All eyes on U.S. Retail Sales report next week

• Retail sales take center stage next week with a rebound for July expected after the headline number fell in June.
• The consensus estimate is for a 0.5% M/M increase, although some projections range as high as 1%. A reading in negative territory could rattle markets.
• Only handful of retail chains still issue monthly sales reports, but many of those that do reported positive growth for July. Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Fred's (NASDAQ:FRED), L Brands (NYSE:LB), Stein Mart (NASDAQ:SMRT), and Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) all showed pockets of strength. Mall retailers Cato (NYSE:CATO), Zumiez (NASDAQ:ZUMZ), and Buckle (NYSE:BKE) were disappointments. Full Thomson/Reuters analysis (.pdf)
• Two new factors emerged last week which could impact the U.S. retail sales print: (1) U.S. auto sales topped estimates for July; (2) several retailers warned later sales tax holidays in key states pushed back-to-school spending into August from July.
• There's also the question if Wal-Mart's (NYSE:WMT) Amazon Prime Day counterpunch stoked extra sales. The Bentonville giant and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) both reported strong responses.
• On a broader scale, the retail sales report will factor into forecasts on when the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates.
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