Seeking Alpha

Much of the world's recent increased agricultural production and fertilizer demand has come from...

Much of the world's recent increased agricultural production and fertilizer demand has come from China, but both may be hitting a wall. Among forces driving the slowdown: China is nine years ahead of schedule on production of staples, it's running out of arable land, and it's finished converting land to fertilizer-heavy crops like corn. It could mean trouble for POT, MOS, AGU, IPI.
Comments (14)
  • That explains why they are buying farmland in Africa and South America...and anywhere else....they have billions to feed.....and now they want meat....
    18 Apr 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Possibly so, At some lower point the ag. companies will become decent buys though.
    18 Apr 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • time to plow under their glimmering empty new cities
    18 Apr 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • sooner or later farmers must fertilize so the crops will yield the max. along with water and hard work, sun and fertilizer are the keys to a good harvest. fertilizer is continuous, once is not enough, look at your grass,
    18 Apr 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • China isn't the only country in the world
    18 Apr 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • I fail to understand why some feel China is headed back to the dark ages now that their growth rate is down to 8% or so. Also keep in mind most of the countries in Asia, such as India, are major fertilizer importers. Many of the gloom and doomers are caught thinking the world revolves around North America.
    18 Apr 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Don't fall for that bull the PE are not expensive and every year you have the same stories speculator that wait for a sell off to get in .
    18 Apr 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • "9 years ahead of production of staples" HOW?!
    18 Apr 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Does anyone on this site ever CITE their sources for the "facts" that they assert? "9 years ahead of production of staples" -- who and where did that come from, the Chinese govt? I doubt any such measurement exists since it's impossible to predict the demand for staples 2-3 years out with a population shifting that rapidly. Also, where the heck is anyone finding measurements on China's "arable land"??? I mean REALLY!!! Arable land is a moving target when you have rapidly changing infrastructure -- i.e., sources of water.

     

    Finally, who was the source for the original story? Any of us could post that without any merit to the story. Ridiculous. This site is as unreliable as the comments section of any blog on the Net.
    18 Apr 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • The only 2 fertlizer Cos that saw considerable price action during the first quarter appear to be CF and TNH.

     

    I believe the reason is it's not about fertilizers in general, it's about Nitrogen fertilizers and the companies that have the most efficient distribution system in place.

     

    I've owned POT, MOS, AGRU and TNH during the first quarter, the best reward came from TNH

     

    Still long TNH
    18 Apr 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • This story has no basis in fact, yet it is presented as a 'factual story' to lead people a certain way. It's a shame that crap like this ever sees the 'light of day'. How manipulative on someone's part for planting this story and how foolish for the editors of Seeking Alpha to run it.
    18 Apr 2012, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Fiction. I LOVE fiction.
    19 Apr 2012, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Very long POT for what seems to be a very long time. So do I continue to hold or sale on the next move back to 46 and my breakeven position ?.
    19 Apr 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Few weeks ago there was a story from US GOV unlocking millions of parcels in the state with the choice to the farmer to farm or keep subsidies and not farm . The demand is here .
    19 Apr 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
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