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Polls have opened in France for the first round of its Presidential election. Nicolas Sarkozy...

Polls have opened in France for the first round of its Presidential election. Nicolas Sarkozy and the left-wing Francois Hollande are likely to make it to the run-off in a couple of weeks, when the latter, who wants to tone down the austerity, is projected to win comfortably. For more, read SA author Marc Chandler on the importance of the election to the eurozone.
Comments (2)
  • PalmDesertRat
    , contributor
    Comments (2592) | Send Message
     
    The French say that in the first round they vote with their hearts,but in the second round they vote with their wallets.

     

    So don't be surprised if Sarkozy pulls it out in round 2. It ain't over til it's over and the fat lady sings.
    22 Apr 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4555) | Send Message
     
    PDR -

     

    What you say may well be true with respect to some middle class voters, particularly those who consider themselves well to do or at least secure. Arguably, however, the pool of such voters who didn't already vote for Sarkozy in round 1 is well less than 10% of those who will vote in round 2.

     

    The following April 22nd articles give preliminary analysis of the first round results in anticipation to second round voting in May.

     

    http://f24.my/JZNAwL

     

    http://f24.my/IhW8BQ

     

    http://bit.ly/IhW8BR

     

    http://econ.st/IhWb0A

     

    A couple of points should be made:

     

    1. Marine Le Pen of the neo-fascist Front National did very well but this result should not necessarily be interpreted as an advantage to Sarkozy. A significant portion of Front National supporters are from segments of the population that traditionally voted Communist (i.e. they are classic anti-establishment, anti-elite voters) and will vote for Hollande in the second round. If it was not for the fact that Jean-Luc Melenchon rallied a sizeable portion of traditional Communist supporters (something that has not happened for a decade or more), then Le Pen might well have squeezed out Sarkozy going into round 2.

     

    2. While Sarkozy will attract additional support from the voters that favoured candidates that are now dropped from the ballot going into round 2 (and from the 20% that didn’t vote in round 1), an overview of who those dropped candidates are and what they represent offers much better prospects for Hollande.

     

    3. Sarkozy is a strong campaigner and we should expect him to both
    (a) increase his recent anti-immigrant rhetoric, and
    (b) promise measures to aid lower middle class and working class voters.
    This combined focus will be designed especially to court first round Le Pen voters but this campaign will fall short. France is choosing change.
    22 Apr 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
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