Roundy's (RNDY): Q1 EPS of $0.28 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $938.2M (+2.4% Y/Y) in-line. Shares...

Roundy's (RNDY): Q1 EPS of $0.28 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $938.2M (+2.4% Y/Y) in-line. Shares -6.9% AH. (PR)
Comments (9)
  • BaccoE
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
    What was announced to warrant a 9% drop in the after-market trading?
    10 May 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • JB II
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
    A few notes and tips for the next round of questioning by the analysts:


    1) Ask if any payroll is being shifted from the Mariano's stores to the Wisconsin stores to make the new operations look better. In the alternative, ask if all the labor from the Wisconsin stores, that actually work in the Mariano's stores, is being charged off to the store where the employee is physically working.


    2) Inquire as to how the payroll and gross margins in the Mariano's stores compares with the overall chain.


    3) Even in the broadest perspective, ask whether the representation that the Mariano's are "cash flow positive as a group" accounts for any ROI specific to those stores.


    Bob Mariano is literally vanquishing his former employer (Dominicks), but the market share gains are being bought at a price which is not sustainable. Pricing at Mariano's is already beginning to increase to minimize cash flow losses.
    11 May 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • jdstanhaus
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
    There seemed to be a lot of discussion about lowering the anticipated full year % margins, due to increased competitive pressure. Evidently this might have been a shock as they recently went public, and may have given some full year guidance as part of they road show.
    All interesting questions. I've never heard Mariano to have a reputation for misleading investors, and he did indicate that overall the Mariano stores would not have an impact on overall margins until the second half of 2013, so in the mean time it is all noise. I live in Chicago and have visited the new store on Western and it is pretty special. And I have never seen as many men in white shirts and black slack and ties and I did there, so I'm thinking that they are putting a lot of people into the mix. That being said their training is pretty good - upon leaving one of the shopping cart wranglers asked if I has any questions or if I had any trouble finding things, so they are on their way.
    11 May 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • muoio
    , contributor
    Comments (2924) | Send Message
    There seems to be a hell of a lot going on following the recent offering----so so for a micro-cap....but that is even scarier as it really is a small biz.


    Real question is does anyone working there actually know what is going on or there going to be a surprise a quarter?


    What is up with the $.23/Q?
    11 May 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • JB II
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
    To jdstanhaus:


    For clarification, I do not believe anyone is being misled, this is a common industry practice for a finite period of time, for salaried employees, for "grand opening" stores. Please see notes below. The 256.77 is Roundy's announced gross profit margin. Assuming a 20.53% margin on the Mariano's stores, the numbers "conveniently" balance.


    Total Sales All Stores 3/31/2012 938.25
    Subtract Approximate Sales Contributed By Mariano's 51.25
    Total Sales: All Other Stores 887
    Assumed Net Margin Dollars After Subtracting Assumed Mariano's


    Margin Dollars (All Other Stores) 246.25 27.76%
    Assumed Mariano's Margin Dollars 10.52 20.53%


    I Would Hypothesize That The Promotional Dollars Referenced By Mariano's Is A Subtle Reference To Mariano's Loss Leader Pricing


    256.77 27.37%
    11 May 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • muoio
    , contributor
    Comments (2924) | Send Message
    JB---maybe a good analysis...but I checked out of 3K shares late friday....I cannot stand managers that do NOT understand their businesses and I will not hang around while they get educated.


    +47% to +22% in a day. That's even better than Jamie Dimond!
    12 May 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • JB II
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
    From: David Livingston ...... djlresearch


    The same store sales drop is actually much worse because we had 3-4% inflation. So same store sales really dropped about 6%.


    Now we have Walmart opening 20-25 stores in the next 3 years in SE Wisconsin. If you think the Packers had an affect, wait until you get a load of 25 Walmarts. Meijer has announced several new supercenters. Hy-Vee and Woodmans are opening at least 2 stores each. The competitors are expected to flood the market with new stores and we should see same store sales dropping about 7% a year, here, now, and forever. Simply because there is no way Roundys can magically invent a new way to sell groceries.
    12 May 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • JB II
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
    From: ....... bobmisanidiot


    Sure you want the scoop about the dividend. Willis Stein borrowed 100's of millions against the company to pay themselves a huge dividend not once but twice. That is how the company got so far in debt. They then tried to sell the company several times but were unsuccessful. So as a last resort for WS to get out from underneath the Galloping Gurdy of retail they decided to IPO it and sell there shares hand over fist. Look it up if you don't believe me! They are by far the worst run retailer out there. Any one doing just an ounce of research could figure this out. There management team did a wonderful job for Willis Stein but for actually making money the correct way in retail it is a laughing stock. Ask Festival Foods they know they can go into any market and kick the crap out of any Pick & Save, Copps they are just a small time player and its only a matter of time before the big boys figure this out and the Mariano ship sinks. My advice Short the heck out of this because if someone does not buy it out with in a couple of years or so it will be on the pink sheets. They blamed decrease in Same store sales on the Packers play-offs LMAO what a joke!
    12 May 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • muoio
    , contributor
    Comments (2924) | Send Message
    Thanx for the insight...glad I am gone and for good.


    Good trading.
    13 May 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
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