Chip stocks outperform following Xilinx's earnings; AMD leads the way

• Chip stocks fared well (SOXX +1.5%) on a day the Nasdaq was nearly flat. The gains came after FPGA maker Xilinx (XLNX +8.6%) beat calendar Q4 sales estimates, issued solid Q1 guidance, and published an 8-K filing that has fueled hopes the company will join the ranks of chip firms to be acquired during the industry's M&A wave.
• Also: Microcontroller and SRAM/NOR flash memory maker Cypress Semi (CY +7.6%) affirmed its Q4 guidance against a backdrop of low expectations.
• Seeing the biggest gains was AMD (AMD +16.1%), which is two days removed from providing weak Q1 guidance to go with a Q4 sales beat. In spite of the guidance and the largely downbeat analyst commentary that has followed, AMD is now up 7% since the Q4 report arrived. Short-covering is likely helping - 120.4M shares (19% of the float) were shorted as of Dec. 31.
• Small-cap Xilinx rival Lattice Semi (LSCC +10.8%) was also a standout. Lattice (like Xilinx) has seen its share of M&A speculation, and CEO Darin Billerbeck has suggested he's open to a sale.
• Other notable gainers include Cavium (CAVM +3.6%), Silicon Motion (SIMO +3.7%), and Knowles (KN +6.5%) - Cavium is exposed to some of the same end-markets as Xilinx. MagnaChip (MX +13.9%) jumped two days after making a positive Q4 pre-announcement. Beaten-down Micron (MU +8%) also rallied strongly, possibly aided by a bullish Morgan Stanley note.
• On its earnings call (transcript), Xilinx mentioned the automotive market (a strong point for many chip companies, as chip content within cars steadily grows) is expected to see record sales in calendar Q1, and deliver 30% sales growth for FY16 (ends in March). Mobile infrastructure-related sales are expected to rise Q/Q, but deemed unlikely to reach a March 2014 peak anytime soon. CEO Moshe Gavrielov: "[E]verything until 2020 is likely to be of a smaller scale and the next big surge will be driven by 5G."
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