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Stock index futures and the euro reflexively open lower following the French elections. One...

Stock index futures and the euro reflexively open lower following the French elections. One school of thought on Europe says the EU periphery isn't being punished because markets don't believe the austerity promises, but because they do believe the austerity promises. To the extent Hollande may lean against such policies, perhaps the situation will improve. S&P -0.2%, CAC 40 -0.3%, euro -0.2%.
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Comments (6)
  • Eisotrader
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    The second sentence of this, in pertinent part, should read ".......isn't being punished NOT because markets don't believe the austerity promises, but because they do.......

     

    The sentence as written makes no sense.

     

    Also, it's not clear what "situation" will improve, if currently the "EU periphery isn't being punished." Is the author saying that having a market selloff in the euro zone countries would be an improvement?
    22 Apr 2012, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Stephen Alpher
    , contributor
    Comments (548) | Send Message
     
    As written, "isn't" doesn't mean the EU periphery isn't being punished, but instead refers to the reason it IS being punished, i.e. not because of a disbelief in austerity.

     

    Seems like fairly common diction, i.e. "I didn't yell at you because you were late, but because you forgot the present." "Didn't yell" in this situation doesn't mean there was no yelling.

     

    Another alternative, "is being punished because markets believe the austerity promises, not because they don't ..." works here too.
    22 Apr 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • maudie
    , contributor
    Comments (480) | Send Message
     
    SA Ed: Thanks for clearing all that up, so what's the bottom line? Hollande may lean against but in the end go along?, may lean against but have no influence in the end? may lean against and join OWS to no avail? Sounds like a typical pandering politician. I don't know how leaning against improves anything for more than a month.
    22 Apr 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13992) | Send Message
     
    Anybody who reads the headline election results and thinks that Hollande won today hasn't read far enough. They were literally cheering in the Sarkozy election HQ, as the results showed a completely unexpected 20% for Le Pen. Those are much more likely to be run-off votes for Sarkozy than Hollande.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Stephen Alpher
    , contributor
    Comments (548) | Send Message
     
    Still a big uphill battle for Sarkozy who remains well behind in a 2-man race.

     

    Might the majority of Le Pen votes go for Sarkozy? Maybe, but not as overwhelming as one might think. A better way to read the Le Pen votes are as votes against the incumbent, and votes against the German (dominant)-French (submissive) relationship. These votes are not going to Sarkozy in the runoff even if Le Pen wanted them to (which she doesn't).

     

    This isn't to say Hollande is going to change the dynamics of Europe (or even give more than the old college try), but he's not the incumbent. That's probably going to be enough.
    22 Apr 2012, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • Perkins Cove
    , contributor
    Comments (638) | Send Message
     
    JAK said 'end of April'. And specifically mentioned the European elections. Europe is still a mess...and we were warned.
    23 Apr 2012, 07:24 AM Reply Like
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