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Initial Jobless Claims: 380K vs. 359K consensus (prior week revised to 367K from 357K)....

Initial Jobless Claims: 380K vs. 359K consensus (prior week revised to 367K from 357K). Continuing claims -98K to 3.34M.
Comments (40)
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    I believe that is what is known as bad news.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • labas112
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    Just wait until next week when the 380K is revised up again to 400k like every other revision.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Dana Blankenhorn
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    Most revisions lately have been downward. But 380k is a very bad number.
    12 Apr 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but it might mean more QE, so it's good news. Embrace the manic-depressive contorted logic.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Is this a misprint? If not, this is going to be one hell of a spin day for the media after last weeks celebration of 3 or 4 year lows.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10389) | Send Message
     
    Hey, look the DOW is already up 164 at 1:24. Go figure.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9732) | Send Message
     
    Watch everybody get in a tizzy....52 week moving avg. of NSA jobless claims drops 1118 to 393,233....no recession....but sell the market please
    12 Apr 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    That's good news about the 52 wk average, what about the shorter MA such as 4 wk...and yes those short term averages are relevant in the world of economic forecasting as you well know.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    I'll disagree with your no recession (shocker I know). The number of people that are no longer counted...thus not applying is massive compared to last year (or last decade). The 52 week average doesn't take that into account. Additionally, it lags if a negative trend begins to show.
    http://bit.ly/x575dt
    The climb in NILF compared to population growth is staggering.
    http://bit.ly/vNEbLu
    12 Apr 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9732) | Send Message
     
    Papa....the 52 ma has predictive value....participation rate does not
    so I don't follow it....
    12 Apr 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • schatzl
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    I do. Because it gives me a clearer picture of the fundamental health and sustainability of consumption and therefore GDP. It may not be a short term mover and shaker, but it tells me how consumption is payed for: debt or wages. I know which I prefer.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    bbro...I disagree. Participation rate and NILF show the health of the economy long term. Is there really enough job growth? Great predictor for the number of people on some sort of social assistance, which translates to fed, state and local govt spending, tax revenue, job quality (quantity doesn't cut it), impact of inflation, etc..
    The workforce growing too slowly to compensate for a more rapidly expanding non-workforce (but still work age) leads to long term problems in numerous areas.
    The 52ma is slow to react to trends in a market that is extremely reactionary. Of course now the market will hope that QE will be back on the table.
    Granted...I will be surprised if initial claims stay this high...but the real number was the 98,000 that fell off extended benefits. Where did these people go? We will have to wait a month or 2 to find out.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9732) | Send Message
     
    Initial Jobless claims and continuing claims are two different numbers and when I say predictor I mean for recessions...I have some other
    indicators related to jobless claims and they flash no recession
    12 Apr 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • TS Douglas
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    Excellent supporting data. Thanks!

     

    With jobs numbers like these investors must ask themselves where the consumer buying power (2/3 of GDP) will come from to prevent a double-dip recession.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3530) | Send Message
     
    "...I will be surprised if initial claims stay this high...but the real number was the 98,000 that fell off extended benefits. Where did these people go? "

     

    I believe there are some opportunities in sales offered by the Mexican drug cartels. However, these won't show up in the employment numbers.
    12 Apr 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10389) | Send Message
     
    Papa....the number not in the work force now is 88 million people. Truly amazing. Yep....everything is fine. We even have the 55-64 age group participation rates increasing. The old farts like me are taking the jobs from the young whipper-snappers.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10389) | Send Message
     
    And in this Balance Sheet recession......consumers are trying to avoid taking on additional debt.

     

    Here's the NILF chart from FRED. The slope of the line does not appear to be mitigating.
    http://bit.ly/HAk19w
    12 Apr 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10389) | Send Message
     
    Turnover rate is quite high I understand.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    All together now: unexpectedly!

     

    The "recovery" marches on!
    12 Apr 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3530) | Send Message
     
    The "snail recovery" wiggles on.
    12 Apr 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13401) | Send Message
     
    Not that anybody will pay much attention, but the economy is driven by the behavior of the vast majority of people with money and jobs, not minor changes at the unemployment margin. And, that behavior is getting more confident, not the reverse.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Not sure it is getting more confident as much as it is getting more credit. Sub-prime loans are rising...and rising rapidly.
    http://nyti.ms/I9VRgm

     

    "Credit card lenders gave out 1.1 million new cards to borrowers with damaged credit in December, up 12.3 percent from the same month a year earlier, according to Equifax’s credit trends report released in March. These borrowers accounted for 23 percent of new auto loans in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from 17 percent in the same period of 2009, Experian, a credit scoring firm, said."
    12 Apr 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • slard271
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Read: The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

     

    The economy is driven by this in aggregate and the purchasing power (or lack thereof) of the people who have "fallen out of the workforce" is, shall we say, non-trivial.

     

    http://bit.ly/Iyong0
    12 Apr 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Jason B
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    Let's see how quickly this gets blown out of proportion...oh wait the comments already have.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10389) | Send Message
     
    Jason, perhaps you could frame the discussion for us?
    12 Apr 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • jeff lauder
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    The participation rate could be effected by massive boomer retirement. Those jobs are filled by population growth at par. Any job growth drives UE lower.
    12 Apr 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10389) | Send Message
     
    Jeff....the WFPR for those over 65 was 15% in 2007 and is now 18% iin 2012. Totaling 41 million plus, that means the old farts have now taken over 800k jobs from the young bucks.....or they are staying in longer because they can't afford to leave.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Dana Blankenhorn
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    It's fun watching the right find excuses to insist a recovery is not a recovery. Participation rate! Old farts!

     

    More jobs is more jobs. Positive GDP is positive GDP. Get over it.

     

    It wasn't that long ago that a 380k jobless claim number was reason to cheer. Now it's oh noes! And that's OK. If it continues into a few more weeks it might mean trouble ahead. Worry about it if it comes.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10389) | Send Message
     
    Hey you're welcome to your definition of recovery - which seems to be any job growth is a good thing. And just so you know, I don't worry about anything except my family. The rest of the stuff doesn't matter.
    12 Apr 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • TeresaE
    , contributor
    Comments (3041) | Send Message
     
    Who cares about this weeks number, which technically should be lower than normal as Good Friday and Easter cause procrastination amongst the newly laid off and depressed?

     

    Look at the dang REVISIONS. EVERY week for the past month or so, the headlines have screamed "LOWEST CLAIM # IN YEARS." EVERY week (13/13 if you are keeping track), this number is revised higher.

     

    Reality on the ground, amongst the 45-50% of us employers that qualify as small businesses, we find our costs to keep employees (and the associated production they create) are EXPLODING (which also explains the uptick in personal "income" without any associated uptick in take home pay) and it won't take much of a "shock" (pick a shoe that is on the verge of dropping, everything from car & cc repossessions/defaults, Occupy riots causing government overreach, invading Syria/Iran, North Korea, radiation in Japan, China/Russia testing the waters, Europe, Banks, yanking of commercial mortgage, interest increase, 2013 royal butt screwing we all will be taking from the fed gov, whatever) to hit my peers and another swath of the employed become the formerly gainful to total parasite.

     

    But lord knows I love to come over here and read the resident perma-bulls ignoring the real world because their own little comfort zone is still set on fine.

     

    Their "insight" into the cause/effect of the underlying trends and the plight of those riding on their/our perma-bulls' backs (which will soon become much heavier) mean nothing to them. Having government, banking, insurance, health care and the non-workers and retired exploding in size don't bother them none. They truly believe a healthy, organically growing society can be created out of a bunch of people selling pills that require even more pills bought via profits for the banking, insurance and legal systems.

     

    Benny and O are magic, this time really is different, and what's a few hundred thousand more job seekers when we are simply awash in McJobs and temp agencies (which are dropping employment, btw)?

     

    Ponzi on you Rosy guys, ponzi on. I truly appreciate the smiles you bring me.
    12 Apr 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9732) | Send Message
     
    "Look at the dang REVISIONS. EVERY week for the past month or so, the headlines have screamed "LOWEST CLAIM # IN YEARS." EVERY week (13/13 if you are keeping track), this number is revised higher."

     

    You need to do some homework on initial jobless claims...look at the
    non seasonally adjusted numbers through a 52 week moving average which deals with revision issue....if you don't want to do that then you have already made your mind up in which case you don't even need to look at the numbers....
    13 Apr 2012, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    I don't like it but let's see what the next 2 to 3 weeks hold

     

    As for participation rate - not worth worrying about - boomer retirements means that the number is not going to be what it wss and most of the echo boomers are still not in the workforce - use commonesense.

     

    If you want to look at something more macro - look at the total employed - more meaningful. Look at unemployed per opening and look at JOLTS. All more meaningful.

     

    E
    12 Apr 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    Edoc,

     

    You might have missed this story earlier this week. You might want to rethink the premise of: "As for participation rate - not worth worrying about - boomer retirements means that the number is not going to be what it wss"

     

    From SA on Monday (and including my comment):
    http://bit.ly/HAjWCT

     

    "What we've observed in the employment figures is not recovery, but desperation," writes John Hussman. Of the 1.84M gain in payrolls since the recession's "end," 2.96M jobs have gone to workers 55+, while employment for those under 55 has shrunk by 1.12M. By shorting savers of interest income and promoting repeated booms/busts - but no durable returns - "the Fed has successfully provoked job growth of the obligatory, low-wage variety." [View news story]

     

    That explains why I see so many more seniors bagging groceries at the local Publix markets - the "golden years".

     

    Man what a tragedy. Read that excerpt above again - these are the casualties of the war on savers.

     

    Another interesting excerpt:

     

    "Beginning first with Alan Greenspan, and then with Ben Bernanke, the Fed has increasingly pursued policies of suppressing interest rates, even driving real interest rates to negative levels after inflation. Combine this with the bursting of two Fed-enabled (if not Fed-induced) bubbles - one in stocks and one in housing, and the over-55 cohort has suffered an assault on its financial security: a difficult trifecta that includes the loss of interest income, the loss of portfolio value, and the loss of home equity. All of these have combined to provoke a delay in retirement plans and a need for these individuals to re-enter the labor force.

     

    In short, what we've observed in the employment figures is not recovery, but desperation."
    12 Apr 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13401) | Send Message
     
    CW:

     

    It all boils down to one unavoidable reality of life, despite what all the utopian "fairness and "equality" crowd would have one believe: life's divided into winners and losers; it's up to each individual to make the right decisions and take the right actions to become a member of the former, rather than the latter. There's nobody that's going to do it for any of us, and those that promise they will are false prophets, who seek to enslave others in dependency within their own power base.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Dana Blankenhorn
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    “We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we cannot have both.” -- Louis Brandeis

     

    Feudalism is inherently unstable. It leads to revolution. Claiming it as a moral good is immoral.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • sean.parmelee
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    Your comment would have been relevant centuries ago, but alas, we do not live in a feudal system in America today. Our "poor" are so well-to-do that only a smaller percentage of them have Blu-Ray players and plasma screens than our "rich" do. What a pity. I don't own either of those products, so I suppose I am hyper-impoverished.

     

    The percentage of people in America who live in actual poverty--not the government's definition, mind you--is almost vanishingly small. This is not to diminish their plight, quite the opposite. Pretending that there are tens of millions of impoverished children in America with no shoes to wear or food to eat, when there obviously are not, only serves to discredit those who are actually focused on helping the truly needy. Let's talk less about the poverty of "the shrinking middle class" and more about the poverty of those living in, say, rural Appalachia.
    12 Apr 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3530) | Send Message
     
    Sean

     

    Last year our fraternal organization decided to check up on our head start population and make sure they had warm coats for the winter. Only six families took us up on our offer.
    12 Apr 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    On the lack of loan growth and the so-called "balance sheet recession:"

     

    As long as the repo markets are thriving with bond assets kept "stable" and stock/commodity asset prices climbing the Fed could care less about consumer loan activity and jobs: the Fed is already serving their primary constituency. Not to mention that Fed policy has no chance of positively affecting the job and business cycle except for GETTING OUT OF THE WAY of manipulating markets.

     

    Making loans on the back of such low interest rates is a risk-reward nightmare.
    12 Apr 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10389) | Send Message
     
    Whitehawk.....my heart took wings with your comment......way to go.
    12 Apr 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • jeff lauder
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    How many jobs are lost thru buyouts? Many 60 somethings are getting buyouts and getting UE. They then take other jobs that may not show up on the radar I.E. cash jobs, self employment opportunities etc. I think the job market is getting better, but being masked by the "Churn" of career changes and reeducation.
    12 Apr 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
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