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Hollande (est. 29%) and Sarkozy (est. 26%) are the top 2 vote-getters in France's presidential...

Hollande (est. 29%) and Sarkozy (est. 26%) are the top 2 vote-getters in France's presidential election, setting up a runoff between the two on May 6, with Hollande the favorite. A surprise, the National Front's Marine Le Pen is expected to garner 18.5% of the vote, setting the far-right leader up as a potential kingmaker ahead of the next round.
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Comments (7)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10451) | Send Message
     
    Just think if the US was multiparty....with no electoral college...
    22 Apr 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9973) | Send Message
     
    Should be quite the show in France for the next few weeks. Can;t see this being good news for markets.
    22 Apr 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • buyitcheap
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    What's the line on Carla Bruni dumping Sarkozy within a month of losing the election?
    22 Apr 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Venerability
    , contributor
    Comments (3048) | Send Message
     
    Gap closing very latest tallies. Could be only 1 - 1.5 percentage points. And Far Right candidate may finish 10 percentage points above Far Left candidate.

     

    Race is not over by a longshot. And the fact that Market Shorts Worldwide clearly are rooting for Hollande shows exactly why Sarkozy may now gain on him steadily.

     

    If Sarkozy can push an All France, pro Europe coalition, Hollande will have to prove that he is not really the candidate of anti-Europe forces emanating from the UK - especially - and some quarters in the US.
    22 Apr 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4559) | Send Message
     
    Venerability -

     

    Arguably the dominate theme amongst the voters that voted for candidates other than Hollande and Sarkozy is not anti-immigrant (strong though that trend is) but rather anti-incumbent (with a touch of resentment against German dominance of the Sarkozy-Merkel relationship). This makes it doubtful whether Le Pen could deliver here supporters to Sarkozy (even if she were so inclined - which is doubtful).

     

    Further, while Marine Le Pen of the neo-fascist Front National did very well, here result should not necessarily be interpreted as an advantage to Sarkozy. A significant portion of Front National supporters are from segments of the population that traditionally voted Communist (i.e. they are classic anti-establishment, anti-elite voters) and will vote for Hollande in the second round regardless of whatever Le Pen chooses to do. In fact, if it was not for the fact that Jean-Luc Melenchon rallied a sizeable portion of traditional Communist supporters (something that has not happened for a decade or more), then Le Pen might well have squeezed out Sarkozy going into round 2.
    22 Apr 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • User 353732
    , contributor
    Comments (5019) | Send Message
     
    The French have decided they will either have big bad Government or egregiously, big bad Government.
    Neither liberty nor opportunity have a candidate in this election. Assuredly people do get the government they deserve.
    23 Apr 2012, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • Venerability
    , contributor
    Comments (3048) | Send Message
     
    Pretty much everything I said came true - pretty much exactly - and they still staged another Flash Crash!

     

    Well, smaller market participants can't do anything about it.

     

    I just turned on - and immediately off! - the Fast Ninnies, featuring Pudgy Putz (who should not be appearing on air in the first place, totally against the best interests of his firm's remaining customers, if they have any) trashing Gold, despite Gold stocks now sitting at their lowest levels in 1100 years, 7 months, and 3 1/2 days - or thereabouts.

     

    I still fail to understand why the leaders of the world's financial system, in their infinite wisdom, are still acting like the 2008 Great Crash was the greatest thing since sliced bread and must be repeated, so the remaining eensy, teensy bit of the world's wealth not yet in the hands of the upper one percent of the upper one percent can be snatched away from the anyone in the 99.99999999999 percent who might not yet be living on the beach in a tent eating grubs. (How dare mere mortals try to take one penny from We Billionaires Now Elevated to Gods.)

     

    This is their last chance, IMO. A reprise of 2008, and there will effectively be NO world financial system, because there will be no financial services sector left to run it.

     

    As for forcibly imposing a market construct where anyone who actually produces THINGS - the materials, energy, and industrial sectors - is relegated to the bottom of the pack, while anyone who pushes clicks in cyberspace or the like - think 1997 - is relegated to the top of the pack - Well, there's been a very large generational shift in this country the past 15 years.

     

    The average age in the US is now middle age or above. And people over 40, let alone over 50 or 60, are just not enamored of a Faux Market a la 1997 based on clicks.

     

    We have already almost disappeared from the market. And if you push out the few remaining over-40 Risk Takers - like me and those like me - you are this time going to be left with an all-Kiddie market.

     

    You want the fastest possible deterioration, that's where you get it!

     

    An entire market of Nicks and Fabrices and Patrices. An entire market of young male "rogues," who have been trained in the Mantras of "Shorts always win" and "the more volatility the better" and "it's purely a shoot 'em up computer game, so treat it as such."

     

    The financial services industry worldwide has given their imprimatur to a market of piranhas.

     

    And when there is no fresh meat for piranhas to consume, they begin to consume their fellow piranhas.

     

    We are disturbingly close to that juncture now.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
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