- Chinese exports grew for the first time in four months in June, rising 2.8% on year after dropping 2.8% in May and easily beating expectations for a decline of 0.2%.
- Imports slumped 6.1%, although that represented an improvement from a plunge of 18.1% previously and wasn't as bad as forecasts of -15%.
- Still, the weak imports indicate that domestic demand remains tepid and adds to the feeling that the central bank could further loosen monetary policy.
- China's trade surplus narrowed to $46.54B from $59.49B vs consensus of $55.7B.
- "A return to growth for exports after three months of declines is certainly a positive," says Bloomberg economist Tom Orlik. "However, low single-digit export growth year-to-date against a background of the strengthening global economy is not particularly impressive," Orlik cautions. "With real estate construction also weak, China's main external and domestic engines of demand are both misfiring."
- The trade figures come ahead of Wednesday's release of GDP data, which is expected to show that growth slowed to 6.8% in Q2 from 7% in Q1.
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