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Francois Hollande has defeated Nicolas Sarkozy by a comfortable margin in the race for the...

Francois Hollande has defeated Nicolas Sarkozy by a comfortable margin in the race for the French Presidency, reports Bloomberg, citing exit polls. It will put the Socialist party in power for the first time in 2 decades. Sarkozy's defeat makes him the 11th EU leader tossed from power since the sovereign debt crisis began.
Comments (49)
  • funny I thought the French were socialists. lol
    6 May 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • More EU uncertainty and risks increasing. France & Greece and then what's next? Got to wonder if the equity bulls are starting to get worried yet.
    6 May 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like the French were unwilling to buy into Sarko´s flirt with the far right, THAT kind of socialism never had a majority potential in France anyway.
    6 May 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Eat the rich!
    6 May 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • There's only one thing they're very good for...
    7 May 2012, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • If it smells of right wing, get rid of it.
    6 May 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Not in Canada, sweetpea.
    6 May 2012, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • this could send equities in a tailspin as socialist economies in their nature do not grow, - we have been buying gold and silver over last 72 hours.
    6 May 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, smart move (not).
    6 May 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • edwin: you weren't invited to the party, .... gold and silver is the way to go in this market .
    7 May 2012, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • No.

     

    The end of austerity will be very beneficial for commodities and equities, and bad for German savers.
    7 May 2012, 04:52 AM Reply Like
  • Not today.
    7 May 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Another surrender for France...so more debt...more printing....plan on it..15% inflation or more...got gold
    6 May 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Yep, contemplating cashing out tomorrow.
    6 May 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • You short-term folks always lose in the end.
    6 May 2012, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • I said contemplating, but I am going to "raise" some cash tomorrow, this year is a repeat of last year.

     

    Get ready to hand back your gains for the year.
    6 May 2012, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • No doubt that this result leaves austerity, as the "solution" to present European problems up, in the air. For the short term, doubt and the irrational fear that the term "socialist" tends to bring out, should lead to a decline in markets, and a rise in the U.S.$.

     

    For the long term, a repudiation of Sarkozy's attempt to win the far Right vote by pandering to ethnic and religious fears, as well as waving the flag à `l'Américaine, can only be good for the world. If change must come, a response towards the Left during the Great Recession can only be better than the eventual European response to the Right after the Great War and the Great Depression.

     

    On a completely trivial note, while watching TV5 from France, it was good to see electoral maps where Right was colored blue and Left was red, as tradition and history dictates. ( Will Red China and Red Menace of yesteryear have to be translated to Blue for comprehension by future American students?)
    6 May 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Rich -

     

    I too welcome the failure of Sarkozy's attempt to win the far Right vote by pandering to ethnic and religious fears etc. It may, however, be a mistake to assume that a significant portion of Le Pen's first round vote did not actually go to Hollande today. It is a fact that areas of National Front strength (northern industrial towns and the deep south east of France) were, until the collapse of voting strength of the French Communist Party, traditional areas of support for the Communists. In short, in the first round many of these voters voted their fears and hatreds and in the second round they voted their economic interests.
    7 May 2012, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • This yet again another example of the French ignoring their reality in an attempt to feel better about themselves by electing people who do not understand that they will eventually fail. Reality will slap Hollande in the face real soon. Again, ecocomic depression and a national self loathing led to WWII. I am not saying that is what will happen, but it fuels the fire of imperialism in order to swoon the masses and cover up the realities of their situation.
    7 May 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • It won't be really exciting to watch until it washes up on the shores of America. We the People are demonstrating that they aren't going to pay the billls which benefitted the mega wealthy.
    6 May 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • What are you talking about? Social programs benefit the poor at the expense of the wealthy, and now they want to do more of the same. A new credit downgrade and forced austerity more severe than the ones Sarkozy made are just down the road, thats all. Now the French will just do QE like us and we can get into a currency war with who can artificially deflate their money faster.
    6 May 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Madav1138 - One thing the French can't do is quantitative easing. For that, it will take European consensus. However, they can do fiscal policy, even though there are rules that the French will have to bend/break to do so. The pressure will now be on Angela Merkel to compromise. Will it take more leftward leaning elections elsewhere in Europe before she does so? We are condemned to live in interesting times.
    6 May 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Rich -

     

    Arguably it is very much in the interests of both Hollande and Merkel to compromise. Firstly, if they fail to do so constructively the EU project goes into serious crisis thereby threatening the core goal each strives for and leaving both with the blame for the crisis and chaos. Secondly, Merkel appears to have gained added flexibility domestically to now agree to round out the current EU austerity pact with a serious growth strategy.

     

    Here is an interesting analysis given May 6th in a leading German newspaper illustrating how today’s election in Schleswig-Holstein helps give Merkel this grater room to accommodate the objectives of France and the peripheral EU States

     

    http://bit.ly/IxjQsg
    7 May 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Bob - Great to hear from you. From the German article you provided, I agree that this does provide Merkel more room and reason to compromise without seeming to have to give in to French pressure.

     

    As to Sarkozy's pandering to the far Right, Sarkozy did better than the polls indicated. Unfortunately it would seem that his strategy was working, but fortunately he ran out of time.
    7 May 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Hollande can now work the magic that has restored Illinois.

     

    http://bit.ly/IOgQLH

     

    There will be no place like Rome for the Hollandays.
    6 May 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • I am cashing out of most of my positions tomorrow...its gonna be a blood bath.
    6 May 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • That is a really silly idea.
    6 May 2012, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • edwin: we know your long and set to get crushed tomorrow, but hey, when facts are in front of you don't tell me a white wall is black.....

     

    gold and silver is the trade...also, .glad i put huge shorts/puts on equities last friday.
    7 May 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • last week, the market had already accepted Hollande win, look the french 10 year T-Bond (rate down);

     

    http://bit.ly/IB271X

     

    if we have blood bath, it should be from Greece or after the German local élection the 13th of May, Merkel power may be become weak.
    7 May 2012, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • Hmmm.
    7 May 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • So glad I decided to put my shorts on this spring. We are heading off a cliff this week.
    7 May 2012, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • It's gonna be a long hard week....
    7 May 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • China = Pseudo socialism
    Russia = Plutocracy/socialism
    France = Socialism
    USA = near socialism
    Germany = CDU loses/more socialism

     

    Bernanke printing more too. It's Paul Krugman's world. You're only living in it!
    7 May 2012, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • Funny how capitalism stumbles all over itself to commit suicide. Just when the socialists were dead, suddenly they are back from the dead. This is just the beginning. Greed brings its own empire down.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 May 2012, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • that is the balance like pendulum clock, go left, go right.....
    one day top management wish to save more profit and the company cost, they fire workers.
    the day after fired guy's are no money and can buy anything, the company go to bankrupt, that is the capitalist life.
    7 May 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Capitalism always increases the income gap, and this increases instability in the society.

     

    Capitalism without moderation is self destructive.

     

    Pure, unfettered capitalism already died in the abyss of 1932.

     

    Karl Marx was right until that point.
    7 May 2012, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • On the other hand, socialism cannot compete against capitalism in terms of efficiency and productivity.

     

    The real trick for society is to create a balance between productivity and equality.
    7 May 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • No you mean, a balance of communism with capitalism al la Gorbachev or the Chi-cons.

     

    I love how communists call themselves "socialists" now. As if Communist is a derogatory word, just come out and say what you are. I am amazed that communists now prance around in our streets in plain view, it amazes me that the goverment even asks the question on an application if you have ever been a member of the communist party. So because you are socialist you can plausibly say no.
    8 May 2012, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Madav1138 - When someone looks at the Left from the vantage point of the Far Right, it is perhaps understandable that he should confuse Social Democrat, Socialist, and Communist. This is an example of seeing the forest, and not identifying the trees.

     

    Let me further confuse you by admitting that my late aunt was a Communist. But, she was not a materialist, determinist Marxist. She was a Roman Catholic nun. She too would have been placed in that faraway forest on the Left, at least in her economic practices.
    8 May 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • I am not on the far right, I am just willing to call a duck a duck, thats all there is too it. I do not have blurred vision but very clear vision, you would like me to blur the lines because of who you are.

     

    Socialists love the blur the line because it gives them cover and deniablility to who they are, communists. Socialists believe in the marixist principles, they just call it an apple instead of a banana. You cannot confuse me sir, you are not smart enough.
    8 May 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • There are actually on two camps - producers and looters. Producers create very prosperous societies, and looters are always trying to figure out how to make excuses for their austerity or hoping some magical rebalancing will make it go away forever.
    8 May 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Madav - If I cannot defer to your reasoning, or lack thereof, you would have me demur to your better eyesight and to your superior intellect?
    Those who see in black and white with no nuances accepted, label themselves as well as the quality of their arguments.
    8 May 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • There are grey areas of course, but socialists are communinsts. That is the truth. Socialism and capitalism is a contradiction, and to say you are a socialist capitalist, where the two clash each other, one leads in one direction and one leads in the opposite, the two parts of yourself will rip apart. Socialism is the early progression into communism, its a lesser degree, where you argue as its more ambiguous. You may not have studied Marx or Lenin, and therefore you could be ignorant into your own tendencies to lean that direction based on the liberal influences around you. Capitalism to Socialism to Communism to Utopia. Read the book, it will make your own thoughts a bit more clear.

     

    I want to make it simple for you to understand, but you keep muddying the waters and your own brain is getting in the way.
    8 May 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Rich –

     

    The mindset that Madav exhibits has old and enduring roots in the intellectual history of Near Eastern and Western civilizations. Zoroastrianism with its view of the universe divided into two ever contending camps, the forces of light or good versus those of darkness or evil (with we all being called upon to discern and contend on the good side), arguably laid much of the moral foundation of our tradition. So far so good but discerning what is the good and what is the evil and deciding how best to reject and contend against the evil is no easy task and it is all too easy to inadvertently find oneself on the wrong side in retrospect. It is through an offshoot of Zoroastrianism, Manichaeism, that Islamic and Christian civilization was most influenced by this philosophical predisposition to see the world in sharply contrasted and arguably overly simplified black and white terms (and act violently in consequence against the perceived ‘evil’ of the moment) and Christian and Islamic scholars wisely cautioned against the distortions of the thought process that this could engender (Jewish scholars had earlier likewise been very careful in the extent to which they allowed Zoroastrian concepts to enrich Judaism). On the other hand, Manichean tendencies too often energize and oversimplify sectarian disputes between these religious communities and within each of these communities as well. The same can be said for political schools of thought which, arguably, take on for their adherents many of the attributes of the religious traditions of the civilizations in which they arise.

     

    Arguably Marxism is in many ways is a secular offshoot of Christian and Jewish thought as it had evolved by the 19th century and has been all too ready to exhibit these Manichean tendencies. Democratic Socialism and Social Democratic thought at their best struggle to avoid this Manichean heresy (as do Liberal and Libertarian thinkers on the more free market part of the political spectrum). Interestingly, as you are suggesting in your dialogue with Madav, many of those who see themselves as polar opposites of Marxists and their ilk are like the Communists quick to become full throated Manichean in their world view.

     

    These Manichean tendencies of the polar opposites of Marxists allow them to lump together all those who disagree with their enthusiasms (presumably everybody to the left of President Eisenhower is a commie whether they know it or not – the truth will come out when such miscreants gain power) and to totally reject such people and all their works. It also so simplifies their thought process that one fact (there are a lot of commies out there and they are bad) serves to explain too much (i.e. something that seems to explain everything actually avoids explaining much at all).

     

    All that I’m saying is that we all must take care to avoid the jihadist impulses lurking in our historical philosophical too kit.
    8 May 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Bob, you are very long winded without saying much other than trying to show how much you can google search in a few minutes. I have over simplified in order to get to the point, which aparently you cannot do. Simplifiying does not mean I am narrow minded or have limited insight. You are nothing more than an arm chair scholar, an ameture, so please take your philosophies else where, as I do not oppose all and everything that does not fit in my point of view. You are also, judging me by a few words, you don't know me, just one opinion I have made.
    8 May 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • madav -

     

    My comment was directed at the "mindset that Madav exhibits"; in other words, the comments in this thread that you directed to Rich. I wouldn't presume to judge you as a person as I don't know you (and try generally to avoid misdirected efforts at judging others).

     

    On the other hand, might you be judging me on rather skimpy evidence?
    8 May 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • I guess the real two camps of people are those that put people into different camps and those that say they don't by putting people into the different camps of those that do and those that don't.
    8 May 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper

     

    touché!
    8 May 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • We can agree to stand in opposite corners!
    8 May 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
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