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After another blowout Q1, there's a sense of deja vu settling in over the markets. Last year saw...

After another blowout Q1, there's a sense of deja vu settling in over the markets. Last year saw an early rally mauled by a dramatic downturn in the spring. Ominously, many of those issues that preoccupied investors last year are still in play now. So, with end of the Fed’s Operation Twist approaching and oil prices rising, many fear we've just set ourselves up for another seasonal downturn.
Comments (29)
  • MonsieurMoneyBags
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Anyone who isn't a retail sheep knows this week was the 2012 highs
    6 Apr 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Funny the "dumb money" has been steadily selling into this rally perhaps they are no longer the "sheep" they were once thought to be.

     

    Maybe the "dumb money" has figured out the "buy low, sell high" part of the process of investing.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12807) | Send Message
     
    It's hilarious. We get a 1.5% dip, after a huge run-up, and already the doom crowd shows up predicting the end of the world.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • MonsieurMoneyBags
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    LMAO your stupid enough to think retails bought the lows of the rally?
    You make Cramer look like a genius - It's been fairly obvious since October that Bernanke has been giving trillions to the Agency banks to buy up the market and give the illusion of a strong market to sell into..

     

    notice the low volume w/t institutional distribution the last 2 month?
    Dumb Money didn't come into the market till late Jan, they will be lucky to get break even by the end of the month
    6 Apr 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (7647) | Send Message
     
    Tack
    Perhaps the "doom crowd" knows the ups and downs of the market and also knows when to take profit and get out. I really don't think that is "predicting the end of the world".
    We all have our own investing ideas and that is what makes for a market.
    Good luck with your philosophy.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12807) | Send Message
     
    wyo:

     

    The doom crowd always "knows" when to sell, but never when to buy, so they rarely ever have a position from which to take a profit. That's why most of them always evidence an angry, cynical edge to their commentary.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • MonsieurMoneyBags
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Tack aren't you the guy who said it was just a little dip the day after you bought FSLR at 300$ :D This shit never gets old
    6 Apr 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Trader2708
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    It is really hilarious. Market was on a high dope, called QE1, QE2, Twist, and that only goosed the markets. Now we see that real economy is weak, and dope is out. More QE's?

     

    Per Albert Einstein: "Insanity is all about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Yes, bring more QE out, and economy will still be weak. Labor problem is structural, nobody is talking about the "end of the world".
    6 Apr 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (7647) | Send Message
     
    Tack
    Testy this morning. What kind of coffee today?
    6 Apr 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12807) | Send Message
     
    MMB:

     

    Like I'd ever be caught dead owning a solar stock, or even another non-yielding tech stock. Can you believe I have handily outperformed the market over the last seventeen years without ever owning a single tech stock, not a one?
    6 Apr 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12807) | Send Message
     
    wyo:

     

    My usual is Sumatra, but today it's French Roast. :-)
    6 Apr 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • MonsieurMoneyBags
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Easy to say that now - Hindsight has a way of being bias :D
    6 Apr 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (7647) | Send Message
     
    Tack
    Enjoy.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    Nope, what is really hilarious....is the collective thinking of some people here. If the market drops 100+ in a day it means the start of a collapse.....if the market surges 100+ in a day it means the start of a boom....
    6 Apr 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Trader2708
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    Well, 10 Year at 2.04% handle, we shall see how this plays out.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    I agree. One good result of the Great Recession is that the average Joe in America is rightfully very cynical about the self-interested suggestions and predictions of politicians and financial advisers.
    6 Apr 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    The most vocal icon of the "doom crowd" (whatever that means), Jim Rodgers, has smoked every American stock market shill on Wall Street for the last decade by leaps and bounds. There's more to investing than the US stock market.
    6 Apr 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Monsieur,

     

    from SA this week:
    "Thursday, April 5, 8:49 AM Investors pulled another $3.53B from U.S. equity funds in the week ended March 28, the sixth straight week of outflows during which investors have pulled ~$13B - even as stocks were flying, the economy was improving and Europe had moved away from the brink. The market’s recent turbulence likely means investors will keep pulling money from those funds in the coming weeks."

     

    Not only are you an a-hole considering we haven't communicated previously apparently you are stupid as well. Normally I am not nasty in response but I think you deserve it.

     

    Mutual fund flows are the proxy for retail money:
    http://bit.ly/HsLhFi
    "Equity funds had estimated outflows of $4.43 billion for the week, compared to estimated outflows of $1.08 billion in the previous week. Domestic equity funds had estimated outflows of $3.53 billion, while estimated outflows from foreign equity funds were $906 million.

     

    Hybrid funds, which can invest in stocks and fixed income securities, had estimated inflows of $1.65 billion for the week, compared to estimated inflows of $1.82 billion in the previous week.

     

    Bond funds had estimated inflows of $6.12 billion, compared to estimated inflows of $5.66 billion during the previous week. Taxable bond funds saw estimated inflows of $5.47 billion, while municipal bond funds had estimated inflows of $656 million."
    6 Apr 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    It all depends upon whether the "swoon" is short-lived in which case it would set up a nice entry point to trade the markets assuming there is a decent sized correction.

     

    I am bearish on the economy but right now I am erring to very slow rather than recession as opposed to nice expansion which is the consensus view. If consensus turns definitively negative again then I think you will get a nice correction and an opportunity.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Billntx
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Baa.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1434) | Send Message
     
    dont confuse the real economy with the markets - particularly now in this period of unprecedented government intervention, manipulation and outright participation and in the further context of thin vol, black boxes and other artificial forces.
    for many, things are great - those that dont pay a mortgage can buy ipads, iphone and go out to eat; the rich are having a field day with low interest rates and sales and deals being offered; many large corporations are flush with cash and have the upper hand in dealing with employees
    like it or not, trust it or not there are good opportunities long and short
    6 Apr 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Blue Sky 35
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    My take is that the swoon won't be as deep or as long as last year - because there are too many positive economic data points.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • HoeTamer
    , contributor
    Comments (186) | Send Message
     
    I don't trust any of the economic data points, the books have been cooked, the markets manipulated and unemployment numbers tortured. Everyone can see there is very low job growth and the participation rate is as low as ever. The only data that matters to me now are the first quarter earnings.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • berniespear
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
     
    The sky is falling!

     

    Or actually the market will continue to run in April...
    6 Apr 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Fear not. If the market swoons, Uncle Ben will buy some more inkjet printers and announce the beginning of the next phase of his next heroic effort to save the economy with money printing: "Operation Twist and Shout".
    6 Apr 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • torahislife
    , contributor
    Comments (400) | Send Message
     
    Liquidity is the massive enema Washington gives Wallstreet. Never seen an equities rally so full of bulls***. The coming blow-out will be a massive stinker. Is it OK to say Obama is a terd?
    6 Apr 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Trader2708
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    But that same liquidity causes massive viscious circle, because it is only goosing the markets, does nothing (and literally: nothing) for the economy. There was QE1, and economy stumbled again in 2010. QE2, and economy stumbled again in 2011. Operation Twist, and economy stumbles again in 2012. Per Albert Einstein: "Insanity is all about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

     

    QE3, and economy will stumble again after high dope for Wall Street.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (7647) | Send Message
     
    Trader
    Agree. However,with each new Fed action, the eventual day of reckoning will be that much more severe.
    6 Apr 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Trader2708
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely. Bernanke is no longer capable of leading the FED, mostly because of his actions that have been proven wrong. Deja vu over and over again, but, as you point out correctly, after each dose of hopium things would get much worse.
    7 Apr 2012, 01:47 AM Reply Like
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