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High anxiety in China's auto market

  • Major automakers face pressure from a drop in demand in China amid economic weakness. Deliveries turned negative in June for the first time since February of 2013 and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers now expects industry sales growth of 3% vs. a prior forecast of 7%. Vehicle sales were up 1.4% to 11.85M units during 1H.
  • Volkswagen (VLKAY) relies on China for half of its net profit and 71% of free cash flow. Credit Suisse notes the China factor gives the German automaker the punch to make a dividend possible.
  • General Motors (NYSE:GM) churned up 40% of its new income and 20% to 30% of its operating cash flow from China, according to an estimate from Barclay tied to its downgrade of GM earlier in the week. Goldman Sachs and Buckingham Research have also recently cut profit estimates on GM.
  • Ford (NYSE:F) cut its sales outlook for the China auto market to 24M-26M vehicles after Q1. The company could revise the broad forecast lower again with its Q2 report on July 28 and reset its own sales expectations.
  • There's been some pricing cuts by the Japanese automakers (OTCPK:NSANY, TM, HMC, OTCPK:MZDAY, OTCPK:SZKMY, OTCPK:FUJHY, OTCPK:MMTOF) and German high-end sellers (BAMXY, OTCPK:DDAIF) as they adjust to the "new normal" in China.
  • Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) is still trying to get out of first gear in China. The reception to the Model X debut next year and the impact of EV subsidies are key factors.
  • Domestic automakers (OTC:CQCAF, OTCPK:GWLLF, OTCPK:GWLLY, OTCPK:GELYF, OTCPK:GELYY, OTCPK:BYDDY, OTCPK:BYDDF, OTCPK:DNFGY, OTCPK:DNFGF) have increased market share in China this year in key segments, but are feeling the same pinch from the drop in expected overall demand.

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