- According to Bloomberg, AstraZeneca's (AZN +2.6%) previously stated plan to increase revenue 75% by 2023 is looking a bit wobbly. In cancer, for example, it trails three competitors in immunotherapies for lung cancer. The FDA approved Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY +0.2%) Opdivo for the indication on March 4. AZN's candidate, MEDI4736, is still in clinical development with an NDA filing on tap for next year. Being late to the party means modest sales unless there is a profound advantage, something that MEDI4736 may not have unless combined with other drugs.
- If the company's sales growth fails to ramp, its valuation could slump and encourage another takeover bid. AZN currently sports a P/E of 79 versus the industry average of 25 (per msn money).
- Last year, CEO Pascal Soriot fought off a $117B bid from Pfizer (PFE +0.2%) telling investors that the firm could increase revenues to $45B by 2023. The company remains bullish, though. Spokesperson Esra Erkal-Paler says that the firm is making significant progress and that oncology drugs could represent 25% of sales by 2023, up from 12% in 2014. It is currently running clinical studies of AZD9291, a non-immune therapy, in lung cancer patients with a specific mutation who have relapsed after prior treatment. If it can beat rival Clovis Oncology (CLVS -2.4%) to the market, it could be worth as much as $3B per year.
- Mirabaud analyst Nick Turner says that even if all the drugs in the pipeline make it to the market, AZN will have to stretch to reach $45B in 2023 because two of its biggest sellers, Crestor (ttm sales=$5.5B) and Nexium (ttm sales=$3.7B), face declining sales from the loss of patent protection.