- "Call it the triumph of hope over experience," says HSBC Securities interest rate strategist Larry Dyer. "The consensus forecast, including the Fed, is priced to the idea that nothing bad will happen."
- He sees the 10-year Treasury yield falling all the way to 1.5% by the end of next year - a full 150 basis points less than the Fed (and most economist) forecasts.
- As for next month, he expects a rate hike mainly because the Fed has said it would, not because economic fundamentals justify it.
- The 10-year yield is lower by three basis points today to 2.28% after this morning's soft retail sales and PPI numbers.
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