- Morgan Stanley analyst Evan Kurt expects steel prices to continue to rise and average $445/ton in 2016, which he says may result in downward revisions to Wall Street estimates for U.S. Steel (X -1.2%), AK Steel (AKS -1%) and Nucor (NUE +0.2%).
- Kurt calls Steel Dynamics "the safest way to play a modest steel market recovery,” while heavily shorted names such as X and AKS could squeeze into results, "but we would sell the news."
- The firm rates STLD at Overweight with a $27 price target, while X, AKS and NUE are all rated Equal Weight with respective targets of $19, $5 and $59; Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF -7.3%), rated Underweight with a $2 target, is called a “high cost producer in an oversupplied iron ore market.”
- "No need to own coal names into the quarter,” Kurt writes, as coal market conditions have deteriorated with a warmer than normal winter leading to large build-ups of coal inventories; he downgrades Consol Energy (CNX -0.8%) and Foresight Energy (FELP +11.4%) to Equal Weight with respective $29 and $12 price target.