If it wasn't clear until now, Paul Krugman says Thursday's payroll data settles it: We’re...


If it wasn't clear until now, Paul Krugman says Thursday's payroll data settles it: We’re going to need a bigger stimulus. "What I don’t know," he writes, "is whether the administration has faced up to the inadequacy of what it has done so far."
Comments (38)
  • hedonist
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    To date, the Fed has spent $ 2.5 TRILLION on various stimulus measures, out of a total $10.5 trillion they have committed to spend.

     

    Guess what?

     

    If they had used the same money to bail out the housing sector initially, on a pro-rata basis, this entire mess could have been bypassed, no banks would have failed, nor would we have had the resultant disastrous effects on the economy!

     

    The intricate details of the stimulus are given here:-

     

    money.cnn.com/news/sto...
    3 Jul 2009, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • hedonist
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    The recession started with the housing bubble....
    And it will begin to end with an improvement in that sector.

     

    At the current sales pace, there are 9.6 months of supply of existing homes on the market.
    Compounding this problem, are high mortgage rates, as the Fed keeps pumping money into the system.

     

    The volume of mortgage applications filed last week dropped a seasonally adjusted 18.9% from the week before, as refinancing activity plunged, putting the MBA survey's refinance index at its lowest level since November.

     

    With housing in dire straits, there is a negative wealth effect; in this environment, with incomes much lower, the problem is accentuated by the savings rate flying to 6.9%; this further dampens spending power.

     

    When the consumer is not spending, goods will not be in demand;

     

    When goods are not in demand, manufacturing activity slackens.

     

    Capacity utilization drops and it has dropped to 65%, instead of 70%.

     

    This leads to job layoffs.

     

    In the meantime, we have the time bomb of inflation being carefully nurtured by the Fed, by the indiscriminate printing of money... this at a time when banks are not lending liberally;

     

    When they do, this supply, plus the trillions printed by the Fed will hit the system, resulting in inflation which Mark faber thinks, could touch 20%.

     

    This thesis will enlighten you as to why the Indices at their current level are a con and a danger for the innocent investor.

     

    To invest in bonds is dangerous, because the US$ is expected to lose about 50% of its value over a protracted period of time, due to the huge monetization of debt.

     

    Investing in gold could be one of the best bets but it would only pay dividends over a protracted period.
    3 Jul 2009, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • FRANKLIN32
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    The sad part of all this is that the Govt. (US) doesn't have a clue on what they are doing and most of Congress looks like this is a great time to plug their favorite pork barrel projects (which has nothing to do with getting the Nation back up on its feet). And guess who pays for their projects!
    Look for more of the same unless they learn from China on what to do?
    3 Jul 2009, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • nobby73
    , contributor
    Comments (1176) | Send Message
     
    If the problem is too much debt, how can the solution be to make more?
    3 Jul 2009, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • dw57
    , contributor
    Comments (507) | Send Message
     
    so far only tax cuts have hit the economy. with results that are easy to see. not much in the way of real spending has happened as of yet (most of that might happen as early as this fall at the earliest).
    so what we have is more proof (if it was ever needed) that doing tax cuts will not help get the economy on its feet.
    for all the FEDs spending, its not even close to what was out standing.
    one major bank had derivatives worth 10-20 times the entire GDP.
    3 Jul 2009, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • berated
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    The reflation of America, nay, the World should be given to Goldman Sachs. They've proven remarkably adept at making a profit on anything they touch. They're going to profit from this process anyway, so we might as well have them fix the economy while they're at it....

     

    :-)
    3 Jul 2009, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mozatta
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    So we're going with the "throw it against the wall and see what sticks" approach, huh?
    3 Jul 2009, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Vuke
    , contributor
    Comments (1662) | Send Message
     
    (with apologies)
    As I was going down the stair
    I met a depression that wasn't there.
    It wasn't there again today.
    Oh! How I wish it would go away
    3 Jul 2009, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Jeff Nielson
    , contributor
    Comments (2449) | Send Message
     
    Yet another blow-with-the-wind "expert"! Just a few weeks ago, Krugman was still endorsing Bernanke's latest, fraudulent prediction of a "second-half recovery" in 2009.

     

    There was NEVER any possibility of this occurring (see www.bullionbullscanada...), and there is ZERO possibility of "U.S. recovery" in 2010.

     

    Americans need to be in SURVIVAL mode, rather than indulging themselves in the wishful thinking of compulsive liars.
    3 Jul 2009, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. Ed, Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (745) | Send Message
     
    I noticed that Krugman didn't mention the incredible waste of money in the first Obama stimulus, or that it was designed to start to kick in as the mid-term congressional elections approached. But at least he called it "better than nothing", which is about right.

     

    Now he calls for another stimulus, even as the Senate is about to consider the biggest tax in the history of the world-- "Cap& Trade".
    And with at least a trillion dollar "free" health care plan waiting on deck.

     

    If Obama and the democrats had not wasted so much in the first stimulus (or buying car companies or funnelling money to Goldman Sachs and others through AIG), maybe we would not need a second one. But they were determined to pay off political allies with the first one, so now we all pay.

     

    They have already shown they cannot be trusted. But, as we now know, this is not about fixing the problems-- it is about "remaking America".
    3 Jul 2009, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • FB5000
    , contributor
    Comments (144) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Krugman is a famous economist and not to be taken lightly.

     

    But...

     

    These numbers are lumpy and just don't move in a nice steady progression. Context. The trend on losses is down. That's good. It will move around some more. Initial claims are dropping - that's good. At this stage it is a more important indicator than the monthly data.

     

    Job loss and restructuring is a necessary part of the creative destruction. It set's up for stronger and better growth to come. Like pruning a tree. It is not a cause for maximum panic.

     

    The market reaction on Thursday was overdone but understandable given the naivety of most people. Anyone who makes investment decsions on payroll data is loopy. And loopy people do stupid stuff. Earnings drive stocks. Payroll data tellls you what the fed will do and the fed for now is pumping in money. That's good.

     

    Here's the real problem. The data can lead to legislative panic - and stupid stuff in the congress like this cap and trade thing with the attached tariff proposal - to "save jobs". That is the scary thing. The idea that "we have to do more" and the "more" will usually be just stupid wasteful stuff.

     

    The correct response is to target assistance to the people directly affected - the unemployed. Give them cash to retrain/reskill/start businesses/move to find work. Support the people. Not the businesses that fire them. Help the people do not waste money on stupid schemes that prop up dying companies or industries. One is an unalloyed good the other is a dead weight on the economy.

     

    Yes. The economy is bad...but it is improving. Recovery has started. Earnings will improve. Job growth and inflation are a ways off. 2010.

     

    That' all.

     

    3 Jul 2009, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Henry Buttal
    , contributor
    Comments (404) | Send Message
     
    Great call, Mr. Ed! The only thing "shovel ready" about the original stimulus was horse pucky Congress and the Administration kept throwing around about how it was for infrastructure projects, when in fact only about 15% of the total, and a probably less than 5% of the money to date has gone into any kind of real dirt shoveling projects.

     

    I don't now whether Krugman has just lost it, or is now just so biased he can't see or write straight, but it is bad news for the Obama administration's handling of the economy that he even feels like he has to say what he says.

     

    I can tell you in various speeches BHO as just lied about the use of the the money and where it is going. But I can tell you $85 billion is destined for California....something Pelosi won't mention.
    www.recovery.ca.gov/
    3 Jul 2009, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • old boat guy
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    Krug has forfeited his respect as an objective (tho liberal) economist. His role now is Obama's lap poodle. He has set his course; he has nowhere to go but to continue---he has lost his place.
    3 Jul 2009, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • HiSpeed
    , contributor
    Comments (1308) | Send Message
     
    I realize that unemployment is a lagging indicator but given that the velocity of the sustained downtrend of it, I'd say there is no chance of any recovery in the near term. For starters, unemployment needs to abate, only then can can we realistically talk of any recovery and whether it's gonna be an "L", similar to Japan, etc.
    3 Jul 2009, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • reveigel@msn.com
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    Krugman is a disgrace to his profession and is also one of the most incompetent people to ever enter the field of economics. His comments are not worth the paper they are written on.
    3 Jul 2009, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Peter Schmotzer
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    The grossly misnamed "stimulus" package which contained little, if any, legitimate stimulus was little more than social engineering and pet projects for lobbyists. This country is being run by socialist traitors who are obviously willing to kill 200+ years of Capitalism in order to implement their selfish agendas.

     

    And if "cap-n-trade" passes, the Depression II is a lock. Even Greenpeace has stated (check their website) that the BS cap & tax bill does nothing to help the environment and is just worthless political crap.
    3 Jul 2009, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • FLBankster
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    I'm taking him lightly.

     

    His economic agenda does not eclipse his social agenda. Mr. Krugman is of the socialist-elite mindset and the mean to a socialist end is more government dependence, thus his suggestion for more "stimulus".

     

    On Jul 03 12:27 PM FB5000 wrote:

     

    > Mr. Krugman is a famous economist and not to be taken lightly. <br/>
    >
    > But...
    >
    > These numbers are lumpy and just don't move in a nice steady progression.
    > Context. The trend on losses is down. That's good. It will move around
    > some more. Initial claims are dropping - that's good. At this stage
    > it is a more important indicator than the monthly data.
    >
    > Job loss and restructuring is a necessary part of the creative destruction.
    > It set's up for stronger and better growth to come. Like pruning
    > a tree. It is not a cause for maximum panic.
    >
    > The market reaction on Thursday was overdone but understandable given
    > the naivety of most people. Anyone who makes investment decsions
    > on payroll data is loopy. And loopy people do stupid stuff. Earnings
    > drive stocks. Payroll data tellls you what the fed will do and the
    > fed for now is pumping in money. That's good.
    >
    > Here's the real problem. The data can lead to legislative panic -
    > and stupid stuff in the congress like this cap and trade thing with
    > the attached tariff proposal - to "save jobs". That is the scary
    > thing. The idea that "we have to do more" and the "more" will usually
    > be just stupid wasteful stuff.
    >
    > The correct response is to target assistance to the people directly
    > affected - the unemployed. Give them cash to retrain/reskill/start
    > businesses/move to find work. Support the people. Not the businesses
    > that fire them. Help the people do not waste money on stupid schemes
    > that prop up dying companies or industries. One is an unalloyed good
    > the other is a dead weight on the economy.
    >
    > Yes. The economy is bad...but it is improving. Recovery has started.
    > Earnings will improve. Job growth and inflation are a ways off. 2010.
    >
    >
    > That' all.
    >
    3 Jul 2009, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Wisdom vs. Information
    , contributor
    Comments (449) | Send Message
     
    new jobs and new wealth come from one place only: new capital. not only does stimulus does not create new capital, the federal spending hurts it in the long run b/c of the inefficiencies of taxing & administrating the spending. Keynesian economics has never worked anywhere long run, and Krugman is no Friedman or Volcker. Krugman has an agenda, and it benefits big corporations and the politicians that love (to deal with) them
    3 Jul 2009, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2636) | Send Message
     
    Democrats = spend, spend, spend. They are getting exactly what they want, to spend us into a depression. Then everyone needs government help. Meaning then everyone needs the Democrats. They really do think that taking us down this rat hole will solidify their power.

     

    Only the people can change their mind.
    3 Jul 2009, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • obamaphobe
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    "this settles it" Second stimulus? More government? They need to mull over their inadequacies? I'll help them.
    Let's see, where to start...
    ---the stimulative actions of the administration have a $787 billion spend that promised new government jobs and this week's report confirms that government jobs shrank by 52,000 this past month. This administration is so incompetent they can't even spend the money on pork.
    ---they bailout the automakers and subvert the rule of law so they can cancel dealers and brands, ship production over to China, give foriegn companies(fiat) control over American corporate citizens (someone needs to tell them that is unconstitutional if we still have a constitution that is) then come up with a cash for clunkers program to help government motors. Does anyone in the task force know that people that drive clunkers can't get credit and can't afford a new car?
    ---Those same people that can't get a car may be able to keep their home as government owned fannie and freddie are now advancing 125% loan to value. This is what helped get us in this mess, isn't it?
    ---Give the banks more money so they can use it to shut down credit lines and small business. Banks used to make money by lending it. so now that they have no real revenues and profits (other than welfare) what is going to happen? All that tarp money and a big bank with no collateral had to pay 7% for overnight money last week. One of the big boys needs more soon. Or maybe they can arrange for Government Sachs to "help" them out.
    ---Health care reform-just don't get sick. This is a lot more than an ounce of prevention and a lot less than a pound of cure. For sure!!!
    ---Cap and trade is just another bill that no one has read. His own czar and point person on climate change and emissions admitted on two networks this week that she hasn't read the bill. It's her bill!!! Are you kidding me?
    ---Transparency, yes, transparency--we can now see through you!

     

    3 Jul 2009, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • FB5000
    , contributor
    Comments (144) | Send Message
     
    Agree. Krugman's agenda is social policy not sound economic policy. That is my point.

     

    The real risk in these numbers is that they drive bad actions by the Congress, to spend on "shovel ready" white elephants or to support the dying car industry with some form of assitance or protection. All of which is just a dead weight.

     

    The numbers are fine and what you expect at this point in any recovery. The fed and treasury actions have been on the whole good. The stimulus package is irrelevant. All of that was desigend to win votes and "feel good" not drive recovery. There is no need for more stimulus spending of the type that might be proposed by the bubbleheads in the Congress.

     

    However, targeted assistance to support labour market restructuring - directed to the people affected can speed recovery.

     

    That's all

     

    On Jul 03 12:42 PM FLBankster wrote:

     

    > I'm taking him lightly.
    >
    > His economic agenda does not eclipse his social agenda. Mr. Krugman
    > is of the socialist-elite mindset and the mean to a socialist end
    > is more government dependence, thus his suggestion for more "stimulus".
    >
    3 Jul 2009, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • FLBankster
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    Appreciate the acknowledgment, but you and I differ on the promise of a "recovery". I beleive the government's efforts will only impede the markets' ability to correct itself. I don't think there is anyone who has power in Washington that is remotly qualified/intellectually capable of assisting the market out of our its present hole. That would require a degree in basic economics, which none of them have. The study of Law doesn't get into economic theory.

     

    Frankly, I think we are about to fall off another cliff. Aside from daunting mortgage resets through 2012, moratorium foreclosures coming down the road (not including the inventory sitting on bank balance sheets), mounting unemployment (not the lagging, trickel-down kind), and an impending Euro/Asia bank loan-loss deluge, the U.S. earnings multiples cannot be sustained at current levels...even in a perpetually irrational market, sanity returns for a few months now and then.

     

    On Jul 03 02:37 PM FB5000 wrote:

     

    > Agree. Krugman's agenda is social policy not sound economic policy.
    > That is my point.
    >
    > The real risk in these numbers is that they drive bad actions by
    > the Congress, to spend on "shovel ready" white elephants or to support
    > the dying car industry with some form of assitance or protection.
    > All of which is just a dead weight.
    >
    > The numbers are fine and what you expect at this point in any recovery.
    > The fed and treasury actions have been on the whole good. The stimulus
    > package is irrelevant. All of that was desigend to win votes and
    > "feel good" not drive recovery. There is no need for more stimulus
    > spending of the type that might be proposed by the bubbleheads in
    > the Congress.
    >
    > However, targeted assistance to support labour market restructuring
    > - directed to the people affected can speed recovery.
    >
    > That's all
    3 Jul 2009, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • FB5000
    , contributor
    Comments (144) | Send Message
     
    We agree on the bubbleheads in Congress

     

    But we'll just have to disagree on the rest. Market are usually rational over the long run and so they can be great predictors an indicators.

     

    Acknowledge the many and numerous issues but right now many stock issues are yielding more than their bonds. That isn't right. It tells you that one side has the wrong end of the stick. I will bet the bond guys are right so it means equities are undervalued. Spreads are declining, banks are doing business with each other. Normality is returing. But it will be the new normal of pre-bubble not the recent normal. We will not see the lending practices of the last 3 to 5 years for a generation. With that bank balance sheets will heal. Earnings are going to be very good and write-offs over time will allow adjustment. The rest follows.

     

    I don't see a cliff I see a series of climbs and descents but pointing up. Slow and painful but nevertheless in the right direction.

     

    The only risk I see is the Congress and the bubbleheads in there like Pelosi who are panicked by a couple of bad datapoints. I like the Fed and believe that they will act approriately to restrain the economy once growth kicks in.

     

    3 Jul 2009, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • fed_alchemy
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    They propose ,"the hair of a dog" for this spending hangover..well we all know throw up and rest is the only medicine. Quiet too
    3 Jul 2009, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • markfl
    , contributor
    Comments (301) | Send Message
     
    Some folks probably saw the cable program recently on America's infrastructure. Its not just a mess, its dangerous. Interstate highways did more for commerce than they ever did for defense. Infrastructure is a capital improvement and a better role for government spending than transfer payments. Construction actually stimulates business activity and hiring of skilled labor. I'd like to have seen groundbreaking this summer on necessary projects--important projects like the bridge that collapsed in Minnesota. The tradgedy is that all those trillions of debt didn't seem to buy us much of real value.
    3 Jul 2009, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2636) | Send Message
     
    It was never intended to show real value. Its is all about sound bites. The spending is geared to the 2010 elections and being able to show large amounts of spending just before the vote. This allows the Democrats to shovel their propaganda such that the youth, liberals, uneducated, uncaring, and minorities will believe it yet again.

     

    On Jul 03 04:47 PM markfl wrote:
    > The tradgedy is that all those trillions
    > of debt didn't seem to buy us much of real value.
    3 Jul 2009, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • mr clark
    , contributor
    Comments (727) | Send Message
     
    I am one of the skeptical minds that believes this looming depression
    was caused intentionally, set up for decades to usurp the great power of the united states to have us on our knees begging for a new world order...

     

    its working pretty good so far, and the current administration and congress seems to be in no hurry to thwart the coming train wreck

     

    why was AIG given hundreds of billions and allowed to continue as a public company?? why was GS repaid their 12billion through AIG, their full investment, just like that? you think we can get 12 billion worth of solar, wind, desalinazation put in that quick??? apparantly anything that benefits the masses and not the political and so called royal elite ends up as a lot of empty promises!!!

     

    Obama is looking at impeachment for promising such, he needs to wise up!
    3 Jul 2009, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Wisdom vs. Information
    , contributor
    Comments (449) | Send Message
     
    true that highways increase economic utility, but incorrect on 'hog'hway spending. building crappy highways with overpriced labor that MUST be rebuilt continuously results in higher taxes and less cap ex long term; the result is a more efficient transportation infrastrusture, but maintaining it becomes a new drag on the economy
    3 Jul 2009, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Wisdom vs. Information
    , contributor
    Comments (449) | Send Message
     
    i am in solar. let me spell it out for you naive types: the solar money is going to the big engineering and electrical contracting firms that already had idle employees-- and gov't contacts. those subsidies have indeed saved some jobs, but they have created zero capital and zero new jobs. yes, they have put quite a few dollars in my pocket too, but there is no way i can compete with Raytheon and JCI without juicing some lobbyists or doing something illegal. this is reality, wake up and reject Krugman and the administration
    3 Jul 2009, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Niner
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    "If Obama and the democrats had not wasted so much in the first stimulus (or buying car companies or funnelling money to Goldman Sachs and others through AIG), maybe we would not need a second one. But they were determined to pay off political allies with the first one, so now we all pay."

     

    I thought the first stimulus happened under the Bush administration and by the time Obama took office the money was pretty much gone. I'm all but 100% positive the Banks got their big bucks from Georgie Porgie. Am I right or not?

     

    On Jul 03 11:47 AM Mr. Ed, Jr. wrote:

     

    > I noticed that Krugman didn't mention the incredible waste of money
    > in the first Obama stimulus, or that it was designed to start to
    > kick in as the mid-term congressional elections approached. But at
    > least he called it "better than nothing", which is about right.
    >
    >
    > Now he calls for another stimulus, even as the Senate is about to
    > consider the biggest tax in the history of the world-- "Cap&amp;
    > Trade".
    > And with at least a trillion dollar "free" health care plan waiting
    > on deck.
    >
    > If Obama and the democrats had not wasted so much in the first stimulus
    > (or buying car companies or funnelling money to Goldman Sachs and
    > others through AIG), maybe we would not need a second one. But they
    > were determined to pay off political allies with the first one, so
    > now we all pay.
    >
    > They have already shown they cannot be trusted. But, as we now know,
    > this is not about fixing the problems-- it is about "remaking America".
    3 Jul 2009, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Niner
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    My ex father in law used to blame everything on the Trilateral commission. Give it up!

     

    On Jul 03 05:27 PM mr clark wrote:

     

    > I am one of the skeptical minds that believes this looming depression
    >
    > was caused intentionally, set up for decades to usurp the great power
    > of the united states to have us on our knees begging for a new world
    > order...
    >
    > its working pretty good so far, and the current administration and
    > congress seems to be in no hurry to thwart the coming train wreck
    >
    >
    > why was AIG given hundreds of billions and allowed to continue as
    > a public company?? why was GS repaid their 12billion through AIG,
    > their full investment, just like that? you think we can get 12 billion
    > worth of solar, wind, desalinazation put in that quick??? apparantly
    > anything that benefits the masses and not the political and so called
    > royal elite ends up as a lot of empty promises!!!
    >
    > Obama is looking at impeachment for promising such, he needs to wise
    > up!
    3 Jul 2009, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • 437339
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    niner

     

    Denial is the longest river in Egypt !
    3 Jul 2009, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    On this July 4th, when we celebrate freedom and the appreciation of our founders, who gave their lives to lay the foundations of our democracy, let's not forget that in three and a half years, we can push out the current federal administration. And, for Congress, let's send them the message that if they continue down this socialist path, we will send them home in disgrace.
    We can only hope that the damage will be reversible.
    4 Jul 2009, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • jofabian
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I own a condo and have an outstanding balance of $140k, consisting of $104k primary and $36k secondary. I took the home equity to consolidate debts. At the time the property was valued at $163k but now it is valued at $134k. I'm looking to sell because i am engaged and will be moving into my fiancee's home. Check obamamortgage2009.blog... If I have a buyer who offers me within say $5-7k of the outstanding, can i agree to assume a loan on the residual and pay the bank the difference over time with interest? The same bank holds both mortgages.
    4 Jul 2009, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • Niner
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    I may very well be in denial; but, you conspircy theorists have your head where the sun don't shine.

     

    The Asian countries specifically China will replace the US as the driving economic force in the world. With money comes power. With time, they will also become the most powerful country in the world replacing the US. The natural progression of things and not a conspiracy. Alexander the Great, Greece, Rome , England, the US to name but a few. Power the ebb and flow of history.

     

    I don't believe the conspiracy deal. Influence peddling, you bet, Conspiracy no.

     

    On Jul 03 11:52 PM 437339 wrote:

     

    > niner
    >
    > Denial is the longest river in Egypt !
    4 Jul 2009, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Niner
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    A voice of reason.........no axe to grind, no ultra conservative theories to push. I look forward to reading more posts.

     

    On Jul 03 03:54 PM FB5000 wrote:

     

    > We agree on the bubbleheads in Congress
    >
    > But we'll just have to disagree on the rest. Market are usually rational
    > over the long run and so they can be great predictors an indicators.
    >
    >
    > Acknowledge the many and numerous issues but right now many stock
    > issues are yielding more than their bonds. That isn't right. It tells
    > you that one side has the wrong end of the stick. I will bet the
    > bond guys are right so it means equities are undervalued. Spreads
    > are declining, banks are doing business with each other. Normality
    > is returing. But it will be the new normal of pre-bubble not the
    > recent normal. We will not see the lending practices of the last
    > 3 to 5 years for a generation. With that bank balance sheets will
    > heal. Earnings are going to be very good and write-offs over time
    > will allow adjustment. The rest follows.
    >
    > I don't see a cliff I see a series of climbs and descents but pointing
    > up. Slow and painful but nevertheless in the right direction. <br/>
    >
    > The only risk I see is the Congress and the bubbleheads in there
    > like Pelosi who are panicked by a couple of bad datapoints. I like
    > the Fed and believe that they will act approriately to restrain the
    > economy once growth kicks in.
    >
    >
    4 Jul 2009, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Not seeing the cliff, you will hurtle off with all the other lemmings. This isn't about a bad day on the markets. It's about a functionally bankrupt financial system backstopped by a functionally bankrupt government, compounded by the fact that is the world leader, and the currency is the reserve currency for the whole world. You need to understand the macro picture, and you clearly do not.

     

    On Jul 04 08:34 AM Niner wrote:

     

    > A voice of reason.........no axe to grind, no ultra conservative
    > theories to push. I look forward to reading more posts.
    4 Jul 2009, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2636) | Send Message
     
    That would be true in a government where the President makes laws, but you see in America the laws are made by congress. So it was Democrats that pass the first bail out as they had control. With that said, Bush could have vetoed the bill, but not vetoing the bill is not the same as saying he was responsible for it. Had he vetoed the bill, the Democrats would have eat him alive politically, so he had no choice. At least if you want to look at the facts.

     

    On Jul 03 10:32 PM Niner wrote:
    > I thought the first stimulus happened under the Bush administration
    > and by the time Obama took office the money was pretty much gone.
    > I'm all but 100% positive the Banks got their big bucks from Georgie
    > Porgie. Am I right or not?
    4 Jul 2009, 11:17 AM Reply Like
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