France and Greece have started voting in elections whose results could reignite the EU debt...


France and Greece have started voting in elections whose results could reignite the EU debt crisis. Markets are apparently used to the prospect of Francois Hollande winning in France but are nervous about a massive anti-bailout vote in Greece. "We could see peripheral bonds and the euro pressured on Monday," says hedge-fund adviser Sassan Ghahramani.

Comments (4)
  • srspa77
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    Go Sarkozy!!
    6 May 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    The outcome in these elections isn't as critical as people think. There have been "socialists" before in France and Germany etc. and they were sometimes much better than the political crop (Sarkozy) we are dealing with now. Francois Mitterrand and Helmut Schmidt would be examples for "socialists" who were way better than Sarkozy ever will be or were. Btw., I would call them social democrats rather than socialists.
    6 May 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    TP -

     

    Well said. I would add that PASOK on Greece over the past 8 years has shown greater responsibility than its historic opponent, New Democracy.

     

    Turing to the current Greek election, arguably matters are not as dire as many will suggest. First, current trends with about 32% of the vote counted give three parties (New Democracy, Syriza and PASOK) together about 50% of the vote and give the Green Party enough votes to make this a solid majority if these four Parties can develop a common governing position. See the following two links which, as of a couple of hours after the close of polls on May 5th, show these trends and the basic positions of the Parties in question

     

    http://bit.ly/wrBwMj

     

    http://bit.ly/KttScN

     

    How in rebuttal to my assertion, it will be argues that Syriza and the Greens oppose the austerity measures at the heart of the bailout agreement between Greece and the Troika (i.e. IMF, ECB and the EU). However,
    (a) with the election of Hollande in France (and other recent developments in the Netherlands, Italy and Spain) it is clear that the Troika will now refocus on the need to develop a solid EU growth strategy to complement and reduce the sharp edges of the current austerity focus of EU fiscal policies,
    (b) the regional State elections within Germany this weekend and next will weaken the neoliberal and conservative voices within German political circles that have insisted that the EU adopt a rigid austerity stance to the exclusion of measures to encourage economic growth in southern Europe at this time,
    (c) Chancellor Merkel, faced with increasing isolation in the light of points (a) and (b) above will now have the ability to convince her Party that it now needs to reach an accommodation with the German Green Party in place of the Free Democrats and to offer greater support to an EU growth strategy.
    At the same time, the common thread amongst the four Greek Parties to which I refer is that they want Greece to remain within the EU and continue to have the Euro as the Greek currency and they all agree that the austerity measures are too harsh but must be ameliorated through negotiation with the Troika rather than unilateral rejection by Greece with the chaos such rejection would entail.

     

    In short, there is room for development of a positive outcome whereby Greece, the other peripheral EU States and the EU generally will continue with reform of their economies and fiscal management but broaden their focus to avoid undue contraction of national economies an attendant social and political upheaval. The UK will also begin to see merit in following a parallel path.
    6 May 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Gekko2010
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    For the currency markets the outcome is critical given the different policies of the Left and Right. No one is addressing the sensitive immigration issue in Europe that is set to explode in the next 20 years.
    6 May 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
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