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IDC estimates global PC shipments tumbled to 66.1M in Q2, falling at a sharper Y/Y clip than Q1's 6.7% and about 1% faster than expected. Gartner is slightly less harsh, estimating shipments fell 9.5% to 68.4M.
- Factors blamed for the decline: Inventory reductions ahead of the Windows 10 launch (set for July 29), a strong dollar (has led to higher overseas prices), and tough Y/Y comps caused by the 2014 boost in business PC sales caused by the end of Windows XP support. With tablet sales under pressure as well, tablet cannibalization is less of a factor than before ... but rising smartphone/tablet usage still appears to be taking a toll on PC upgrade rates.
- Gartner sees full-year shipments falling 4.4%. IDC still expects low-to-mid single-digit declines in 2H15, before volumes stabilize in future years. It sees the Windows 10 launch going "relatively well," but cautions Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) decision to provide free upgrades to Windows 7/8 users will limit its impact on PC sales.
- Continuing a recent trend, market leaders grabbed share from smaller rivals. IDC estimates #1 Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) share rose to 20.3% from 19.4% a year ago, #2 HP's (HPQ) to 18.5% from 18.2%, and #3 Dell's to 14.5% from 14%. Acer (OTC:ASIYF) and Asus (OTC:AKCPF) are respectively given 6.6% and 6.5% shares
- Curiously, IDC has Apple (AAPL) ranked #4 globally, with its share rising to 7.8% from 5.9% via 5.1M Mac shipments (could imply a 15%+ revenue share), but Gartner doesn't have the company in its top-5. IDC and Gartner respectively assign Apple 13.5% and 12.7% U.S. shares. In the past, IDC's Mac shipment estimates have been notably different from the quarterly figures Apple would later report.
- Near-term expectations for PC sales are already quite low, following Intel's (INTC) Q1 warning, AMD's Q2 warning, Micron's (MU) June 25 results/guidance, and plenty of other negative news. Intel's Q2 report arrives on July 15.
- Other PC industry names: NVDA, STX, WDC, HTCH