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The bull market in stocks is going to run for the rest of the year, despite the market's...

The bull market in stocks is going to run for the rest of the year, despite the market's already-outsized gains, says Byron Wien. “Over the past three months the pessimistic mood has changed to optimism,” Wien observes, and buying will continue to pick up as more equity "disbelievers" are converted, the economy improves and more companies follow Apple’s lead in paying dividends.
Comments (36)
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3084) | Send Message
     
    Hey, it's on CNBC in Prime Time. Must be true. LOL
    3 Apr 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • sheeple2012
    , contributor
    Comments (203) | Send Message
     
    ok Byron... i've been on the sidelines for the last 6,500 dow points, but i think now it's a safe time to start getting INVOLVED!
    3 Apr 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    sheeple....love your sarcasm. Perhaps Byron could share his "evidence" of the returning optimism. Sounds like pure "spin" to me.
    3 Apr 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Bersaw
    , contributor
    Comments (611) | Send Message
     
    More evidence the smart money is getting nervous as the usual buyers, retail investors, are long gone leaving the institutions holding the stock grab bag.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9973) | Send Message
     
    We need to send the auditors out to verify that Bryon has 100% of his own personal money fully invested in equities. Can be almost certain that is not the case. His main interest is collecting fees and losing OPM.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • AxiosCap
    , contributor
    Comments (294) | Send Message
     
    Wien hasn't been smart money in about 20yrs.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Bersaw
    , contributor
    Comments (611) | Send Message
     
    I also found this video clip on Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen making the usual bullish case for equities.

     

    http://bloom.bg/H7CHcX

     

    Expect to hear more of the same as April progress because if last year is any indication we could be looking at around 300 drop in the S&P500.
    3 Apr 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • HoeTamer
    , contributor
    Comments (186) | Send Message
     
    Do it Sheeple, Jim Cramer and the Fed cheerleaders say go full guns.
    I got back in 100% in mid 2009 and have gone back to 65% cash. My standard rule is to cash out when averaging a 22%+ return. If you are not in already it's too late.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    All in since October. I sold a LOT last ten days of March. Didn't want to wait til May.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4132) | Send Message
     
    Buy hard assets as cheaply as you can and pray that they are not confiscated when reality sets in.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • HoeTamer
    , contributor
    Comments (186) | Send Message
     
    Hard? Like guns and ammo? Been there and done that!!!!
    3 Apr 2012, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • J 457
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    And/or buy companies that own hard assetts. Material stocks. If things get real bad all the central banks will print, inflation will jump, and materials will surge. Economy gets better and material stocks will still improve as demand increases. Or hide your money under mattress and hope you don't have a rodent that likes to eat paper.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • cshanahn12
    , contributor
    Comments (261) | Send Message
     
    The only good news is that 70% of the worlds reserves of Natural Gas are located under the United States. Unfortunately I don't think we could create enough demand for it yet in order to get us out of this crisis. But it will be that something that will bring the U.S. out of the dump and get the economy going again after it gets knocked down. The United States is the Saudi Arabia of Natural Gas. I can't wait for the next REAL bull market. The bull market since the bottom of 2009 has been artificial.
    3 Apr 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • jeff lauder
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't agree more! Natgas will propel steel companies, utilities, trucking, chemical. The list is endless. China can't leverage their natural resources like we can. Even GE is re shoring manufacturing for appliances. A 1 billion dollar bet! Buy America and thank you Ben and Tim for saving the economy. Oh yea, sell Gold. I think every Glen Beck fawn is fully invested in GOLD! You can even convert your IRA! There's a bubble.
    3 Apr 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • rrs2205rrs
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    It hasn't been artificial for me, I made REAL money..... What does it matter, when a "real bull market starts, all of you will be saying the same sh*it anyways....
    4 Apr 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    You mean all those zeros in my account are real? Dang
    4 Apr 2012, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9973) | Send Message
     
    Do you mean your actually back to even now on those investments you have held since 08/09?
    6 Apr 2012, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Julius Ferraro
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    Can't wait to put my money in now that Byron said its ok. He didn't say it the other 6500 points but i didn't want to make that much money anyway.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    LOL and they wonder why the retail guy is almost gone and there is record out flows from mutual funds
    3 Apr 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • jstratt
    , contributor
    Comments (2877) | Send Message
     
    This seems like a shocking statement from Byron Wien. Like other predictors he is merely presenting his feelings. I would say that an investor should stay invested rather than trying to sell in and out of the market.

     

    That said, my guess is we are at a level where tax related inflows are peaking. The market will likely fall back a little. I do think earnings could be better than expected. Further stocks are not historically high but are coming back to a conservative non recession average.

     

    I see lots of quality stocks with a forward PE of 12. I also see stocks using a Nouriel Roubini description as the least ugly investment alternative. My guess is another 6% rise in stocks before year end.

     

    Here is why

     

    1) Earnings get supported in a macro sense by a rising stock market.
    2) The rise in stocks this year help reduce pension costs to companies. As an example the latest numbers I had showed 3M 8% underfunded on pension liability. That has likely changed to nearly fully funded. Perhaps an extra billion will flow through to profits?
    3) The economy has improved and clearly jobs have been created which sounds like increased income, spending and earnings.
    4) When I heard banks met the stress test in mass... I translated that into banks will be lending more in 2012... again more activity and more earnings.

     

    On the other hand we have swung from worrying about a severe double dip to nary an investment worry to consider. We probably should worry a little about something... and we soon will be.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    Did you say, "Like other predictors", or did you mean "Like other predators"?
    3 Apr 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Skull & Bones
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Expect a lot more positive market comments from "windbags" like Wien. The institutions need some retail suckers to step into this market so they can exit without collapsing prices immediately.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • X-terminator
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    This is not a very wise thing to say!
    3 Apr 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • cshanahn12
    , contributor
    Comments (261) | Send Message
     
    Just an FYI for anyone who believes these "experts". They get paid large sums of money by banks to go on CNBC and spill out all this garbage about how we are going to keep going higher through 2012. The truth is that CNBC is really just a fancy paid advertisment service for wall street. They dress up in nice expensive suits and get paid to be cheerleaders for Wall Street. These people are really just con-men in suits. All of the fundumentals of economics point to an upcoming economic collapse. We have $15.6 trillion in debt, and over $100 trillion in debt liabilities. Interest rates will rise along with inflation; then comes crashing down will be the biggest ponzi scheme in human history (US Government). We could however see the stock market making new highs across the board before a collapse; only if we see QE3. If no QE3 the collapse will happen sooner than later. If QE3 happens then they will just delay the process and make the crash much worse.
    3 Apr 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • HoeTamer
    , contributor
    Comments (186) | Send Message
     
    The whole intent is to continue this farce until after the election, after that the whole thing will collapse like a house of cards. If Obama is re-elected, he'll be unrestrained in his vision of a socialist America and raise taxes on everyone to pay for his utopian society. When President Romney takes over, Obama won't give a rats a$$ what is left.
    3 Apr 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    Romney's Ok with me. He's got to be (or will be) the most liberal Republican nominee I've known.
    3 Apr 2012, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • torahislife
    , contributor
    Comments (400) | Send Message
     
    100 years ago he woulda been a side-show carnival barker. 200 years ago a snake oil salesman. 300 years ago a pirate. All of them more respectable than his current profession.
    3 Apr 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Hitesh Patel
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    The script has been out for several weeks now and retail is not biting. This must really be bothering the major players. On my ride into work i heard the puppet on Bloomberg asking Maggie Patel of Wells fargo if he (60 years old) should now only have 10% in bonds and the rest of it in stocks and she said "yes". I couldn't believe this bullshit. It sounded so rehearsed. They probably don't realize most retail has had enough in the rigged game. I can't wait for the institutions going after each other and hitting that sell button
    3 Apr 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    Ring the register.
    3 Apr 2012, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • KJP712
    , contributor
    Comments (454) | Send Message
     
    He wants you to buy so he can sell in May and go away .
    3 Apr 2012, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • bdarken
    , contributor
    Comments (492) | Send Message
     
    It's a tightrope:
    Europe is a slow motion train wreck.
    America has not kicked its spending habit.
    Bonds are a losing choice, and subject to default.
    So, to me, stock in dividend paying American companies is the
    best choice now----in spite of things.
    History shows us that BMW/MBZ/Seimons all survived both
    the depression and the war in Germany, meaning that while it may
    have been depressed or diluted, when the dust cleared, a shareholder in these companies retained some value.
    Not the case with holders of currency or bonds in that context.
    3 Apr 2012, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • bdarken
    , contributor
    Comments (492) | Send Message
     
    But then again, there's gold and land.
    4 Apr 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Husky Financial
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    does no one remember the market movement of 2003? do not underestimate 0% interest rates and bonds w/ negative real yields... the $$ has to go somewhere. Perhaps it is a participation bias (bulls making money do not need to comment on this stuff), but the bearish sentiment in these comments only makes a stronger case that there is still much more room for this market to move higher.This is all coming from someone who was super bearish to start 2012 and was long volatility. In the end, people need to realize that shorting the market is betting against central banks. Go long equities (high yielding, cash rich strong brand names) and start accumulating physical PMs with ensuing profits/dividends. A correction is coming, but not just yet. Broad sentiment is still too skeptical.
    4 Apr 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • bdarken
    , contributor
    Comments (492) | Send Message
     
    I am old enough to remember JC (Carter, not Christ) and
    how T-bill interest rates went double-digits.
    Make sure you "get-ye-som!" when it comes.
    May actually happen (as it did then) in about a year, under
    the incoming administration.
    4 Apr 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • dakinebrah
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    all these comments are so outrageous and negative. how do low borrowing costs adversely affect the economy? it allows people to refinance and helps the consumer. and we are no where near "hyperinflation" because there is simply not enough demand to cause a steep price rise anytime soon.
    4 Apr 2012, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • cshanahn12
    , contributor
    Comments (261) | Send Message
     
    The fact is that the DOW is up over 100% since 2009. The economy hasn't grown 100% since 2009. The stock market is a bubble being held up by freshly printed money and artificially low interest rates. We have record high debt levels at $15.6 Trillion and mounting, $60 trillion in liabilities, and not to mention the huge mess happening over in Europe. It is almost edged in stone that the Financial System will collapse in Europe; they have just delayed the process and made the situation worse down the road. After Europe is done falling the United States debt bubble and Dollar bubbles will burst. This is going to happen, its just a matter of when. The governments can keep delaying the process through monetary measures but in the end WHAT GOES UP, MUST COME DOWN!! Govenments just need to accept the cycles of economics and let the markets fall. ELECTING A NEW PRESIDENT WOULD BE A GOOD START!! WE CAN'T AFFORD 4 MORE YEARS!!
    18 Apr 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
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