- Australia's government cuts its price forecast for iron ore in 2015 by 10% to US$54.40/metric ton, a steep drop from the US$60.40 predicted three months ago and $94 forecast in January; for 2016, expectations call for iron ore at US$52.10 from a previous outlook for US$56.80.
- The government estimates the country's YTD earnings from exports of iron ore and other raw materials to China, Japan and elsewhere fell 11% to A$174B; three months ago, it predicted an 8% drop in exports to A$179B.
- The downside guidance is based on a weak outlook for China's steel sector, as production is expected to contract this year and next, while China's residential construction would remain stagnant;
- Outside analysts also blame over-estimates of China's appetite for imported ore by Rio Tinto (RIO -0.4%) and BHP Billiton (BHP -1.1%), as well as Brazil's Vale (VALE -2.1%), which continue to expand production.