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For Nomura, the most troubling part of today's NFP report is the 34K decline seen in retail...

For Nomura, the most troubling part of today's NFP report is the 34K decline seen in retail jobs, which follows February's 29K decline. The firm doesn't think the losses, which contrast sharply with March's healthy same-store sales data, can be explained by weather, and thinks they make April 16's retail sales report especially important. Could high gas prices be responsible?
Comments (27)
  • Didn't everyone get a raise to compensate for the high gas prices?
    Why should the price of gas have an impact on retail sales? I heard on CNBC that it will have no impact what so ever.
    Pure rubbish.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • With nat gas/coal prices down, the impact of higher gasoline prices should be completely off set. Love how analysts only look at one part of the picture instead of the full pic.


    Not to mention, most people that struggled from high gas prices back in 2008 have now switched to more fuel efficient vehicles.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Why would higher gas prices possibly affect retail spending. Gee, I would have no clue. /sarcasm off.


    As far as I'm aware few people got a raise. The extension of current withholding rates was not a raise it left things constant. Had it not been extended it would have been a cut in disposable income.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • agreed, I have saved SO much money on my recent coal purchases (??) that I didn't even notice my last $75 fill-up, lol...
    6 Apr 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Do you heat you home with coal?
    As for auto's, most people since 2008 can't afford a new car.
    Time for your return trip to earth.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • and yes, it was so hard to make ends meet with $4 gas in 2008 that I went out and bought a new
    6 Apr 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    Not to mention, most people that struggled from high gas prices back in 2008 have now switched to more fuel efficient vehicles.
    Now they have to pay hi gas prices in addition to new fuel efficient vehicles loan payments
    6 Apr 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Good response.... That argument is rediculous, who is even heating their home period? Anybody cold out there? I moved from Tallahassee to Denver this year and I'm getting the same kind of winter i got in Tally last year lol.
    7 Apr 2012, 04:17 AM Reply Like
  • The impact of retail sales migrating to online?
    6 Apr 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Possible but got any stats to show that online retail is increasing staffing?
    6 Apr 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Here comes the "open the SPR" crowd again...
    6 Apr 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Aggregate volume is down. Sames stores sales is in nominal dollars, which is up because prices of stuff is up, but volume of goods moved is down.


    See JM Smucker's Q4 conference call.. they raised prices on average, 16%, sales were up 10%, but volume of their products sold down 4% and they site a 5 year low in food and beverage volume.


    Key word is volume. Don't be fooled by nominal sales being up and assume volume is ain't.
    6 Apr 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • JT,
    Good comment. It's mainly inflationary price increases by the oligarchs and corny capitalists. And the same is happening in much of big corporate america, ie. prices up and volumes down as they continue to squeeze average americans.
    6 Apr 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jason
    But the Fed has told us repeatedly that there is no inflation so you must be wrong. There must be some other explanation.
    6 Apr 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • JM Smucker's is your example. Really? Well, that just about covers everything doesn't it.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stone.... exactly. Sure there may be a few other examples and it's a worthwhile point to make, but it wouldn't move the needle.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • I saw it last summer at the local Dairy Queen in a different way. Instead of raising prices they cut the serving sizes (12 oz small became a medium) and lines at the store were cut in half.


    I am sure they made their sales targets but volumes were down.
    6 Apr 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • NO ! The most troubling part of today's NFP report is the numbers were pitiful !
    6 Apr 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Obama promised us that "energy prices would necessarily increase" under his Regime. This is one campaign promise he has kept.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Yea, SoldHigh....the only one.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Talking point fiction never dies, I see. Yes I know the context of the specific comment. Thanks for playing.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Retail numbers on SSS are decent because of consolidation. With so many less stores out there of course Zumiez is going to be up huge YOY on SS. And Ross is a trade down. etc. etc.
    6 Apr 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Very true, I had thought about making this point. Though the overall picture has improved, specific retailers are still contracting/closing locations previously identified.
    6 Apr 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Gas prices won't affect the economy very much. The farmer who fuels his tractor will just assume the increased operating costs and not pass them on. The trucker who takes the food to market, delivers fertilizer, etc., likewise. The power consumption at food processing plants will be happy to eat their profits, too. And the workers getting to work, they will not demand a raise or offsetting compensation. The grocery store won't think of charging you more for its increased energy and operating costs. Oh, no.


    And the consumer will be eating out, making discretionary purchases at various shopping outlets at the same level and frequency. And the stores will not fire people due to decreased income, margins, due to lack of customers.


    Yeah, let's get those energy prices, gas prices, way up there, in order to usher in a New Age of Green on the outside and Red on the inside Utopia. As in all Socialist/Progressive/... systems, it works well as long as people are afraid, ignorant, equally miserable, and don't think and behave as a Borg Collective Unit, a member of the Hive.
    6 Apr 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Spot on, Chief. I'm a retailer of consumer discretionary products, and I'm trying to imagine a way to impose a stupid fee on every customer who votes Democrat. If I can't come up with a green do-gooder "fair share" scheme I'll consider closing shop if Obama's re-elected. Or better yet, sell my business at an inflated value to a trust-fund hippie.
    7 Apr 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Chief-yup- Obumba and the Bernanke are following their script. Everyone knows that energy and food price inputs don't belong in the inflation calculation; only housing costs. When housing reinflates, it will be given the boot and some other declining asset class will take it's place- sort of the inverse of the games played with the DJIA.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Taken from a Value Line report on Sherwin-Williams ( America's largest producer of paints, varnishes, auto coatings etc...) 3/30/12


    "The company expects raw material prices to rise 8%-12% in 2012. Titanium dioxide pigment probably accounts for more than 25% of Sherwin's commodity costs. Producers of this material boosted prices by 8% ($0.15/lb) on Feb. 1st, and are considering a similar boost on April 1st. To help offset this increase, Sherwin raised prices by 8% effective Feb.1st. That marked its sixth increase (totaling more than 35%) since April 2010."


    Combine this example with the JM Smucker example above and we can see inflation in two very different industries. Are average wages/salaries increasing this much?


    I don't quite know what to make of Bernanke, but I don't trust what he says about inflation.
    7 Apr 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
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