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A rumor China's Q1 GDP is going to print 9% tonight is being give some credit for today's rally...

A rumor China's Q1 GDP is going to print 9% tonight is being give some credit for today's rally in risk assets. Putting aside suspicions about Chinese data, we forget - is it bullish or bearish for the number to come in fast? Wouldn't strong Q1 GDP lessen the need for monetary ease - rumors of which are also getting credit for today's rally.
Comments (10)
  • That effectively sums up the current environment. Stocks are perceived as almost risk free because everyone believes that Central Banks will do anything and everything to make sure equity prices do not fall.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • The Chinese official was misquoted. He said 9% was for the full year 2012. He expected in-line for this quarter. Got info at thestreet.com.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Q1 GDP is already including the monetary easing, it is a new method of GDP that has been developed. Why wait for the real numbers when you can assume the growth into the next report????? I call it half double-dipping which translates to a 1:1 ratio of b.s.

     

    I am long China growth regardless of what the numbers say. Besides these are all rumor right? So maybe monetary easing won't happen or will be less significant or maybe growth won't be close to 9 percent????
    12 Apr 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • please stop these rumors. we all know these rumors are planted by institutions so they can profit off of them. it has become so difficult to make money because all we do is trade based on the latest rumor, headline etc. what a crummy way to do business.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • my bet 4%
    12 Apr 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Government stats are unreliable, especially when they come from autocratic dictatorship like China. Even the Vice Premier, Li Keqiang, admitted that China's GDP is "man-made" http://reut.rs/qp5sgQ. The Soviet Union fabricated economic figures for decades before it all came crashing down. Electrical output/consumption and cargo shipments are the best way to gauge how healthy the Chinese economy is. The numbers regarding electrical consumption indicate that the economy is growing in the low single digits, which would mean that things are worse than what's being reported. http://bit.ly/HECAID
    12 Apr 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Right on JC51.. How can anyone trust the numbers that are made up? If central Chinese leadership perceives weakness, they make up numbers to make the economy appear better than it really is. If they feel it's overheated, they just skew the numbers the other way.

     

    This will hurt Chinese in the long run, when investment community realizes it's all just a shell game in China, foreign money will just pull out.

     

    It's the export numbers and other data that one should read to get a true gauge of what is going on.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Dudes,

     

    We are seeing a one time build out of the rest of the world during our lifetime. I don't understand the search for doom and gloom.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • This isn't doom and gloom. It's my view that central Chinese numbers are skewed to fit their interests, not those of investors - just as has happened with chinese small caps trading on US markets. Investor beware.

     

    There isn't 'one time build out of the rest of the world'. Economy has always been expending somewhere in some historical time frame, contracting somewhere else. England build motte and bailey castles in 11th century, stone castles in 12th and 13th century, medieval cities in 14th century, and wireless cities in 21st century.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • 8.1% instead of 8.3% and futures turned lower, a .2% miss isn't a big deal when considering their economy grew over 8%! We could only dream of such growth here. What's the big deal, why sell on that news?
    12 Apr 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
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