ESPN subscriber losses spur debate: Where's the bottom?

• Disney (DIS -1.2%) kicked off a great media debate this summer by pointing to (and then deflecting criticism about) declining subscriber numbers at ESPN, its flagship sports network.
• Since then, some analysts have joined in with CEO Bob Iger in suggesting that reactions were overdone. Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson disagrees, suggesting the numbers may have a bigger drop ahead.
• He points to SEC filings in suggesting that ESPN subscribers peaked at 99M in 2013, vs. a Nielsen estimate of 92M today -- which comes with a corresponding drop in affiliate fees for one of the richest channels in subscriber cost.
• With ESPN getting an estimated $6.60 per core subscriber each month, Jackson figures the network is getting $650M less in affiliate revenues and $250M less in advertising -- close to $1B less in just two years.
• Open questions: whether the decline in subscribers will remain steady or if it's already moderating, and what the effect will be if ESPN goes over-the-top (as the company is testing with DisneyLife in the UK).
• Previously: Disney call: Excited for 'Star Wars,' no panic over ESPN (Nov. 05 2015)
• Previously: Disney up 1% as it rolls out DisneyLife subscription service to UK (Oct. 21 2015)
• Previously: Disney down again, -5% amid broad media sell-off (Aug. 06 2015)
• Previously: Disney's Iger: ESPN could go direct to consumers one day (Jul. 27 2015)