- As part of Macquarie's pessimistic outlook for the potash market, the firm says its base-case scenario for BHP Billiton (BHP -4.2%) assumes the indefinite deferral of the Jansen project in Canada, which already has consumed ~$3.8B in capital.
- For Jansen to proceed, prices would need to rise to at least $400/metric ton to achieve an acceptable rate of return and probably to $500 to compete for capital with the company’s other projects, Macquarie says, amid its forecast for potash prices to average just $254/metric ton next year.
- BHP, which has considered potash a potential key division for future growth, says in response to Macquarie's report that Jansen remains the world’s “best undeveloped potash resource.”