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Initial Jobless Claims: 386K vs. 365K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 380K)....

Initial Jobless Claims: 386K vs. 365K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 380K). Continuing claims +26K to 3.27M.
Comments (51)
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Last week appears not to have been the fluke as was claimed.
    19 Apr 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    Are we using "oops!" or "unexpectedly!" as the adjective for these now?
    19 Apr 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • wapiti
    , contributor
    Comments (711) | Send Message
     
    Probably government "controlled" numbers to let Helicopter Ben throw some more QE money out there and juice up the markets. Remember,it's all about the equity markets being reflated! Need the wealth effect for spending cause the JOBS ain't happening!
    19 Apr 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    you donĀ“t need Ben when you have 46 million on food stamps..and 388,000 weekly signing up for unemployment....that is alot of paper being thrown around
    19 Apr 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    With all the revisions the 52 week moving average of NON seasonally
    adjusted jobless claims still dropped (barely 108)...to 393,125...
    19 Apr 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    But somewhere a new short to intermediate nth term moving average just turned up and crossed over. Slowly but surely making it's way up to the esteemed 52 wk ave.
    19 Apr 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    : ))))) nice.
    19 Apr 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    Please use that idea...good luck...
    19 Apr 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Simply math and logic. You would agree that a 4wk MA will turn up before a 10 wk MA and a 10 wk before a 52 wk? Please say yes. So, has any MA for claims turned up? Again, please say yes.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    NON seasonally adjusted numbers,,,,it seems you need to subscribe
    to an economic data service and do your own analysis,,,
    19 Apr 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Come on bro...the situation is in total stagnation. just think what it would be without the $trillions injected by the fed and near zero rates. Complete unsustainable economy. Heck debt held by the public crossed $10.9 Tril...Japan stagnation. The fed and govt figure they can milk another 10 yrs out of this status... Except the US ain't Japan. The US has over 90 million work age people...not working.....
    19 Apr 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/JNq6e3

     

    Nuff said.
    19 Apr 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    Zero Hedge...garbage...please continue to base your investment decisions on him....
    19 Apr 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Should I listen to bbro instead? Please oh wise one, let me know where I should put my money. ZeroHedge normally presents the information as it should be presented: the truth. They can be a little extreme in their opinions, but they present the information better than Reuters or Bloomberg or CNBC who just post the headline number and quote an analyst of their choosing. I don't think I'm the only one who believes this. I make investment decisions based on dissecting information from a lot of sources. It's ignorant to ignore the facts. However, "investing" in this market is a joke as every market is manipulated. I still have money in the game, but certainly not everything.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    If ZH puts up a chart showing expected time of sunrise is DC tomorrow is that garbage?
    19 Apr 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    probably...
    19 Apr 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    This coming from someone who last year when claims were above 400,000 wanting to know what was Rick Perry's job plan or whoever was the leading republican candidate at the time and whether or not Palin's bus tour was adding in jobs or anything else other than the crappy job that Barry, who was and is the president not anyone else, is doing.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Bbroke does not like any kind of truth.

     

    As a matter of fact, he can't handle the truth.

     

    Now look at him. A total basket case.

     

    This is what Propaganda does to you. Makes you weak in the mind, body, and soul (if you have one).

     

    Only recourse is to bash a blog, (mentioned NOWHERE in this piece that i can see), for no reason other than the simple FACT that bbroke simply cannot dispute this reality.

     

    He also doesn't have the BALLS to contest the claim in the proper forum, which is not here, but the very place he fears most....

     

    http://www.zerohedge.com

     

    Read it, know it, live it.

     

    Or suffer with the rest.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    Been trading for 33 years...
    19 Apr 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    You forget to Italicize a few more words,,,,
    19 Apr 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13562) | Send Message
     
    stop:

     

    ZeroHedge has had zero brains, when it comes to assessing the real world. They're a blog that makes its name by espousing their own particular cynical vision of reality. They persistently find negativity in any piece of news, then imply that investors and traders should base their actions on the "truth," as ZH sees it, rather than anything resembling actual reality.

     

    The consequence for any avid followers has pretty much been to miss all rallies and/or to lose their posteriors going short, if they took ZH even more to heart.

     

    It's rather laughable that Bbro gets attacked for not being able to "stand the truth," as he, of all posters here in SA, infrequently offers an opinion, but merely recites factual data, that, then, those that wish to infer positions have tantrums over because the data recited doesn't comport with their own view of the world, often influenced by the likes of the ZH's of the world, which are not merely data, but opinions.

     

    You may agree or disagree with the unspoken implications of Bbro's data postings, but they cannot be attacked as "untruthful." They are data; you'll have to find the "truth" for yourself.

     

    P.S. If SA isn't a legitimate forum for discourse on these subjects, what are you doing here?
    19 Apr 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    You are so misinformed it is laughable.

     

    Maybe after another 6000 comments eh?
    19 Apr 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13562) | Send Message
     
    stop:

     

    OK, it's a slow day; I'll take the bait. Don't make just claims; tell me and the world how I am "misinformed."

     

    P.S. I realize that it will necessitate taking time away from that "more legitimate" forum over at ZH.
    19 Apr 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Stoploss
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Let me ask you a question..

     

    Where above does ZH appear?

     

    All i see is "initial jobless claims"

     

    I did not comment on the jobless claims number, there was no reason to.

     

    So bbroke decides to attack something that has no bearing on anything regarding this thread. Right??

     

    So let me sum it up for you so there is absolutely zero confusion.

     

    I belong to a subset of job creators, who not only have figured out they have been lied to their entire lives, when it comes to anything financial, but are very, very pissed off, and have been for quite some time. Most of us currently are in the end of life cycle of our parents. There will be a mass passing of wealth, ( and a hell of a lot of it ), down to us very, very pissed off subset of people within the next few years. That wealth will most likely never find it's way back to this bastardized excuse of a "market" ever. I do not require a stock market for anything except for what it really is, and that is a legalized gambling forum, ( that does not serve free drinks ), to play with. It's like a big video game with payout in worthless fiat. Whoopie. I am fully aware of how much is required to keep the shorts down, who does it, and when they cover. That is also why so much trouble with the ramping of late because there is not enough liquidity to do both. So the meme of following some one else's advice to short doesn't fly, because we already know shorting won't work. ( i was able to figure this out on my own back in '09. ) SHOCKING, isn't it.

     

    My advice to you, would be to worry about yourself and your buddy, I've got it on my end, myself.

     

    Thank you for your concern.
    19 Apr 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13562) | Send Message
     
    stop:

     

    I've been officially retired for twelve years, and was unofficially retired five years before that. I am not a professional trader, have never been an employee in the financial industry and think Las Vegas is nice, if you want to see Cirque de Soleil. Notwithstanding, I have managed to make a very nice living, 100% from investments in the stock and bond markets. No real estate, no gold bricks in the basement, no lemonade stand, no rich uncle, nothing, but disciplined work assessing investment opportunities and implementing a consistent strategy.

     

    SA, and ZH even more, are filled with people, who think they've been and are being screwed. In fact, such sites, like the myriad political blogs, appeal to many who wish to commune and vent, rather than actually assess how the world works and to learn to cope successfully within it. The world is, and always has been, full of false promises, mistaken impressions, bad advice, etc. And, so it shall ever remain. There is no entitlement to make money, and more than the phony notion that somebody has a "right" to a job.

     

    The challenge for each of us is to determine for ourselves what is reality and how the world actually works, and to deploy our efforts and capital accordingly. If I make or lose money, and heaven knows I've done both, I don't blame anybody else for my own bad decisions, nor for the good ones. I take personal responsibility very seriously. I don't need a ZH to validate my pain or apportion blame elsewhere.

     

    Investors can be successful, or fail, in the markets, just as they can with any other endeavor. However, there are few other avenues for utilizing capital that offer such access and liquidity for retired persons, especially compared to other forms of business or investment that require hands-on active work and full-time supervision (jobs, consulting, rentals, businesses). Is there risk? Sure, but that's an inescapable part of life that so many seem to think can or should be eliminated by Government edict, making life 100% safe. Pure folly, of course.
    19 Apr 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    Actually I would rather you didn't listen to me...
    20 Apr 2012, 03:04 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    There is a pattern to jobless claims,,,nothing dramatic so far as I have
    seen,,,
    19 Apr 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    When you use a 52 week average, it takes a lot to move the needle so I am having trouble understanding how you use this as a leading indicator. Can you explain it a little better?

     

    For example, if jobless claims are averaging 350k/week and then spike for 4 weeks to 600k the average would move up by less than 20k which would seem like a small move. However, if claims went to 600k for 4 weeks in a row, I think there would be expectations that a recession was imminent assuming there was no obvious temporary exogenous factor.

     

    Thanks.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    That is interesting and makes me wonder, for research reasons, the number of times in the past that we have been entered an economic slowdown and/or recession when the 52wk average hasn't turned up and crossed some shorter MA for a better indication of strength/weakness in claims.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    Respectfully, subscribe to Economagic ( i have no vested interest)
    It costs only 180 dollars and look at the data yourself..and yes a 600,000 print 4 weeks in row ..you have a recession...everything is
    probabilties,,,
    19 Apr 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    True, no signs of serious improvement. We need jobless claims in the 100k range, and nonfarms in the 500k range.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10454) | Send Message
     
    A 52 week MA (retro) is by it's very math a "lagging" indicator.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    I'll give one hint...it is the other way around...
    19 Apr 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    I was genuinely being curious. My comment wasn't intended to be confrontational. I am genuinely interested in what your methodology is and what it leads you to conclude.

     

    My mathematical example was illustrative of how hard it is to move a large series in a short period of time.

     

    However, what if the change is gradual but persistent, which may be the case now, at what point do you know that the recession indicator is triggered using your tools? What is it that you are trying to see that will change your mind?

     

    How did they work in the lead up to the 2007/08 recession? At what point were you convinced we were in recession back then?

     

    Thanks I appreciate the feedback.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    600,000 with a NILF over 90 million.... You have lost your mind. 600,000 next time around is a depression.... Over 33% of the potential workforce isn't even IN the work force.
    19 Apr 2012, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    CW...as you so aptly have pointed out my writing is wanting. The 52 moving average had turned in the early part of the year 2007 but a confirmation didn't come until late October that year. I do use another
    mathematical method which confirmed the same. More importantly
    as far as stock prices they didn't show a signal until the first of the year
    in 2008. I do have another signal which is fairly good and showed itself in August 2007. While all this information was quite helpful it did not forecast
    the magnitude of the decline that came.
    20 Apr 2012, 03:13 AM Reply Like
  • Angel Martin
    , contributor
    Comments (1311) | Send Message
     
    ok so last week was a fluke due to easter, and this week is an anomalie due to .... ?
    19 Apr 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    bunnies.
    19 Apr 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    There is an obvious slowing in the drop like I noted..that does not
    mean we are near an imminent recession....
    19 Apr 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Bozerdog
    , contributor
    Comments (464) | Send Message
     
    relax regulation, cut education,drill more, everything will be fin
    19 Apr 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    ...because what is being done now is working so great.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • rasanders22
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Don't cut education. Spend more money on math and science and reading and writing. Get ride of the teacher unions and remove children the disrupt classrooms.

     

    Relax regulations but make examples out of people who scam the system. Make the taxes lower but get rid of many of the deductions. And my favorite, very vague idea, stop making it harder for people to break the law, just punish them more when they do. Everytime you try to stop the bad guys from doing bad things, you make it harder for the good guys to do good things
    19 Apr 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Ohrama
    , contributor
    Comments (515) | Send Message
     
    Forget BBRO. In electrical engineering, a MA is known as a lowpass filter (simple and dirty & hence better filters are used for your TV signals etc.) that smoothens the data. The longer the duration, too much smoothened the output is and the output is approximated 1/2 the duration delayed from predicting a possible change (like an indication that a recession is brewing). So, in the case of 52 week MA. it would be 6 months by which time a short recession could have happened. So, you need to use short time window on any indicators that you use to predict the future and they won't just be linear techniques (like the MA).
    19 Apr 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9841) | Send Message
     
    first rule of thumb is know your data...it appears you do not know
    non seasonally adjusted inital jobless claims by this statement
    "So, in the case of 52 week MA. it would be 6 months by which time a short recession could have happened."
    19 Apr 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3531) | Send Message
     
    So after 36 comments, what's the effect on the market? Confusion.
    19 Apr 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • rasanders22
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Half of AA thinks he market is improving, the other half thinks its not. The split is pretty much along political party lines.
    19 Apr 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Given the weak employment and other numbers lately, QE3 becomes more likely. I am convinced that we are going to see QE3, Twist2, kdghdkjrgh1 or fdngeh1 this year, whatever its name is. Timing is not clear though but I think June is very likely.
    19 Apr 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    OT ends in June. Maybe they wait a month or two to see what happens. Then if treas yields creep up, housing starts to take bigger hits from higher rates, they announce _____ in late Aug or Sept, and begin the program in Oct or Nov.
    19 Apr 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    For all those poopooing ZH... It isn't an investment advisory site such as SA... To treat it as such or degrade it as such is pure ignorance. It is an outside risk assessment site. It provides...in many cases.. Breaking news in the risk arena. Is it jaded towards some sort of market failure? Of course. It supports the assessment of houses such as Egan-Jones where WSJ does not. In this day in age, not reading all aspects is to get caught with one's pants down and bent over.....that said. They do warn about an economy based on constant liquid injections of central banks. Are they wrong that this is causing an unnatural run up in equities? Would the markets be where they are without said injections?
    The next questions would be...can markets survive without continued injections and unnaturally suppressed interest rates?

     

    Poopoo on them if you want..but their point is valid. Capitalism doesn't exist and markets can only function WITH intervention.
    19 Apr 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    I don't like this number - we would all like to see the weekly number come down some more - but the series is volatile and so you cannot look at a single week or two and decide that's the trend.

     

    The 52 MA and 4 week MA's are useful and wash out the noise.

     

    Believe what you want.

     

    But notice the data. Pay attention. Hospital elective admissions are up for the first time in over 3 years, Hair salon appointments are up and the spend per appointment is also for the first time since 2009. Same goes for dentists. Dig around and you see some other stats. Earnings reports are not just about earnings. This tells me that there is more going on out there than most of you are really noticing.

     

    All of us see the data. But very few actually understand it.

     

    bbro is one of the few around here who actually understands it. The rest would benefit from saying less and listening more.

     

    As for ZH and shadowstats - if you want to believe in voodoo or choose to use animal entrails to divine the economy and the market - go ahead. All you are doing is helping me.

     

    E
    19 Apr 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Bozerdog
    , contributor
    Comments (464) | Send Message
     
    When Crude hits $150 sell, until then we are in a sustainable period of growth. Take it for what it's worth. The hurdle right now is depending on a finite material to sustain perpetual growth...it isn't possible. There will be several more recessions that correlate to spikes in oil prices. Right now crude is a much better indicator of future economic shifts than jobless claims.
    20 Apr 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
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