).

     

    I think the market will tell us who to believe.

     

    "But a private survey of smaller factories by HSBC showed a worsening slowdown. The HSBC PMI fell to 48.3 in March from February's 49.6, largely in line with a flash PMI reading of 48.1 released in March.

     

    It was fifth successive month that the HSBC PMI has missed the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction in activity, pushing the PMI into its worst quarter in three years between January and March, HSBC said.

     

    The HSBC PMI showed fewer new orders in March for small private factories, which unlike state-owned companies, have less access to bank loans and have borne the brunt of the latest economic slowdown.

     

    "A breakdown of the official PMI -- which focuses on large state-owned factories -- showed a broad rebound in production, with seemingly buoyant domestic demand pushing the new orders sub-index to 55.1 in March, from February's 51."
    1 Apr 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • It's no different than the phony numbers the US government reports to lull the retail investor into complacency. Already the MSM media (e.g. Bloomberg) are parroting how China manufacturing has expanded at the fastest pace blah blah blah. And you've got to love headlines like "Employment in March probably grew." "Probably"? That's news now? I'm "probably" going to go to the bathroom today.

     

    I'd believe Baghdad Bob over both of them.
    1 Apr 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • For some, the numbers from all sources, U.S. and abroad, only have veracity if they show declines. All positive numbers are the product of lies, damn lies and conspiracies.

     

    Unfortunately, this philosophy doesn't usually yield favorable investment results.
    1 Apr 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • These numbers are just guidelines. In the end profit of the companies you invest in counts. I am more interested in how many IPhones AAPL can sell in China and at what price.
    1 Apr 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Except we allow the domestic and foreign media to report on any inaccuracies. We have checks and balances. I can't say the same for the Chinese.
    1 Apr 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • >>>All positive numbers are the product of lies, damn lies and conspiracies.<<<

     

    When the central banks are involved, yes, you're absolutely right.

     

    We're doing so well, let's contemplate more QE! We're doing so well, let's pile more money into EFSF, LTRO, IMF! We're doing so well, let's talk of the fragility of Portugal and Spain! Yes, indeed, these are the best of times and we have reached a permanently high plateau for asset prices!

     

    Or do they just do all those things because they're fun?
    1 Apr 2012, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • slard:

     

    My main point is that many of the very same folks who rush to post news and commentary about some Chinese PMI data, or some such, that went down, and accept that downward statistic without the slightest murmur, then, turn around and dismiss as contrived any upward movement of the same data. To me, that's merely hypocrisy, regardless of whether things are getting better or worse.
    1 Apr 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • There may be some twisted logic applied here. Since the government reported a higher than expected PMI, the CBC may not ease here immediately. Markets may pull back given the prospect of less easy monetary policy coupled with the perception of some slowing from alternative data. Look for continued weakness in China shares, the commodities and the AUD.
    1 Apr 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Hard to say which way the markets go here. PMI higher but china will still need to ease.

     

    Bullish IMO, higher PMI, lower rates coming(PMI still weaker then ideal), inflation easing.....
    1 Apr 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Look at energy consumption...
    1 Apr 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • css,

     

    Good idea. Do you have a link?

     

    Last time this was mentioned, electricity consumption had collapsed which implied a slowdown in manufacturing.
    1 Apr 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • ...or warmer weather...
    1 Apr 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • official copper manufacturing in China 2011 = 1.9%, this is the reality of things, the rest is just nominal noise...
    1 Apr 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
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