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Offshore drillers still not an attractive value proposition, analyst says

Apr. 21, 2015 11:48 AM ETOcean Rig UDW Inc. (ORIG) StockATW, RIG, RDC, NE, SDRL, ORIG, PACD, DO, VALBy: Carl Surran, SA News Editor13 Comments
  • Raymond James doubles down on its negative outlook for offshore drilling contractors, as the firm cites the lack of new contracts and the need for a much more significant move in oil prices to materially change the sector's landscape.
  • The firm says the current contracting rate trends well below its expected pace and even below 2009 levels as the desire to pursue further activity skids to a halt, and believes that 2016 consensus estimates have substantial room for downward earnings revisions; including contract cancellations, the sector actually experienced negative incremental demand during the Q1.
  • Raymond James sees the average offshore rig count declining by 13% in 2016 and a further 4% in 2017; even with cost-cutting efforts, it expects the average uncontracted rig to lose money as leading edge dayrates will flirt with risked breakeven levels with only minimal recovery in the next two years given the levels of excess supply.
  • Offshore drillers are lower today: ORIG -5.8%, RIG -4.5%, SDRL -4.1%, NE -2.8%, ESV -2.8%, DO -2.1%, ATW -2.1%, PACD -2%, RDC -1.9%.

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