- Expected core PCE inflation for 2015 of 1.3-1.4% is the same as the March projection. For 2016, the estimate of 1.6-1.9% stands against 1.5-1.9% in March. In 2017, core PCE inflation is estimated at 1.9-2% vs. 1.8-2.0% previously.
- 2016 GDP growth is now seen at 2.4-2.7% vs. 2.3-2.7% in March.
- As for the dots, just 2 out of 17 FOMC members see the central bank holding off on rate hikes until 2016. The expected pace of hikes has slowed a bit, with the Fed now seeing the Fed Funds rate at 1.625% by the end of 2016 vs. 1.875 at the March forecast.
- Up sharply ahead of the FOMC news, the 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back a couple of basis points since, now ahead four basis points on the session to 2.35%. TLT -0.8%. Fed Funds futures continue to price in just one rate hike this year, though the FOMC's central tendency calls for two.
- Janet Yellen's press conference begins at 2:30 ET.
- Previously: Fed still on track for rate hike(s) this year (June 17)
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, BIL, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGSH, SHV, VGIT, SCHO, TBX, SCHR, TENZ, GSY, TYD, LBND, DTYL, ITE, DTUS, DLBL, TYBS, DTUL, SST, TUZ, DFVL, FIVZ, VUSTX, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL