- It's been a "remarkable turn" in relative performance, says Deutsche Bank's David Bianco, noting health care was about 1K basis points ahead of the S&P 500 as recently as mid-August, but both are now about flat and neck-and-neck year-to-date.
"We find this reversal unwarranted and think health care could surge into year-end," says Bianco, and if the move doesn't come in 2015, it'll surely happen next year. As for valuation, health care is selling for 14.7x 2016E EPS vs. the S&P 500 at 16x - this even as health care's expected 6% sales growth should easily trump that of nominal GDP and the S&P 500. Biano sees 6-9% EPS growth, also better than the S&P.
- Focus on the big picture, says Bianco: "We believe growth in health care products will stay strong owing to an aging population and increasing efforts to treat conditions with drugs and maximize the productivity of scarce healthcare labor with as many tools and conveniences as conceivable." He likes S&P 500 biotech, pharma, devices, equipment, supplies, tech, and tools, but is cautious on managed care and other healthcare services and facilities.
- ETFs: IBB, IYH, XLV, XBI, VHT, PJP, BBH, FBT, HQH, CURE, XPH, HQL, PBE, FXH, RXL, IHE, FHLC, SBIO, IHF, PPH, IHI, XHS, RYH, BBC, THQ, PSCH, BBP, XHE, RXD, CNCR, LABD, LABU, UBIO, ZBIO