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More than the entirety of the S&P 500's capital gain since 1932 has come during the 7 days...

More than the entirety of the S&P 500's capital gain since 1932 has come during the 7 days surrounding the end/start of the month, writes Eddy Elfenbein. "If you slice and dice any data long enough, you're bound to find some anomaly," he quickly adds, not positive there's a tradable angle here.
Comments (9)
  • And the first day of the month is by far the most powerful. Check this:


    SPX Seasonality You Can Play With
    1 May 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • "he quickly added" and was smart enough not to read too much into it.
    1 May 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • But there might be something in it, there are many seasonal components to money flows. There are some known seasonal components to stock prices, like the end-of-year effect from money being put to work on pension funds (that ought to perhaps be smaller now). It's not a stretch for there to be something that consistently brings in money into the market at the start of the month (like 401k contributions, wages or something).
    1 May 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • and the HFT algorithms don't know about this.
    1 May 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Seven days before and seven days after, sounds like a modified rhythm method for investing.
    1 May 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • One the 1st Day: Jamie did God's work and created money and the market. And he saw it was good.
    On the 2nd Day: Jamie created bonds. And he saw it was good.
    On the 3rd Day: Jamie created stocks. And he saw it was good.
    On the 4th Day: Jamie created commodities. And he saw it was good
    On the 5th Day: Jamie created high-frequency trading algorithms. And he saw it was good.
    On the 6th Day: Jamie created the muppets. And he saw it was ...useful.
    On the 7th Day: Jamie took a rest as the muppets did The Work for him and made him rich at the expense of everyone else.


    1 May 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Norman Fosback began publishing a seasonality trading approach utilizing month end and holidays starting back in the 1970's. Using his approach a trader is invested in the market less than 30% of the time but supposedly captures most of the market gains and avoids most of its losses.
    1 May 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • looks like europe and china are the bears because their gone today!
    1 May 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • And he captures dividend a little less than a quarter of the time, 7/30. Might be a quarter of the dividends. I don't know how ex-dividend dates are distributed through the month.
    1 May 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
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