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Barron's Roundtable gets together

Jan. 16, 2016 3:34 PM ETEVERTEC, Inc. (EVTC) StockCPN, BPOP, NICE, EVTC, COMMBy: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor6 Comments
  • The group got together last Monday, meaning it had the year's ugly first week to mull over, but not the year's equally ugly second week. Jeff Gundlach is a new member and fans won't be surprised at his bearish macro outlook.
  • He's been outspokenly against the Fed's tightening monetary policy and drops a few interesting points: There's only a 60-basis point difference between GDP growth rates in the U.S. and Europe - with European GDP actually trending higher while U.S. GDP tracks lower. Yet the ECB has set negative rates and is talking about boosting QE, while Fed has eliminated QE and is raising rates. More? Of 118 Fed rate hikes since about 1945, nominal GDP was above 5.5% on 112 of those occasions, and averaged 8.6%. Only twice since 1945 has the Fed boosted while GDP was below 4.5% - the last time was 1982, and the central bank had to reverse course almost immediately. Nominal GDP today looks to be headed to about 2%.
  • As for stock picks, Oscar Schafer finds a number of beaten-up names. Among them is Evertec (NYSE:EVTC), which owns the transaction-processing business in Puerto Rico (it was spun out of BPOP in 2010). Suffice it to say, Evertec is being penalized by its domicile. But the company is expanding across Central and South America. Even if things don't improve in Puerto Rico, the company should do fine. If things get better there, the stock's a home run.
  • His other favorites: Calpine (NYSE:CPN), CommScope Holding (NASDAQ:COMM), and NICE-Systems (NASDAQ:NICE).

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