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Dividend cuts likely ahead at big oil companies, analyst says

Sep. 29, 2015 12:15 PM ETShell plc (SHEL) StockRRC, VLO, COP, OXY, BP, CVX, SHEL, ANDV, DINO, PSXBy: Carl Surran, SA News Editor82 Comments
  • Oppenheimer’s Fadel Gheit thinks it may only a matter of time before oil and gas companies need to start cutting their dividends if oil prices stay low, as all oil and gas companies are currently funding their dividend through additional borrowing, which cannot be sustained indefinitely.
  • Dividend to cash flow averages 36% for the majors, Gheit calculates, highest for Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) at 41% and lowest for BP at 31%; 23% for independent refiners, highest for Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) at >29%, and lowest for Valero (NYSE:VLO) at <16%; and 17% for the E&Ps, highest for Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) at >45%, followed by ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) at 35%.
  • Net debt ratio averages 14% for the majors, lowest for Chevron (NYSE:CVX) at 11%; 17% for the independent refiners, highest for Tesoro (TSO) at 30% and lowest for HollyFrontier (NYSE:HFC) at 5%; 30% for the large E&Ps, highest for Range Resources (NYSE:RRC) at 49% and lowest for OXY at 9%.

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