- The sharp rally from Monday's panicky bottom is typical, says Felix Zulauf in a Barron's interview, and these recoveries tend to last for a few days to a few weeks, before the lows eventually get retested. Thanks to the continuing collapse of the Chinese bubble, it's Zulauf's hunch stocks will take out new lows in the next wave of selling.
- Like Latin America in the early 1980s, Mexico in 1994, Asia in 1997, and Russia in 1998, China has a balance-of-payments issue. The currencies involved in those instances fell 40-70%. Even if the yuan only falls 30% (it's down 10% already) - with China being the world's largest exporter - the price deflation translates into declining sales, profit margins, and profits for companies across the globe.
- "Central banks can’t solve the problem by providing more liquidity because liquidity isn’t the issue," says Zulauf. "We have plenty of liquidity; we don’t have enough borrowing capacity." What it means is lower prices, lower inflation, and lower interest rates. "The stock market will have to adjust to this new reality."
- At the start of the year, Zulauf predicted the Fed wouldn't hike rates in 2015, and he's sticking to that view. A tightening now "will probably send the wrong signal to the market, and at the wrong time."
- Yuan ETFs: CYB, CNY, FXCH
- China equity ETFs: FXI, ASHR, CAF, YINN, PGJ, GXC, FXP, YANG, CHIX, CHN, PEK, MCHI, TDF, XPP, YAO, GCH, ASHS, YXI, CN, CHXF, FCA, CNXT, CHNA, KBA, JFC, AFTY, CHAU
- Broad U.S. large-cap ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS