Alcoa (AA): Q1 EPS of $0.10 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $6.01B (flat Y/Y) beats by $240M. Shares...


Alcoa (AA): Q1 EPS of $0.10 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $6.01B (flat Y/Y) beats by $240M. Shares +4% AH. (PR)
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Comments (44)
  • Tack
    , contributor
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    Not a good start for the gloomers.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4431) | Send Message
     
    I bet a lot of shorts got burned...
    10 Apr 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    Looks exactly like after hours short covering. Is it a buy here?

     

    Was up almost to $11 in Jan.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9903) | Send Message
     
    CW,
    Did you see the actual Alcoa summary stats for the only thing that actually matters ... YoY real number comparisons (per CNBC summary).

     

    Actual EPS: Q1/11=$0.28/share vs. Q1/12=$0.10/share
    - and actual decline in earnings of 65%

     

    Actual revenue: Q1/11=5.96b vs. Q1/12=6.01b
    - a trivial increase of less than 1%, not even enough to match worldwide inflation rates.

     

    Actual income from operations: Q1/11=$0.27/share vs. Q1/12=$0.09
    -and actual decrease of 67% in operating income.

     

    An exceptionally poor performance by Alcoa by the only standard that matters ... actual real results.

     

    Of course the perma-bulls like tack, econdoc, and the wall street pundits try to spin it as some type of great deal because they managed to beat some type of meaningless estimates and "beat" the artificial forecast. Who cares? They ACTUALLY did much much worse than last year, which is what the REAL numbers and REAL comparisons show.. That's what real investors need to be looking at and understanding.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Husky Financial
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    This is the exact point I was trying to make below. Well said, UI.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    UI:

     

    What's the matter, were you short AA?

     

    Given the sizable pullback in Chinese growth rates, and in especially construction, in the past year, this was a laudable performance. Aluminum prices have been way down, but AA managed to increase shipping volumes in all sectors.

     

    You have been consistently bearish on the economy and markets for months, and consistently wrong. "That's what real investors need to be looking at and understanding."
    10 Apr 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1800) | Send Message
     
    UI,

     

    I don't really follow this stock so yes your point is well-taken - the "less-bad" is really good spin is in part a sign of desperation.

     

    Thanks for the data.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9903) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    LOL, why don't you try reporting the REAL FACTS, which we just did, instead of constantly spinning the bullish nonsense that you always do.

     

    BTW, likely far far outperformed you over the last 6 months. Many of our latest option trades are up anywhere from 50-100% in just the last week alone. You got any 100% winners since even Oct/11, much less in a few of days.

     

    You should seriously consider getting a job with GS or Crammer. You would be a perfect parrot for the wall street shysters.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    Tack, you have been spot on thru all this rally. Thanks for helping us make real money.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    UI:

     

    If you wish to mention people by name, then you should expect some pointed replies, especially when your market advice has been in error since last September, almost without exception.
    10 Apr 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • schatzl
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    good post
    10 Apr 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (364) | Send Message
     
    thats a huge beat. wonder how they did it?
    10 Apr 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Financial Insights
    , contributor
    Comments (928) | Send Message
     
    Haha. Ridiculous how far off the "analysts" were. Classic example of be greedy when others are fearful. This happened exactly the same way last quarter as well.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4431) | Send Message
     
    Not surprising really, most analysts just follow the herd and do very little actual analyzing.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robin Hewitt
    , contributor
    Comments (5473) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, Andrew. As far as I know not one "analyst" predicted a profit...and I've been following this (long AA). Instead there were a number of lengthy and elaborate channel studies "demonstrating" that AA was sure to report a loss.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Wm the Shrubber
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    AA is seen as a bellweather. These results notwithstanding, it is still hard to see how the macro climate can favor robust earnings for this quarter and/or looking ahead. It may simply be that expectations have been regeared so low that results can be spun positive even if generally poor.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Wall Street Smart
    , contributor
    Comments (472) | Send Message
     
    This is a great beat. AA's earnings are probably as important as that of AAPL. Cannot emphasize how important this beat is. Assuming WFC and JPM report good numbers this week the market should rally by about 5%.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (364) | Send Message
     
    anytime you make money when everyone expects you to lose it, thats going to generate some upside. 75 million shares or so short, someone has to think about covering right? what does this say about china? things not so bad afterall//??
    10 Apr 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • 867046
    , contributor
    Comments (380) | Send Message
     
    "The company reaffirmed its estimate that aluminum demand would rise 7% in 2012, after 10% growth in 2011."
    10 Apr 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Husky Financial
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    I'm not saying they did, but there are a lot of accounting tricks to manipulate EPS. I would not get all giddy just yet... this is a good sign, however one should keep in mind that there are a lot of ways to sweeten up the books.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    Husky, the huge beat was because of revenues, underlying demand is strong.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Husky Financial
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    I guess we will see when more details are released but the "beat" in revenue was still flat YoY. It's not like demand increased over the past year, it just hasn't decreased. Also, there are different ways to book revenue.. if they are deferring revenue from previous contracts, that is not speaking much about the health of the global economy today. I'm more concerned with some of the nitty gritty details of the report and their FY12 outlook.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't matter Alcoa in itself, it changes market sentiment. The bears better hope J&P Morgan misses this week.....
    10 Apr 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Husky Financial
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    Oh no I totally agree with you... just playing devils advocate :)
    10 Apr 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    Got it :)
    10 Apr 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • GalXZ
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Nice start to the earnings season.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (364) | Send Message
     
    id love to see how the banks do. i think they provide the most significant potential for a "catalyst" to the upside for the general market. they have to be coining money in this environment.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    You can cut costs to make the earnings, but when the beat comes because of revenues, you know aggregate demands is strong.

     

    So I am sorry for zerohedge....once again wrong!
    10 Apr 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robin Hewitt
    , contributor
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    Congratulations Alcoa!
    10 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • berniespear
    , contributor
    Comments (251) | Send Message
     
    Nice start.

     

    Keep it going!
    10 Apr 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • dab3z
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    Like the beat. General downward revisions of this quarter's earnings in the past weeks has set us up for seeing "better than expected" over and over again. Hoping the market rebounds strong tomorrow.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • X-terminator
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    With cost of Aluminum so low maybe industries are stocking up. Inventories increasing with no real production!
    10 Apr 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • jjmc2001
    , contributor
    Comments (1357) | Send Message
     
    I am long AA but beating lowered estimates is simply not that great an indicator. Aluminum is still low priced and demand is not great. AA has done a good job of cutting higher cost production but this quarterly report is not going to make me buy more AA.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • nickthebest
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    will the stock go up? at least to 10.22 by this week? what do you guyz think.. help me out
    10 Apr 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • nickthebest
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    i bought 2000 shares of AA at 10.22 do you think it will go up?
    10 Apr 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • nickthebest
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    i bought AA at 10.22 (2000 shares) im not sure if i should sell them now at after merket at 9.85 or tomorrow morning.. seems like the result will go well
    10 Apr 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • captcrly
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Great!!!!
    10 Apr 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (9526) | Send Message
     
    I have been long AA and held on to my position even though the analysts were predicting a sound thrashing.
    More proof that the "experts" really don't have a leg up on the rest of us.
    I wish that just once an analyst would give the reasons for missing on a stock like AA.
    Another reason for me to never listen to the analysts without researching said stock for myself.
    10 Apr 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Financial Insights
    , contributor
    Comments (928) | Send Message
     
    When they are all crapping out the same thing, you know it is a good time to buy.
    10 Apr 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Husky Financial
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    Does this work on the opposite spectrum? If all the analysts are climbing over each other for who has the highest Apple price target, is now the time to sell?
    10 Apr 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4431) | Send Message
     
    To some extent it does, but momentum can carry stocks higher even (or because) they are overhyped for a while. I probably would not sell AAPL now, but I would also be reluctant to buy. But even analysts cannot be wrong all of the time :D
    11 Apr 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (9526) | Send Message
     
    Apple is my top holding in my portfolio. I have added shares over the years and do not see any reason to stop adding shares at this point. Playing with "house money" is a good position to be in, in my opinion.

     

    I do find myself agreeing with the analysts who share my views, but I manage my own portfolio and the buck stops with me, so to speak. Keep in mind that Alex Guana, an Apple analyst, downgraded Apple back in the $200-250 range. He still has a job as far as I know.

     

    Short answer to your question: I don't believe now is the time to sell Apple. Tablet sales are going to double in the next year, and Apple holds over 60% of the tablet market. Throw in the iPhone and you have yourself a Buy. (not short, I know, but I hope it makes sense)
    10 Apr 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • WisPokerGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (1363) | Send Message
     
    While I'll admit that Alcoa's earnings report is pretty meaningless in its self, the "gloomers" would love to attempt to push the market back to fall 2011 lows without looking at the data. In their eyes, every bit of good news is rubbish and every bit of bad news is "see I told you so". That's just silly.

     

    Even though it is very slow, the economy is obviously improving and if you listened to the Alcoa CEO report on his company's earnings this afternoon, you can see the progress being made because this report was without a doubt a HUGE surprise. Although economic growth is certainly not where anyone would hope it to be, I feel secure in saying... No Chicken Little, the sky is not falling.
    10 Apr 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Wall Street Smart
    , contributor
    Comments (472) | Send Message
     
    The data you get from the conference call is phenomenal. Strong quarter for their automotive business, Strong Aerospace, Weak industrial and Weak Housing supply business.
    11 Apr 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
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