- "There is no fear in Silicon Valley right now," proclaims Benchmark VC Bill Gurley, once more raising alarm bells about a perceived bubble in private tech funding and valuations. He predicts some "unicorns" - startups with $1B+ valuations, a club whose ranks have swelled rapidly over the last couple of years - will go belly-up in 2015.
- Gurley expects Facebook (FB -0.7%) to be one of the companies hurt by the shakeout, given its dependence on mobile app install ads that are often sold to startups looking to gain exposure for their apps. Though Facebook hasn't given an exact number, install ads are believed to account for a large portion of the company's mobile ad sales, which in turn were 69% of its total Q4 ad revenue.
- Gurley's remarks come as The Information reports Facebook will use its March 25-26 f8 conference to unveil tools that let developers track the performance of install ads both on Facebook and 3rd-party apps. Google and Twitter entered the install ad market last year; Google, which currently places install ads within mobile search results, is set to expand its offerings to include ads placed within the Google Play app.
- Other Facebook news: 1) BofA/Merrill argues today Instagram is worth up to $37B, and WhatsApp up to $32B. It thinks each platform could eventually deliver ~$4B/year in revenue, and that Instagram's MAU count could top 500M next year. Cowen recently gave Instagram a $33B valuation. 2) Facebook has updated its community standards to clarify its stance on adult content, hate speech, regulated goods, and several other matters.
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Previously: Gurley on tech startup valuations