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Initial Jobless Claims: 365K vs. 378K consensus (prior week revised to 392K from 388K)....

Initial Jobless Claims: 365K vs. 378K consensus (prior week revised to 392K from 388K). Continuing claims -53K to 3.27M.
Comments (24)
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    So.....where is the recession?

     

    Jobs growth continues at the fastest pace since the recession.
    3 May 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10649) | Send Message
     
    You mean the snail is kicking the worm's butt.
    3 May 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    No, I think what he means is that it is like someone being told they have cancer - just not the very bad kind.
    3 May 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • detto
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    I agree. Fastest recovery since the Great Depression.

     

    Obama has done a pretty good job. Four more years....
    3 May 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10021) | Send Message
     
    Good numbers....52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted
    initial jobless claims ( which means for you conspiracy theorists the revisions are included)....drops a sizable 1569 to 391119...no recession
    3 May 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10021) | Send Message
     
    For those who care about elections...big drop in jobless claims in Ohio...
    3 May 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Kasich is fulfilling his promises against headwinds blowing from Washington. Unfortunate though, according to earlier released reports, manufactoring appears to be stumbling.
    3 May 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    Elections don't matter anymore. The candidates are identical deficit-spending militaristic Keynesians.

     

    "Change direction"

     

    "Put American Back to Work"

     

    Stop arguing whether it's the Repubs or Dems that suck the most.
    3 May 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Wow..365K in claims (with an increasing 4wk MA and flattening in downward rate of change) is considered as good news? I remember couple of months ago when claims were at 348K,well not really it was subject to revisions, and 365K would have been cause for concern. Talk about shifting goal posts.
    3 May 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    The low was on 2/10/12 @ 361. The 4wk MA has been consistently lower.

     

    http://bit.ly/IpbLGd
    3 May 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Good Gaia put down the Hopium pipe and read the report itself -4wk MA is 383,500 up 750.
    3 May 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/IpvqWz

     

    As you can obviously see from the charts I attached and this data set, I am looking at yoy trends...not week to week changes...which is a rounding error, not a "downward rate of change".

     

    http://bit.ly/IpvqWz
    3 May 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    A 4wk MA is exactly what it is - a measurement that is weekly, not MoM,QoQ or YoY, and it is pointing up. Comparing what a 4wk ma was one or two years ago to todays 4wk is pretty much silly. Long-trends always show up as a short term trend first. At this point, almost all short/intermediate MA will be roughly flat because claims are stuck in a high level 350-400k channel for the past year. Run a regession line through it, its slope will, again, be roughly flat. At this rate, the only way that unemployment rate will drop will be if participation rate magically and abnormally falls...oh, wait....
    3 May 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    A rate of change is a second derivative calculation, not a data point to data point calculation....and claims have not been "roughly" flat over the last year....last year 464k...today 365k. And the PR has been on a downward trend since 2001...mainly (Chicago Fed Paper) because of demographic changes. If you have a Bloomberg machine, run a regression line (1,2,3 years)...you will see that you are incorrect.

     

    http://bit.ly/sBiT0v
    http://bit.ly/IuWjfo

     

    And please refrain from the insults..if you have a lucid, well thought out response, feel free.
    3 May 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Not sure what insults you refer to, however, you are right about year ago. let's start with the June number instead and slope has been flatting. Also, about the PR, I believe you and Pappaswamp had a discussion about that and he provided you with a massive amt of links from the CBO and BLS as well as others - which you must have ignore. Briefly, 16-64PR down..65+ up with a lot more data in his links. Look, I understand if you got caught up in the delusion of Hope and Change utopia filled with unicorns, fairy dust and rainbows, but it ain't working here or in Europe.
    3 May 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    Papaswamp and I didn't disagree on the metrics...they are obvious. What I didn't agree with was the truncation of the data set to three years to infer a policy causation when the trend started in 01'. With all due respect, I am a long term fiscal conservative who doesn't have to prove my credentials to anyone. What we might disagree with is if this modern version of the Republican party (since Reagan) have the right to even utter the word "conservative" when they attempt to defend their fiscal policy while they have abandoned even the pretense of a balanced approach to a balanced budget....and I am referring to the crack pipe insult...don't do sh*t like that.
    3 May 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • detto
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Jpiretti, stop arguing with a conservative. They only thing they know is how to spend trillions of dollars in wars so they can protect their rich masters.

     

    Conservatives are disgusting, spilling the blood of generations so they can collect more power.

     

    Disgusting...
    3 May 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10649) | Send Message
     
    detto.....how many letters have you personally written to the President asking him why he didn't keep his promise sooner to pull troops out of Iraq and why he sent more troops to Afghanistan?

     

    I suspect none, in which case, you sir or madam are a total hypocrit !
    3 May 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    ahhhh...that's much better...

     

    E
    3 May 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • runlong
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    PERHAPS IT'S JUST THAT BENEFITS (CLAIMS) HAVE RUN OUT FOR THOSE NON-FILERS...2 OF MY FRIENDS BENEFITS JUST RAN OUT SO NO MORE FILEINGS
    3 May 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • macombet
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Many are retiring - SS, many are out on LTD, millions per month.
    3 May 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Angel Martin
    , contributor
    Comments (1335) | Send Message
     
    lot better number that what we have seen recently...

     

    appears to be back on trend...

     

    however, look at what happened at the start of the recession in early 2008 for this series
    http://bit.ly/IFfXm9
    3 May 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • mweaver
    , contributor
    Comments (201) | Send Message
     
    rasmussen poll says that two-thirds of americans
    still believe that we are still in a recession.
    percentage of americans in the labor market
    vs population bumping along at 58 percent
    versus normal at this time in recovery of
    about 65 percent. we are still 5-6 million jobs below
    long term trend. we are not adding enough jobs
    monthly to even chip away at this big number.
    3 May 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Well this is the new norm so I'm not sure if you can call it a recession. The next dip will be a recession. This is what we get for government and Fed intervention. We get a dead economy much like Europe with persistent unemployment, a terrible economy, and no strong recoveries.
    3 May 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
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